Yu Jie

The world anxiously awaits the inauguration of Donald Trump on 20 January and nowhere more than in China. Expectations from the Chinese strategic community about the path of US–China relations over the next four years range from tragically fatalistic to extremely optimistic.

At one extreme, some commentators expect bilateral relations to head for a freefall. At the other, pundits argue that Trump the dealmaker could do deals with China on sensitive issues, including Taiwan. Neither outcome is likely.

China’s efforts to manage the former property developer will seek to maintain a precarious balance aimed at saving its faltering economy and reversing the deterioration of relations with the US-led West while also strengthening ties with large parts of the non-Western world.…  Seguir leyendo »

While the rest of the world weighs the impact of a Donald Trump or a Kamala Harris victory in November’s US presidential election, both candidates present serious challenges for China. To be sure, neither seems to want open conflict between the two powers, which could precipitate a nightmarish descent into global chaos. But Chinese decision-makers expect bitter disputes over trade, technology, and Taiwan regardless of who wins.

China is preparing for more turbulence by taking a whole-country approach to its relations with the US. That means moving beyond the realm of foreign affairs and coordinating with economic policymakers, military personnel, and technology leaders, as well as mobilizing resources across the country.…  Seguir leyendo »

While Europe and the United States are dealing with a string of crucial elections, the world’s second largest economy is about to convene a major conclave to decide its economic direction of travel – the third plenum of the 20th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) central committee. Boring and unfashionable as it might sound, China watchers and global investors will closely follow this event: previous third plenums have offered a clear signpost on China’s economic growth strategy for the following decade.

Since 1982 the CCP politburo and its central committee typically convene seven plenums every five years.…  Seguir leyendo »

Precisely how far China will go in supporting Russia has been one of the most important questions of the war in Ukraine.

On 20 February, US secretary of state Antony Blinken warned China may soon provide arms (‘lethal support’) to Moscow. But then, on 24 February – the anniversary of Russia’s invasion – China released a position paper calling for a political settlement to end the conflict, tellingly omitting any mention of its ‘no-limits partnership’ with Russia.

China’s goal was to present itself as a neutral mediator. In fact, Beijing’s ties with Russia remain unchanged, even if this relationship has grown more exasperating for Chinese diplomats over the past year.…  Seguir leyendo »

Since joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China has regularly unveiled a grand new strategic concept every four years or so.

Each has been deeply rooted in the Chinese political system and communicated via ambitious slogans, such as A Harmonious World, or New Types of Great Power Relations. And all have reliably generated both excitement and confusion abroad and within China.

China’s latest grand concept, the Global Development Initiative (GDI), is no exception. When Chinese president Xi Jinping introduced it at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in September 2021, it made hardly any splash in the West, perhaps because China has already signalled its determination to shape international development in the post-COVID era.…  Seguir leyendo »

The 20th Party Congress report is significantly shorter than the 19th, which is a clear indication of Xi’s success in centralizing power. The report acts as a summary of the party’s achievements and its plans – expressed as the lowest common denominator of consensus between competing factions. A shorter political report would seem to represent fewer factions now seeking consensus.

In the 20th Party Congress report, the language on Taiwan has been revised, reflecting the changes in tone and the policies of the CCP senior leadership. In addition to the conventional ‘peaceful reunification’ term, there is also an addition of more hawkish language on Taiwan to ‘not exclude the use of force as a last resort’.…  Seguir leyendo »

With its conceptual ambiguity, 'Indo-Pacific' is the latest geopolitical buzzword between the United States and its allies. Behind its increased use is an overt aim to curb China’s growing economic, political, and military influence between the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Beijing’s foreign policy deliberation is being rigorously tested with this increasing tilt by the West towards the Indo-Pacific. For China, this tilt complicates the already erratic relations between Beijing and Taipei, escalates the sabre-rattling in the South China Sea, and disrupts its flagship Belt and Road Initiative, which the country has invested heavily in.

But the growing geopolitical significance of the region goes well beyond China’s relations with liberal democracies and regional economies.…  Seguir leyendo »

Beijing holds its conservative maxim that, no matter how complicated the international situation has become, China must prioritise the management of its own affairs. Despite the current global crisis, that message still resonated loud and clear from the long-delayed National People Congress (NPC).

The new national security law in Hong Kong caused a blast of explosive responses internationally. But China’s critical domestic priority remains to revive a shuttered economy amid mounting unemployment. Soft power ‘pandemic’ diplomacy and the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) were scarcely mentioned during the NPC.

Instead, Chinese leadership presented a grim assessment of the domestic and international economic landscape, as foreshadowed in previous politburo meetings.…  Seguir leyendo »

Despite the twists and turns of wrestling with President Donald Trump, the Chinese Communist party has entered its summer recess and its senior leaders have gathered at the Beidaihe beach resort, 300 kilometres from Beijing, for the annual summer meeting to determine its domestic priorities for the rest of 2019 and in the lead up to the party’s centenary in 2021.

While the Beidaihe meeting is a secretive affair, it is no less important than other conclaves of the party’s senior leadership. Judging by the last public gathering of the politburo on July 30, 'stabilizing employment, boosting household consumption and mitigating major risks' are likely to dominate the Beidaihe meeting agenda, and the much discussed trade war and Sino-US decoupling has become a secondary concern.…  Seguir leyendo »