Paul Stevens

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Students gather to protest inaction on climate change in front of the parliament building in Oslo, Norway on 22 March 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, it was clear that the world is undergoing a transition away from fossil fuels and carbon-intensive sectors, towards renewable energy and clean growth. The collapse of oil demand and prices have simply compounded the challenges that oil and gas producers already faced.

What happens next will have significant implications for Norway, as one of the world’s largest exporters of both energy and capital, and for the UK, as it plans its recovery and looks ahead to its hosting of the next major climate change summit in 2021 - COP26.

While the speed and scale of the transition has always been uncertain and contested, an accelerated transition with deep implications for future oil and gas demand looks plausible.…  Seguir leyendo »

Satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: Getty Images.

The assassination of General Qassem Soleimani has created much speculation about the possible impact on oil markets and – although any impact will very much depend upon what happens next in terms of political and military responses – theoretically the potential exists for Iran to seriously destabilize oil markets, raising oil prices.

Arguably, it would be in Iran’s interest to do so. It would certainly hurt Trump’s possibility of a second term if higher prices were to last for some time as the 2020 presidential election gets underway. And it would also help shore up Iran’s failing economy.

The assassination did initially cause oil prices to rise by a few dollars before quickly falling back, and the missile attacks by Iran produced a similar response.…  Seguir leyendo »

Oil workers protest alleged pay cuts and plans to privatise parts of the oil sector in a 2016 strike which slashed Kuwait's production output. Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT/AFP/Getty Images.

News that an agreement to cut OPEC production was reached came as no surprise, as the hype surrounding the November 30 meeting would have led to a price collapse if a deal was not struck, especially in light of the Algiers agreement to cut back in September.

Fear of this potential collapse was sufficient to sideline the real and deep divisions between Riyadh and Tehran that go far beyond oil. Some form of agreement, no matter how anodyne was essential and, as expected, the market immediately responded positively with typical irrational exuberance as Brent quickly moved above $54 per barrel.

But a more careful reflection suggests that the deal is unlikely to support prices much higher for any period of time, due to several factors.…  Seguir leyendo »