The divorce negotiations may go to the wire.
The negotiations over the British withdrawal from the European Union were supposed to be over by now. But the October European summit came and went without a deal. And a much-hyped challenge to Prime Minister Theresa May’s leadership fizzled out Wednesday, in part thanks to the reaction to the gruesome off-the-record language from critics in her party.
The Brexit process remains a multilevel negotiation, where actors send out signals and seek to frame the discussions to rally support, obfuscate and intimidate. With just over 150 days to go until Britain is due to leave the European Union, here are five things to watch:
1.… Seguir leyendo »
Although it still feels like hurricane season in European party politics, some parties are clearly able to survive the storm. But winning the vote is just part of the battle.
Here’s what Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Slovenia tell us about anti-migration feelings, personality politics and other factors at play in European elections this year.
1) Anti-migration appeals work — to some extent
As expected, the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) won with 25 percent of the vote. Taking a cue from Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, SDS employed anti-migration rhetoric to great effect. Janez Jansa, the SDS leader for the past quarter-century, portrayed his party as the best defender of Slovenia from migrants and protector of the Slovenian way of life.… Seguir leyendo »
Czech party politics used to be fairly simple. But since 2010, its elections have repeatedly delivered instability and fragmentation. And this past Sunday’s voting shows 2017 is no exception.
As expected, Andrej Babiš’s party ANO won the Czech elections with nearly 30 percent of the vote. His victory has dominated the headlines in the United States and Europe, but the election also was striking for the collapse of the Social Democrats (ČSSD), the rise of new political forces and a fragmented Parliament with nine parties.
Why did the Social Democrats do so badly?
ČSSD’s share of the vote slumped to 7.3 percent, its worst performance since the early 1990s.… Seguir leyendo »
The parallels are easy to draw. A rich businessman who has played on anti-establishment and anti-politician appeals looks set to win the Czech elections this week, with voters going to the polls Friday and Saturday. But the real question is not why Andrej Babis, who has inevitably been described as a Trump-like figure, has so much support. It’s why he has managed to increase his support since the 2013 elections.
In 2013, Babis’s party, the Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO), an acronym that spells “yes” in Czech, won 18.65 percent in national parliamentary elections. Its pitch was straight out of the new-party-led-by-a-businessman playbook: Trust me, I’m a successful businessman, and I know how to get things done.… Seguir leyendo »
British Prime Minister Theresa May will submit a letter triggering “Article 50” on Wednesday, kicking off the formal process for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union.
Divorces can be messy — and drawn out. Anger, regret and coldhearted calculations can lead the two sides to an agreement that neither side wanted or expected. There is no precedent or guide for any country to leave the E.U., but these four factors will play a key role in the coming months:
1) The real negotiations begin … well, not quite yet
In the nine months since the June 2016 Brexit referendum, there has been a calm before the storm.… Seguir leyendo »