Ray Takeyh (Continuación)

MundoOriente Próximo,

Attention has returned to the potential nuclear threat building in Iran. It has long been assumed that the regime seeks the bomb for its deterrent power or as a means of projecting influence in a politically volatile region. As important as these considerations may be, Iranian nuclear calculations are predicated on a distinctly domestic calculus: The Islamic Republic perceives it can reclaim its international standing better with the bomb than without one. Instead of conceding to intrusive U.N. resolutions or amending their behavior on issues of terrorism and regional subversion, Iran’s rulers sense that once they obtain the bomb, they can return to the international fold on their own terms.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

As the United States prepares to withdraw its forces from Iraq by year’s end, a chorus of influential voices is insisting that the beneficiary of such a move is Iran. That is, a beleaguered Shiite theocracy overwhelmed by low-simmering opposition at home and growing isolation abroad is said to emerge as the local hegemon. Such views discount how Iran’s contentious vision for the future of Iraq and its divisive tactics have alienated Iraqis across the sectarian spectrum. Iran may have been able to project its influence in an Iraq beset by civil war, but Tehran increasingly is on the margins as Iraq reconstitutes its national institutions.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Iran’s response to Washington’s accusations that Tehran was involved in a bizarre assassination plot on U.S. soil discloses more about the Islamic Republic than its maladroit penchant toward violence. The reaction of Iran’s opposition as well as its establishment figures suggests a more tenuous relationship between the Islamist regime and Iranian nationalism than generally thought.

It has long been widely assumed that many Iranians, faced with foreign condemnation and escalating pressure, would rally around the flag. Yet they have not. The rupture between the regime and its people seems so fundamental that not even impudent accusations from abroad can be turned to the leadership’s advantage.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrives at the United Nations this week for what promises, once again, to be a belligerent address. Media speculation is sure to focus on his diminishing political fortunes — underscored by tensions with the judiciary over the fate of the two American hikers held since July 2009 — the shifting balances of power within the theocratic state and, as always, Iranian nuclear ambitions. Missing from this narrative is a key point: The Islamic Republic has entered its post-authoritarian stage.

To be clear, the clerical regime in Tehran is not embracing democratic principles, nor has it softened the forced repression central to its rule.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

For years it was assumed that economic sanctions and diplomacy would produce a pliable negotiating partner in Iran. But Iran’s truculence has effectively undermined the once-popular notion, while a degree of confusion and consternation has gripped the international community. The often-unstated hope is that denial of critical technologies and sabotage can slow the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program until, somehow, an alternative strategy, or an agreement, emerges. The thinking has been that time is on our side and that Iran’s weak scientific foundation can be further derailed through such pressure. Contrary to such presumptions, however, Iran’s scientific infrastructure has grown in sophistication and capability in the past two decades.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is being sidelined by religious fundamentalists, and it’s bad news for American officials seeking to halt Iran’s nuclear program.

The same Iranian leader who dabbled in Holocaust denial and messianic fantasies was, paradoxically, also the theocracy’s most ardent advocate of direct nuclear negotiations with Washington. As Mr. Ahmadinejad falls out of favor with Iran’s hard-line religious leaders, the prospect of a nuclear deal between Tehran and Washington is diminishing.

Once the darling of clerical conservatives, who only two years ago rigged the system to ensure his re-election, Mr. Ahmadinejad is now clinging to his post amid furious recriminations from his erstwhile allies.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaMundoOriente Próximo

Even as Washington struggles to come to terms with the Arab Spring, the Middle East is imperceptibly moving to a post-American era. Both allies and adversaries in the region are growing largely indifferent to America’s prohibitions. And as the Middle East’s shifts become more pronounced, it will become ever more difficult for the United States to pursue traditional security concerns such as disarming Iran or reinvigorating the Arab-Israeli peace process.

Let’s take a tour of the region:

On the surface, there is nothing particularly novel about Iranian or Syrian hostility to the United States. The theocratic Iranian state has long abjured America’s entreaties and seems determined to obtain a bomb at all cost.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

Contrary to headlines and official pronouncements, the most important event in the Middle East last week was neither the U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing the use of force against Libya nor the commencement of the air strikes. Despite being relegated to the background, the plebiscite in Egypt establishing the basis for genuine democratic order; the stalled attempt to usher in a constitutional rule in Bahrain; and the ongoing turmoil in Yemen remain the more critical regional developments.

It is the events in the heart of the Arab world and not the disposition of Muammar el-Qaddafi’s distant penal colony that will determine the future of the Middle East for generations to come.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

As Iran's streets erupt with pro-democracy demonstrations, it is all too obvious that the only option the United States has in altering the Islamic Republic's behavior is to support the Green Movement.

The clerical oligarchs have tried hard to prevent the contagion of democracy from afflicting their nation. Despite their maladroit attempt to establish a moral continuity between Iran's 1979 revolution and the recent uprising in Egypt, and their threats of violence and retribution toward those who protest, the mullahs have failed to reclaim their citizens.

It is too facile to suggest that the wave of protests rocking the Middle East was born in Iran, but it is not too simplistic to stress that Iran will not be left behind in the march for freedom.…  Seguir leyendo »

ReflexionesDemocraciaMundoOriente Próximo

Beyond their immediate impact on the reigning autocracies in Tunisia and Egypt, the protests engulfing the Middle East have challenged a central premise of many Arab regimes, namely that in exchange for political passivity the leaders would provide stability and economic opportunities. The states never really kept their side of the bargain, and the Middle East increasingly came to resemble the Soviet Union of the 1970s, a corrupt, stagnant bureaucratic state.

It is obviously too early to know what will arise from the upheavals in the Middle East, but a new order would offer the United States both challenges and opportunities.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

The Islamic Republic today is garnering attention primarily for its nuclear defiance. However, beneath the glare of inconclusive summits and boisterous claims of economic empowerment, a critical question remains: Just how stable is Iran’s clerical regime?

For much of the Washington establishment, the opposition Green movement is a faded memory, a protest wave against electoral fraud that was suppressed by the Islamist regime to the point of exhaustion if not extinction. Such sentiments fail to engage with a more fundamental question, namely how to assess the viability of an opposition movement in a country whose politics have proven so evasive.

The Islamic Republic is not a typical authoritarian state but a distinct ideological construct.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

In an all-too familiar ritual, the United States and Iran are once more contemplating their diplomatic dance. The question that has perennially bedeviled Washington and its allies is how to compel the theocratic regime in Tehran to alter its objectionable practices. As a rational and pragmatic democracy, the United States perceives that economic pressure will compel Iran's leaders to yield on strategic priorities in order to relieve financial distress. The Islamic Republic has its vulnerabilities; however, too narrow a focus on its economic deficiencies has obscured its manifest political weaknesses. An insistence on human rights and the empowerment of the Green Movement can pave the way for Iran's transition to a more tolerant society and provide the West an indispensable lever for tempering the mullahs' nuclear ambitions.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

In an autumn ritual, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad once more arrives in New York this week. The Iranian president's usual media tours and bombastic speeches are likely to be sprinkled with hints of moderation on Iran's contested nuclear program. On his sixth trip to the United Nations, Ahmadinejad is likely to find an international community more confident that its forceful economic sanctions have finally made Tehran appreciate the cost of its belligerence. A closer look, however, reveals that the calculations of Iran's principal protagonists -- Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei -- are largely unaffected by mounting financial penalties imposed by the West.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

Thursday marks the anniversary of one of the most mythologized events in history, the 1953 coup in Iran that ousted Prime Minister Muhammad Mossadeq. CIA complicity in that event has long provoked apologies from American politicians and denunciations from the theocratic regime. The problem with the prevailing narrative? The CIA's role in Mossadeq's demise was largely inconsequential. The institution most responsible for aborting Iran's democratic interlude was the clerical estate, and the Islamic Republic should not be able to whitewash the clerics' culpability.

The dramatic tale of malevolent Americans plotting a coup against Mossadeq, the famed Operation Ajax, has been breathlessly told so much that it has become a verity.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

In the midst of the recent U.S.-Israeli tumult, a curious conventional wisdom is starting to evolve. A Washington that cajoles Israel on its settlements and resumes the peace process in earnest may finally garner Arab support for dealing with Iran's nuclear menace. Although pressuring Israel to restrain its settlements may be a sensible means of gaining constructive Arab participation in the peace talks, it is unlikely to affect the region's passive approach to Iran. Indeed, should Tehran perceive fissures and divisions in U.S.-Israeli alliance, it is likely to further harden its nuclear stance.

The notion that the incumbent Arab regimes are reluctant to collaborate with the United States on Iran because of the prevailing impasse in the peace process is a misreading of regional realities.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

As Iran relentlessly moves toward acquiring a nuclear weapons capability, calls will grow for the United States to think seriously about how to contain Tehran. A preventive attack will not work, some will argue, and could unleash a wave of terrorism that would further imperil Iraq and Afghanistan. Conversely, containment will be held up as a way to deter Tehran without having to resort to military force.

But this view draws a false distinction between containment and force. A preventive attack might not end Iran's nuclear ambitions. Defense Secretary Robert Gates argues that a successful attack would delay the Iranian program by at most a few years.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

The mayhem that has swept over Iran in the past few days is once more calling into question the Islamic Republic's longevity. Recent events are eerily reminiscent of the revolution that displaced the monarchy in 1979: A fragmented, illegitimate state led by cruel yet indecisive men is suddenly confronting an opposition movement that it cannot fully apprehend. It is premature to proclaim the immediate demise of the theocratic regime. Iran may well be entering a prolonged period of chaos and violence. In the aftermath of recent disturbances, however, it is obvious that the lifespan of the Islamic Republic has been considerably shortened.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

As the Obama administration grapples with the conundrum of Iran, it must balance its proliferation concerns with its moral responsibilities. Iran's post-election tremors have hardly subsided; in fact, the regime is systematically eviscerating its democratic opposition. Amid their merciless efforts to consolidate power, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his allies see discussion of the nuclear program as a means to silence the criticism that their domestic behavior merits. In the coming months, Iran will no doubt seek to prolong negotiations by accepting and then rejecting agreed-upon compacts and offering countless counterproposals. The United States and its allies must decide how to approach an Iranian diplomatic stratagem born out of cynical desire to clamp down on peaceful dissent with relative impunity.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

After an eight-year struggle over whether to engage Iran, the United States may finally be on the verge of launching a direct dialogue with its perennial Middle Eastern adversary. Washington has a long list of grievances to discuss, from sponsoring terrorism to the nuclear issue. The success of any talks will hinge on a critical unknown: What does Iran want? Today, an ascendant Iran views negotiations with the United States as a means of consolidating its gains and achieving American recognition of its regional status.

As part of its negotiating strategy, Iran will insist on comprehensive talks. Tehran will want to cover not just its contested nuclear program but also developments in Iraq, the conflicts of the Levant and a prospective Persian Gulf security system.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

As President Bush addressed the Israeli parliament last week, denouncing negotiations with recalcitrant regimes as the "false comfort of appeasement," his diplomats, in conjunction with their European counterparts, offered Iran another incentive package to stop enriching uranium. Even though they are making another effort to disarm Iran through mediation, the administration's approach is hopelessly defective. Beyond insisting on onerous conditions that are unlikely to be met by any Iranian government, the United States and its allies still hope that Tehran will trade its enrichment rights for inducements. If Washington is going to mitigate the Iranian nuclear danger, it must discard the formula of exchanging commercial contracts for nuclear rights and seek more imaginative solutions.…  Seguir leyendo »