Timothy Frye

Este archivo solo abarca los artículos del autor incorporados a este sitio a partir del 1 de diciembre de 2006. Para fechas anteriores realice una búsqueda entrecomillando su nombre.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaking at his campaign headquarters, Moscow, March 2024. Maxim Shemetov / Reuters

Europa

In Russia’s presidential election in mid-March, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially won his fifth term with 87 percent of the vote and the highest reported turnout in the country’s post-Soviet history. Indeed, by most measures, Putin remains popular. Opinion surveys just before the election pegged his approval rating above 80 percent. Some voters are likely afraid to tell pollsters otherwise, of course, but for an autocrat, that kind of fear is almost as good as real support. Either way, Russians are generally avoiding open protest. This helps the Kremlin get away with touting Putin’s sweeping election victory as an endorsement of both the president and his signature policy, the war in Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Russian flag flies near a convoy of pro-Russian forces moving from the front line near the eastern Ukrainian city of Starobeshevo in Donetsk region in February 2015. (Vasily Maximov/AFP/Getty Images)

Europa, , ,

Many analysts have worried in recent weeks about a large buildup of Russian military forces along the Ukrainian border. Russian troops have gathered in areas near the ongoing conflict in the Donbas, and some troops relocated to Crimea. Amid border skirmishes, warnings from the Kremlin and escalating rhetoric on Russian state-owned media, what’s going on?

Some experts speculate that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be seeking a confrontation with Ukraine to bolster his position at home. Reports from Russia show personal support for Putin softening, and his unpopular ruling party faces elections in September.

However, the data suggest it may be hard for Putin to use foreign policy to rally support for military intervention.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian police block a protest Saturday against the jailing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Yekaterinburg, Russia. (Anton Basanayev/AP)

Europa

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime has started to rely more on repression as a central tool, culminating in the arrest of the opposition politician Alexei Navalny and Saturday’s crackdown on protesters. It’s not unusual for autocratic regimes to coerce protesters, arrest political opponents and harass potential critics.

However, repression has its downside: It helps keep incumbents in power but may prevent them from addressing the deep-seated problems that drive protests and opposition in the first place. The more they rely on coercion, the more they neglect the problems generating protest — such as declining living standards, corruption and a lack of accountability — and spark further opposition, creating a “repression trap” for the regime.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa

Russia’s constitution, at least before this week’s referendum, would have required Vladimir Putin to step down from the Russian presidency in 2024, at the end of his second consecutive six-year term. Observers had long wondered: Would he stay or would he go?

Voters in Russia answered that question by approving a package of constitutional amendments this week — including changes that grant Putin the right to run for two more six-year presidential terms. Reports of irregularities were widespread. A European Union spokesperson noted concerns including voter coercion and double voting, along with intimidation of observers.

Here’s the backstory

In mid-January, Putin submitted proposals for amendments to the constitution and formed a working group to refine the legislation.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa

In a surprise move, the Russian government headed by Dmitry Medvedev resigned Wednesday. Medvedev had served as prime minister since 2012 and had often been mentioned as a potential successor to President Vladimir Putin should he leave office in 2024, as required by the Russian Constitution.

In Russia’s presidential system, the prime minister is nominated by the president and approved by the parliament. The prime minister heads the government and is largely responsible for implementing and coordinating policy. As there is no vice president, the prime minister is also the legal successor of the president. Putin held the position from 2008 to 2012 after stepping down as president in accordance with the two-term limit specified in the Russian Constitution.…  Seguir leyendo »