Tatiana Stanovaya

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Putin’s Age of Chaos

After Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian elites acted as if the war had not really changed anything on the home front. Even as the campaign foundered and the West tightened sanctions on the Russian economy, those with power in Moscow seemed to carry on as usual. Since last autumn, however, things have been getting a little more complicated. A surprisingly successful Ukrainian counterattack in the region of Kharkiv in September 2022 exposed the vulnerability of Russian military positions. Irked, the Kremlin launched a military mobilization that caused tremendous social anxiety, although only for a short period.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin visiting a manufacturing plant in Tula, Russia, April 2023. Ramil Sitdikov / Sputnik / Reuters

In just under a year, on March 17, Russians will head to the polls for the 2024 presidential election. Given the country’s current social and political conditions, few people doubt that President Vladimir Putin will easily receive a sixth term. According to some Russian media outlets, Putin’s team plans on making sure the president gets more than the record-breaking 77 percent of the vote he won in 2018.In theory, this target should be easy to meet. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is broadly supported at home, and polling from the independent Levada Center shows that Putin’s approval rating is at a near-record high.…  Seguir leyendo »

Even in a war that has gone poorly for Russia, the Russian Defense Ministry’s November 9 announcement of a full retreat from the city of Kherson marked a special kind of disaster. Kherson was the first major Ukrainian city seized by Moscow after the invasion, and it was one of the four regions that Russia had illegally annexed just five weeks earlier, following sham referendums. In October, the city’s occupying authorities had plastered its streets with billboards declaring that Russia would be there “forever”, and Moscow had told Russian citizens that the city’s occupation was one of the war’s major successes.…  Seguir leyendo »

On September 30, following a series of sham referendums held in occupied territory in Ukraine, the Russian government declared that four Ukrainian regions were now officially part of Russia. The annexation came amid a “partial” Russian mobilization that is in fact rapidly becoming a large-scale one and that has left many Russians aghast and anxious. With these moves, the war in Ukraine has entered a new stage in which the stakes have risen drastically.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is explicitly demonstrating that he is going to do whatever it takes to win, even at the risk of undermining his own regime.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a summit on the Syrian civil war in Istanbul on Oct. 27, 2018. OZAN KOSE/AFP via Getty Images

Ukraine’s successful counterattack means that for the first time ever in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 22 years in power, he has to deal with elites who disagree with him—on strategic decisions over Russia’s war in Ukraine and how the war may end. Having launched the war not just without any internal discussions, but without even informing key players, Putin has taken huge risks politically. If the war were going well, that gamble would have paid off, but today, as Ukraine is counterattacking and Russia is retreating, questions about Putin’s decisions are mounting. There are fears that Russia may lose outright. If the president fails to convince the elites that he remains a strong leader with a clear understanding of where he is taking the country, uncertainty may become a significant political risk to Putin’s regime.…  Seguir leyendo »

Putin cree que va ganando

Todo va conforme al plan.

Esa es la línea argumental del presidente de Rusia, Vladimir Putin. La guerra en Ucrania, que está en su quinto mes y no se ve un final cercano, puede ser extenuante. Pero los altos funcionarios del Kremlin siguen repitiendo que Rusia, que está ganando terreno en el este de Ucrania, va a tener éxito en todos sus objetivos.

Eso puede resultar difícil de creer. Después de todo, Rusia tuvo que retirarse de Kiev, enfrentó varios retrocesos militares, afronta sanciones a una escala sin precedentes y ha sido objeto de un coro de condenas a nivel internacional.…  Seguir leyendo »

Putin Thinks He’s Winning

Everything is going according to plan.

That’s the line from President Vladimir Putin. The war in Ukraine, in its fifth month and with no end in sight, may be grueling. But senior Kremlin officials keep repeating that Russia, gaining the upper hand in Ukraine’s east, will achieve all its goals.

That might seem hard to believe. After all, Russia has been forced to retreat from Kyiv, experienced several military reversals, faced sanctions on an unprecedented scale and been subjected to a chorus of international condemnation. To call such a litany of difficulties and outright failures a success may be to court the charge of propaganda, hypocrisy or even self-delusion.…  Seguir leyendo »

Then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (right) speaks to Chinese President Xi Jinping as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese First Lady Akie Abe look on at the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019. Photo by Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images

One of the reasons it’s so difficult to understand Russian intentions—and what is at stake in the Ukraine war—is the significant divergence between how external observers see events and how they are viewed from the Kremlin. Things that appear obvious to some, such as Russia’s incapacity to achieve a military victory, are perceived completely differently in Moscow. The fact is that most of today’s discussions over how to help Ukraine win on the battlefield, coerce Kyiv into concessions, or allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to save face have little in common with reality.

Here I will debunk five common assumptions about how Putin sees this war.…  Seguir leyendo »