Tricia Bacon

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A Taliban flag-raising ceremony in Kabul, March 2022, Ali Khara / Reuters

Since taking power last summer, Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government has been isolated internationally; not a single country has yet recognized it. But in recent weeks, Taliban officials have made a series of increasingly public overtures to a once unlikely prospective partner: India. And the interest has been reciprocated, to some extent. At a regional security summit in Tajikistan in late May, Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval urged Afghanistan’s neighbors to provide counterterrorism aid to the war-torn country. On June 2, a delegation of senior Indian officials traveled to Kabul to meet with Taliban leaders. And on June 23, India reopened its diplomatic mission in Afghanistan.…  Seguir leyendo »

A video image shows the building in Syria before the raid, (Defense Department/AP)

This month, a U.S. Special Forces mission targeted Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, the leader of the Islamic State. Al-Qurayshi reportedly detonated explosives during the raid, killing himself and members of his family.

His death follows previous U.S. raids that killed al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. But what type of leader was al-Qurayshi — and what type of leader might succeed him?

The Islamic State leader was a relative unknown

Our research explains why these questions are critical when trying to gauge the impact on a terrorist group after its leader has died.…  Seguir leyendo »

An undated photo shows al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan. (AP)

Seven years after the death of al-Qaeda’s founding leader, Osama bin Laden, the Sunni jihadist movement stands divided. Al-Qaeda remains a powerful player, primarily because of the strength of its affiliates, those groups that have sworn allegiance to al-Qaeda. But al-Qaeda also faces a major rival: its former affiliate in Iraq, the Islamic State.

Their alliance — formed in 2004 — was troubled from the outset. Al-Qaeda was constantly frustrated with its Iraqi affiliate’s excessive violence, prioritization of Shiites as an enemy, infighting with other Sunni militants in Iraq and refusal to heed al-Qaeda’s counsel. Yet their alliance withstood those problems for years.…  Seguir leyendo »

Students in Nairobi protest an attack by gunmen at the Garissa University College in April 2015. Al-Shabab asserted responsibility for the attack. (Thomas Mukoya/Reuters)

On June 14, the terrorist group al-Shabab — an al-Qaeda affiliate — attacked a pizza restaurant in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, by detonating a car bomb and sending in assailants. More than 30 people were killed. Earlier in June, al-Shabab overran a military base in the semiautonomous area of Puntland, killing dozens. The group recently surpassed Boko Haram as the deadliest terrorist organization in Africa.

But it’s not the violence that’s attracting followers. My recent field research in Kenya and Somalia, the two East African countries where al-Shabab is most active, suggests that al-Shabab is thriving because it’s still offering a comparatively attractive alternative to the Somali government.…  Seguir leyendo »