Stephen M. Walt

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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stands during a press conference with Ukrainian President in Kiev on July 10, 2017. via Getty Images) SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP

InternacionalOTAN

As the tides of battle have shifted against Ukraine, amid doubts about whether the U.S. Congress will approve a new round of aid, influential experts such as former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder are repeating their earlier calls to bring Ukraine into NATO sooner rather than later. This step is marketed both as a way to convince Russia that its military campaign cannot keep Ukraine out of the alliance and as needing to provide adequate security for Ukraine when the war finally ends.

Reasonable people can and will disagree about the wisdom of this recommendation, because the contending positions rest on predictions about an uncertain future.…  Seguir leyendo »

A view of a Puma fighting vehicle's cannon at a production line as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius attend the groundbreaking ceremony for a new munitions factory of German defence contractor Rheinmetall on February 12, 2024 in Unterluess, Germany. Pool/Getty Images

EuropaUnión EuropeaDefensa y Seguridad

Former U.S. President Donald Trump set off alarm bells in Europe when he told a campaign rally that he would encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to any countries he judged to be delinquent on their defense obligations. European countries were already fretting about the possibility of a second Trump term, and these latest remarks sent these concerns into high orbit. European Commission President Ursula Van der Leyen told the Financial Times a few days later that Europe was facing a world “that has got rougher” and that “we have to spend more, we have to spend better, and we have to spend European”.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli troops leave the Gaza Strip as seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border in southern Israel on Jan. 8. Amir Levy/Getty Images

MundoOriente Próximo

If you’ve studied the history of the modern Middle East and you follow the news from that region on a regular basis, you probably have a well-formed view about why the long conflict between Israeli Jews and Palestinians has never been resolved. In that case, this column is not for you.

If you’re not very familiar with that history, however, and you tend to pay attention to the issue only when something awful is happening—like right now—you may be asking yourself: “What’s the problem here? Why haven’t Israelis and Palestinians been able to settle their differences and get on with it?…  Seguir leyendo »

Fans hold up a sign resembling a flag during the vigil to celebrate what would have been musician John Lennon's 61st birthday October 9, 2001 outside Capitol Records in Hollywood, CA. Jason Kirk/Getty Images

ReflexionesPensamiento, Cultura y Ciencia

It’s the holiday season in much of the world, when thoughts typically turn to visions of a better world. Hymns praising peace will be sung in churches, pious sentiments will ring out from pulpits, and religious and secular leaders alike will mark the new year with expressions of hope for the future. Such sentiments will sound hollow, however, if we reflect on the brutal carnage in Gaza, the relentless destruction in Ukraine, the senseless civil war in Sudan, and all the other bloodlettings that are underway around the world. Not to mention the vast resources that countries continue to spend finding more and better ways to kill other human beings.…  Seguir leyendo »

U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping arrive for a meeting in Woodside, California on November 15, 2023. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images

ReflexionesPensamiento, Cultura y Ciencia

It’s Thanksgiving week here in the United States, and the timing couldn’t be worse. Given the events of the past year—and especially the past seven weeks—it’s easier to find reasons to be angry or anxious than to give thanks. The war in Ukraine continues unabated, and the prospects for a Ukrainian victory are fading. Even the Wall Street Journal seems chastened by recent developments there. The Middle East has erupted yet again, and thousands of innocent civilians have lost their lives. Armenians are fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh, Sudan is trapped in a brutal civil war, and millions of people have been displaced by violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.…  Seguir leyendo »

Supporters of Palestine gather at Harvard University to show their support for Palestinians in Gaza at a rally in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on October 14, 2023. JOSEPH PREZIOSO/AFP via Getty Images

ReflexionesPensamiento, Cultura y Ciencia

The terrorist attack on Israel and resulting war between Israel and Hamas has roiled campuses across the United States. University presidents at Penn, Stanford, Harvard, and elsewhere have come under fire for not saying enough about the conflict, not saying it soon enough, saying too much, or saying the wrong thing. Longtime donors have severed ties, students have had job offers canceled for expressing controversial views, wealthy hedge fund moguls have sought to blacklist students for the positions they have taken, and assorted critics have seen these events as evidence that elite institutions are either indoctrinating students in dangerous ways or failing to instill in them proper ethical values.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli soldiers work on a tank at the Israel-Gaza border on Oct. 9. Ilia Yefimovich/Picture Alliance via Getty Images

MundoOriente Próximo

Another bloodletting is underway between Israel and Hamas. Hamas started the latest round by launching a well-coordinated missile and ground attack on Israel, including the kidnapping of some number of Israeli soldiers and civilians and the temporary seizure of several border communities. To say Israel was caught off guard is an understatement, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that Israel is now “at war”, and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are retaliating, just as they have done on previous occasions.

Predictably, each side blames the other. Israel and its supporters portray Hamas as nothing but a brutal gang of Iranian-backed terrorists who have deliberately attacked civilians in particularly disturbing ways.…  Seguir leyendo »

Flags of Saudi Arabia and Israel stand together in a kitchen staging area as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken holds meetings at the State Department in Washington, DC, October 14, 2021

MundoOriente Próximo,

The New York Times reports that the Biden administration is making a “long-shot bid” to get Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations. Among other things, this step requires overcoming Saudi concerns about Israel’s continued maltreatment of its Palestinian subjects and getting Israel to accept Saudi Arabia’s desire for an advanced civilian nuclear program. You’d think Biden and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken have enough on their hands these days—the war in Ukraine is not going that well, reestablishing constructive relations with China is a challenging task, and they’re apparently trying to reach some sort of informal bargain over Iran’s nuclear program too—but nobody ever accused U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

Italian soldiers in Bulgaria, December 2022. Stoyan Nenov / Reuters / Foreign Affairs illustration

InternacionalOrden Mundial

NATO was created to prevent a major war in Europe, a task it accomplished well for many decades. Apart from the brief Kosovo war in 1999, its members never had to fight together or coordinate a joint response to aggression—until a year ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine. NATO’s response thus offers fresh, real-world evidence about how contemporary alliances work in practice.

The recent behavior of Russia and the West confirms that states form alliances not to balance against power but to balance against threats. The way NATO has done so has also revealed much about both the alliance’s virtues and its enduring pathologies.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Peshmerga fighter flashes the sign for victory on top of an armoured vehicle on the front line of fighting with Islamic State (IS) militants 20 kilometers east of Mosul, on August 18, 2014. AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP via Getty Images

InternacionalOrden Mundial

It’s the holiday season, that brief period each year when we are encouraged to think about peace. Warring armies sometimes declare cease-fires at this time, and around the world different communities of faith are told that pursuing and preserving peace is a sacred duty. If we are fortunate, most of us will spend some part of the next few days enjoying the company of friends and family and trying to put humanity’s crueler instincts to the side, at least for the moment.

Let’s be honest: 2022 was not a good year for peace. In addition to a brutal and senseless war in Ukraine—a war that shows no signs of ending and could still get much worse—violent conflicts are still underway in Yemen, Myanmar, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Syria, and many other places.…  Seguir leyendo »

Lightning strikes as a column of ash surrounds the crater of Taal Volcano as it erupts on Jan. 12, 2020, as seen from Tagaytay city, Cavite province, Philippines. Ezra Acayan/Getty Images

Internacional

Regular readers of this column know that I’m not inclined to be alarmist. Although there are times when I worry about the costs and risks of certain foreign-policy decisions, I tend to push back on the tendency for foreign-policy experts to inflate threats and assume the worst—but not always. Sometimes, the wolf really is at the door, and it’s time to start worrying.

What’s troubling me today is the gnawing fear that we are living through a series of disruptions that are overwhelming our collective ability to respond. World politics is never completely static, of course, but we haven’t seen as serious a sequence of shocks in a long time.…  Seguir leyendo »

A soldier of the Polish Army sits in a tank as a NATO flag flies behind during the NATO Noble Jump military exercises of the VJTF forces on June 18, 2015 in Zagan, Poland. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

InternacionalOTAN

In a world of constant change, the endurance of the trans-Atlantic partnership stands out. NATO is older than I am, and I’m no youngster. It has been around even longer than Queen Elizabeth II reigned in Britain. Its original rationale—to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”—is less relevant than it used to be (Russia’s war in Ukraine notwithstanding), yet it still commands reflexive reverence on both sides of the Atlantic. If you’re an aspiring policy wonk hoping to make your mark in Washington, Berlin, Paris, London, etc., learning to praise NATO’s enduring virtues is still the smart career move.…  Seguir leyendo »

How to Build a Better Order

InternacionalOrden Mundial

The global order is deteriorating before our eyes. The relative decline of U.S. power and the concomitant rise of China have eroded the partially liberal, rules-based system once dominated by the United States and its allies. Repeated financial crises, rising inequality, renewed protectionism, the COVID-19 pandemic, and growing reliance on economic sanctions have brought the post-Cold War era of hyperglobalization to an end. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have revitalized NATO, but it has also deepened the divide between East and West and North and South. Meanwhile, shifting domestic priorities in many countries and increasingly competitive geopolitics have halted the drive for greater economic integration and blocked collective efforts to address looming global dangers.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting during the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images

ReflexionesPensamiento, Cultura y Ciencia

If a head of state or foreign minister asked for my advice—don’t be alarmed; that’s not likely to happen—I might start by saying: “Respect the power of nationalism”. Why? Because as I look back over much of the past century and consider what’s happening today, the failure to appreciate this phenomenon seems to have led numerous leaders (and their countries) into costly disasters. I’ve made this point before—in 2019, 2011, and 2021—but recent events suggest a refresher course is in order.

What is nationalism? The answer has two parts. First, it starts by recognizing that the world is made up of social groups that share important cultural traits (a common language, history, ancestry, geographic origins, etc.),…  Seguir leyendo »

Syrian Army soldiers in Hama, Syria, on Sunday. Credit Alexander Kots/Komsomolskaya Pravda, via Associated Press

MundoAméricaEuropaMundoOriente Próximo, , ,

For four years, American policy toward Syria has been built on a wish and a prayer: a wish that President Bashar al-Assad would leave and a prayer that the “moderate” Syrian opposition would be more than it is. Now Russia has stepped up its game, and the response from the American government and many commentators seems to be to wish harder and pray more, while condemning Russia for intruding where it supposedly doesn’t belong.

As much as many Americans and Europeans may abhor what President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia did in Crimea and Ukraine, Moscow’s intervention in Syria may offer the first glimmer of hope for ending the quagmire there.…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalTerrorismo Internacional

Le moment est venu d’étudier une éventualité troublante: que devrions-nous faire si l’Etat islamique gagnait? Par «gagner», je ne veux pas dire se répandre comme une traînée de poudre dans tout le Moyen-Orient et fonder un califat de Bagdad à Rabat et au-delà. Certes, c’est bien là le projet des chefs de l’EI, mais les ambitions révolutionnaires ne sont pas la réalité et cette éventualité-là est farfelue. Non, une victoire de l’EI signifierait ceci: le groupe conserverait le pouvoir dans les régions qu’il contrôle actuellement et parviendrait à déjouer les efforts extérieurs visant à l’«affaiblir et le détruire». Ainsi la question que je pose est la suivante: que fait-on si l’Etat islamique devient un vrai Etat et qu’il démontre une vraie capacité à conserver le pouvoir?…  Seguir leyendo »