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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspecting a missile facility, May 2024. KCNA / Reuters

MundoAsia

U.S. President Joe Biden has plenty of foreign policy crises on his hands. But unfortunately for him, as the United States heads into November’s elections there’s a high chance of yet another emergency: renewed provocations from North Korea. Pyongyang has a history of acting out during U.S. elections. Research by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for example, found that North Korea stages more than four times as many weapons tests in U.S. election years than in other years.

The situation on the Korean Peninsula is already growing fraught. On January 10, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared South Korea to be an enemy state, ending all talk of peaceful reunification and setting the stage for more hostilities.…  Seguir leyendo »

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attending a meeting in Pyongyang, North Korea, December 2023. KCNA / Reuters

MundoAsia

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is once again raising tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Every week seems to bring fresh news of missile tests, as Pyongyang’s range of weapons of mass destruction expands in quality and quantity. At the same time, Kim is issuing new threats of war with South Korea. Denying the kinship between the two countries, he now denounces his neighbor as an enemy state.

There is no doubt that Pyongyang is ramping up its rhetoric and its military provocations. The question, however, is whether Kim is doing this to safeguard his regime and coerce Seoul or if he is planning an impending offensive against South Korea and the United States.…  Seguir leyendo »

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a Cabinet meeting in Seoul on Tuesday. (Im Hun-jung/Yonhap/AP)

MundoAsia,

Politics offers few profiles in courage — which is why John F. Kennedy could write a whole book on some notable exceptions. On Monday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol moved to add a new chapter by taking a brave step toward resolving a long-festering, historical dispute with Japan.

During World War II, in the last phase of a brutal colonial regime that began in 1910, Japanese forces conscripted nearly 750,000 Korean men as forced laborers and 200,000 women as “comfort women” (i.e., sex slaves) to serve Japanese soldiers. Though Japan and South Korea resumed diplomatic ties in 1965, the relationship has been a tense one — a cold peace more akin to the Israeli-Egyptian relationship after Camp David than the close German-French cooperation since 1945.…  Seguir leyendo »

Watching a North Korean missile launch, Seoul, South Korea, March 2020. Heo Ran / Reuters

MundoAsia,

Among the more overlooked geopolitical developments in 2022 was North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. During the year, it logged nearly 100 missile tests, a record for the country; several of them involved weapons of extraordinary range and potency. In November, the regime launched a Hwasong-17, an intercontinental ballistic missile that can carry multiple warheads and is capable of reaching the United States. A month later, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un personally oversaw the test of a powerful solid-fuel rocket engine—a crucial new capability for the country because solid-fuel rockets can be fired more quickly than liquid-fuel ones and are harder to detect and preempt.…  Seguir leyendo »

A TV broadcast showing North Korea firing projectiles, Seoul, October 2019 Heo Ran / Reuters

MundoAsia,

Over the past few months, many Western analysts have been deeply concerned about the possibility that Russian President Vladimir Putin might deploy a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. But Putin is not the only autocrat who could resort to weapons of mass destruction. Look no further than North Korea. In the past year, the country’s leader, Kim Jong Un, has tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile, a train-mounted ballistic missile, a new surface-to-air defense missile system, a long-range strategic cruise missile, and multiple hypersonic missiles. And there are indications that North Korea is preparing its seventh nuclear test, possibly to showcase a more compact, next-generation tactical nuclear weapon.…  Seguir leyendo »

Kim Jong Un in North Korea, March 2022 KCNA via Reuters

MundoAsia,

With the entire world focused on Ukraine, the coming weeks and months will present the perfect opportunity for rogue states to make trouble, knowing that the United States and other powers are distracted. Chief among such potential opportunists is North Korea, which could trigger the sleeper crisis of 2022. The Biden administration must be ready for a flare-up on the Korean Peninsula even as Russian President Vladimir Putin causes bloodshed and threatens nuclear war in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine will only redouble North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s determination to expand his nuclear arsenal. Kim knows that under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons it inherited from the Soviet Union, and he no doubt figures that if Ukraine were still a nuclear power, Russia would not have dared to attack.…  Seguir leyendo »

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang on April 11. (AP) (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)

MundoAsia

There are unconfirmed media reports that the North Korean strongman Kim Jong Un may be incapacitated or even dead following a medical emergency, possibly heart surgery. Both the South Korean and U.S. governments have said they do not believe anything is amiss, but Kim’s failure to appear in public since April 11 has fueled the speculation.

No one knows what happens if Kim dies — and that is precisely the problem. Kim’s death would leave North Korea dealing with an unplanned succession for the first time in its 72-year history. Kim Jong Il had been preparing to succeed his father Kim Il Sung for two decades when he took over in 1994, while Kim Jong Un had a few years to prepare before his father Kim Jong Il’s death in 2011.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia

North Korea is a threat that keeps on threatening. Satellite imagery recently revealed increased activity at the Punggye-ri nuclear site. The government in Pyongyang appears to have completed preliminary steps for a fourth nuclear test. Its ballistic missile program continues to advance. And the man with his finger on the button is the 31-year-old Kim Jong-un, who seems even more erratic than his notorious predecessors.

So far, the United States, South Korea, Japan and China — the main countries with a stake in stability on the Korean Peninsula — have responded by adopting a policy of soft containment. Even as they have tried to curb Pyongyang’s excesses, they have allowed the regime to stay in place: They fear that its demise would be too destabilizing and that the peninsula’s reunification would mean crippling economic and social costs for South Korea.…  Seguir leyendo »