Globalization is inevitable and nothing about the presidential campaign changed that.
Ever since merchants first moved among human settlements, people have exchanged goods, blended cultures and specialized to create wealth, but trade also creates winners and losers. Donald Trump has seized on an enduring truth: whether America or any nation wins or loses depends on how well it manages the process.
Negotiating NAFTA and the bilateral agreement permitting China to join the World Trade Organization, Ottawa, Mexico City and Beijing were not looking out for American businesses and workers — that was Washington’s job and it didn’t do it very well.… Seguir leyendo »
The nuclear deal with Iran will prove unenforceable. Ultimately, Tehran will become the dominant economic and military power in the Middle East and if it chooses, build nuclear weapons.
The United States was successful in assembling an international coalition to impose tough economic sanctions. Restrictions on access to technology, international banks and their electronic payments systems imposed double digit unemployment and inflation and brought Iran to the negotiating table.
Simply, finding buyers for oil shipped via 3 million barrel supertankers was one thing, but the inability to transfer funds through western banks made securing $150 million payments quite another.
The Obama Administration sought to dismantle Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure—including its underground centrifuge machines, which enrich uranium into fissionable material.… Seguir leyendo »
Russia will not cede control of the Crimea any time soon.
Western saber-rattling would prove hollow: NATO has insufficient forces in the region to challenge Russian control and economic sanctions are not likely to work. Paranoia about Western threats to its security incline Russians to endure great costs to assert the “sphere of privileged interest” Vladimir Putin claims regarding former Soviet Republics now outside the Russian Federation.
Near term, Russia holds the cards. It supplies Europe with about 30% of its natural gas, or 8% of its energy overall. While that gas can be replaced, Europe can’t change course overnight.
Europe has substantial shale deposits that France, Germany and several others have chosen not to develop.… Seguir leyendo »