Patrick M. Cronin

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While Iranian leaders prepare to pause on their nuclear program, Russia and North Korea appear locked in a contest for chief nuclear menace.

Both Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un are engaging in saber rattling to demonstrate their imagined willingness to go to the verge of nuclear war to extract diplomatic concessions, create fissures among risk-averse adversaries and sway domestic audiences. And while their goals and situations differ markedly, each unquestionably endangers international security.

Russia's latest taunt is bomber diplomacy. (Apparently submarine sightings off the coast of Sweden are deemed too subtle to frighten Europe and North America and to send the message that they should back off from opposing Russia's desire for a greater sphere of influence over its near abroad.)…  Seguir leyendo »

Advancements in Iranian missile capabilities are driving Gulf Arab countries to cooperate on a theater-wide missile defense system. The fear is that Iran could launch missiles at refineries, population centers, oil tankers and naval forces if conflict erupted. To deter and, if necessary, destroy Iranian missiles, the United States is championing a defense shield across the Arabian Peninsula, covering Kuwait to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

But pronouncements are easier to make than to realize in practice. Can these Gulf nations overcome their differences for their mutual protection? Is U.S. diplomacy sufficient to forge such collaboration?

The proposal occurs amid escalating tensions with Iran.…  Seguir leyendo »

This month’s maritime standoff between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea isn’t the first time the region’s navies have gone toe-to-toe. But while past tensions revolved around resources under the ocean floor, this most recent event is part of a growing strategic rivalry pitting Chinese power against the United States and its East Asian allies. How Washington responds may determine the prospects for continued peace in the Pacific.

The latest crisis arose after the pocket-size Philippine Navy, with an old United States Coast Guard cutter as its new flagship, tried to apprehend Chinese fishermen it claimed were operating illegally near the Scarborough Shoal.…  Seguir leyendo »