Why has the Syrian civil war lasted so long?
The war in Syria may be drawing nearer to a close. Syrian regime forces have advanced through rebel territory, most recently taking Quneitra province in the southwest. President Bashar al-Assad’s regime appears, according to much commentary, to be heading toward victory. The war is seven years old. Hundreds of thousands are dead, millions displaced. How has this bloody war lasted so long? How has Assad survived several moments, especially early on, in which his rule appeared doomed? And what does this mean for other civil conflicts?
My research, in a recent paper, suggests a grim answer. One key to the war’s length and Assad’s survival is that the regime has long pursued a sectarian strategy, putting key posts in the hands of certain members of a small religious minority.… Seguir leyendo »