Robert E. Kelly

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U.S. President Joe Biden, left, and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol depart following a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 26. Win McNamee/Getty Images

MundoAsia, ,

On April 26, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to a “Washington Declaration”. The declaration reconfirms South Korea’s participation in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a nonnuclear weapons state, following a spike of discussion in South Korea (formally called the Republic of Korea, or ROK) about going nuclear. This declaration ends, for the moment, any ROK effort to push further.

In exchange, the United States pledged to consult South Korea more closely over nuclear contingencies, including through a new “Nuclear Consultative Group”. It is unclear just how much ‘nuclear sharing’—regarding planning, deployment, or command decisions—this group will permit.…  Seguir leyendo »

A woman watches a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of a North Korean missile at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 20. Jung Yeon-Je/AFP via Getty Images

MundoAsia, ,

A February poll found that 71 percent of South Koreans wanted their country to have nuclear weapons. Another in May found 70.2 percent supported indigenous nuclearization, with 63.6 percent in support even if that violated the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The drivers, unsurprisingly, are North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and China’s growing belligerence. These factors impact the Japanese nuclearization debate too, though interest there is noticeably lower. The United States has long opposed South Korean/Japanese counter-nuclearization. But in the light of the Ukraine war, Washington should not hegemonically dictate the outcome of its allies’ WMD debates.

NATO anxiety over possible Russian WMDs in the Ukraine war illustrates potential limits on U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

A man walks past a television news screen showing North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (R) and US President Donald Trump (L) at a railway station in Seoul on May 16, 2018. - North Korea threatened on May 16, to cancel the forthcoming summit between leader Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump if Washington seeks to push Pyongyang into unilaterally giving up its nuclear arsenal. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP) (Photo credit should read JUNG YEON-JE/AFP/Getty Images)

MundoAméricaMundoAsia,

The last few weeks in North Korea diplomacy have been tumultuous but curiously pointless, in our modern “Trumpian disruption” way. US President Donald Trump has for months flouted established patterns of engagement with North Korea, and he clearly relishes doing so. Cable TV is filled with pro-Trump pundits praising his marginalization of “so-called experts” on the North. The analyst community is apparently to be swept aside before Trump’s bold moves and wheeler-and-dealer bravado, which will bring North Korean supremo Kim Jong-un to the table.

But it is not at all clear that this turmoil has resulted in anything other than chaos, setting off a daily rollercoaster of changes, such as the South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s sudden suggestion that he, too, might participate in the summit.…  Seguir leyendo »

A supporter takes pictures between pictures of the South Korean President-elect Moon Jae-In, as Moon speaks to his supporters after he was declared the winner of the election South Korea, May 10, 2017. Credit Jeon Heon-Kyun/European Pressphoto Agency

MundoAsia,

South Koreans elected Moon Jae-in as their new president on Tuesday against a backdrop of heightened United States-North Korean tensions. Yet North Korea did not dominate the campaign. South Korean voters were focused on the economy, corruption and other domestic issues like air quality. Before the voting, only 23 percent of voters said that international security was the most important issue to them.

Mr. Moon, a center-left human rights lawyer who will take office as soon as this week following the ouster of former President Park Geun-hye in a corruption scandal, is a dove inclined to start negotiations with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un.…  Seguir leyendo »