Orden Mundial

The latest edition of Crisis Group’s monthly conflict tracker highlights dangers of escalating conflict in DR Congo, Yemen and Bangladesh. CrisisWatch also notes a conflict resolution opportunity in Yemen.

In November, Yemen’s brutal war continued to threaten its people with famine, while talks planned for early December offer a glimmer of hope for reprieve. Boko Haram’s insurgency in north east Nigeria gained intensity, as suspected jihadist groups stepped up attacks in Burkina Faso’s north and east and across the border in south west Niger, and in Mozambique’s far north. In Somalia, Al-Shabaab upped its campaign of violence, while territorial clashes flared between the country’s semi-autonomous Puntland region and Somaliland.…  Seguir leyendo »

‘Internationalists should go beyond the scope of existing institutions to imagine new ones’ Photograph: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty Images

A Nationalist International is under construction. From Viktor Orbán in the north to Jair Bolsonaro in the south, Rodrigo Duterte in the east to Donald Trump in the west, a coalition of nationalist strongmen are cracking down on civil rights, scapegoating minorities and facilitating widespread corruption for their family and friends.

There is growing recognition that – to fight these forces of division – we must forge our own Progressive International movement. In the United States, Bernie Sanders has called to “unite people all over the world” to counter authoritarianism. In the United Kingdom, Jeremy Corbyn has promised to draw on “the best internationalist traditions of the labour movement”.…  Seguir leyendo »

Festival chino en Pakruojis, Lithuania, este sábado. INTS KALNINS REUTERS

Después de que lo fuera el Atlántico en el siglo XX, el Pacífico se ha convertido hoy en el nuevo centro del mundo, el capitalismo universal y los grandes riesgos geopolíticos. Asia alberga a la mitad de la población mundial y genera el 60% de la producción. Pero, al mismo tiempo, se han disparado las tensiones por la soberanía del mar del Sur de China y el programa de proliferación balística y nuclear de Corea del Norte.Por primera vez, la cumbre de los 21 países de la APEC celebrada en Port Moresby (Nueva Guinea) ha terminado sin una declaración común, prueba de hasta qué punto se ha agudizado la rivalidad entre Estados Unidos y China, como se vio en el choque frontal entre Xi Jinping y Mike Pence.…  Seguir leyendo »

El historiador Eric Hobsbawn, ya fallecido, describió el siglo XX como la “era de los extremos”, en la que el socialismo de estado condujo al gulag; el capitalismo liberal condujo a depresiones cíclicas, y el nacionalismo condujo a dos guerras mundiales. Luego predijo que el futuro equivaldría a una prolongación del pasado y del presente, caracterizada por “una política violenta y cambios políticos violentos” y por “la distribución social, no el crecimiento”.

La historia tal vez no se repita, pero frecuentemente rima. La famosa frase de la ex primera ministra británica Margaret Thatcher de que “no hay tal cosa como la sociedad”, sino solamente “hombres y mujeres individuales” en efecto rima con la visión mundial divisiva y el comportamiento interesado de los demagogos populistas de hoy.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli defense missiles intercepting fire from the Gaza Strip on Monday.CreditJack Guez/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

This has been a week of drawing lessons from World War I. Here’s mine: What was commemorated in Paris on Sunday as the centenary of the end of the First World War could equally be remembered as the starting date of the Second. Wars that don’t end decisively — in absolute victory for one side and unequivocal defeat for the other — tend not to end at all.

This idea — that the European “peace” that held from 1918 to 1939 was really just a pause in a single long war that ended only with Germany’s surrender in 1945 — is hardly original to me.…  Seguir leyendo »

Celebrating the end of World War I in London.CreditCreditUniversal History Archive/UIG, via Getty Images

On Nov. 11, 1918, a delegation of German representatives, not entirely sure that they represented their crumbling government, made their way through the forest of Compiègne toward a group of Allied officers. There, inside railroad car 2419D, they signed the armistice that brought World War I to a close.

It was the moment the entire world had longed for ever since lurching into war four years earlier. Both sides promised a quick victory before settling into a ghastly stalemate. Political leaders gave grandiloquent speeches about the purpose of the war. The young men in the trenches grew numb to their bombast.…  Seguir leyendo »

Bombardment

Four years ago, I went to war. Like many of the people whose stories I followed in my daily “live-tweets” on World War I, I had no idea what I was getting myself into. What began as an impulsive decision to commemorate the hundredth anniversary of Austrian Archduke Ferdinand’s death at the hands of a Serbian assassin, in June 1914, snowballed into a blood-soaked odyssey that took me—figuratively and literally—from the rolling hills of northern France, to the desert wastes of Arabia, to the rocky crags of the Italian Alps, to the steel turret of a rebel cruiser moored within range of the czar’s Winter Palace in St.…  Seguir leyendo »

Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan shake hands after signing the INF Treaty in 1987. Photo: Getty Images.

Although the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is a bilateral agreement between the US and Russia, the recent threat from the US to withdraw from the long-standing, highly successful agreement is not an issue that should be decided only between the two countries.

We are all affected by the US–Russia relationship in its highs and its lows. Their security dialogue is a global security discussion. US nuclear weapons systems are part of NATO’s weapons systems and nuclear arms control agreements between the two states affect everyone in the world. Most significantly, any use of nuclear weapons that resulted from a conflict between them would have disastrous impacts for the whole planet.…  Seguir leyendo »

Libya’s Economic Reforms Fall Short

Libya has seen two major confrontations in recent months: a standoff between the east-based Libyan National Army and the west-based internationally-recognised government over the control of revenues from oil installations in the Gulf of Sirte in June-July, and recurrent attacks on Tripoli by militias from outside the capital since August. Both were sparked by conflict actors’ desire for greater control over economic institutions and the perception that a handful of militias and interest groups in the capital have disproportionate access to the country’s wealth. Though in September, the Government of National Accord.

adopted the first economic reform package since the Qadhafi regime fell in 2011, the fight over resources will remain a central feature of the crisis.…  Seguir leyendo »

Illustration by Delcan & Company; Photograph by Dennis Cook, via Associated Press

Over 30 years ago, President Ronald Reagan and I signed in Washington the United States-Soviet Treaty on the elimination of intermediate- and shorter-range missiles. For the first time in history, two classes of nuclear weapons were to be eliminated and destroyed.

This was a first step. It was followed in 1991 by the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which the Soviet Union signed with President George H.W. Bush, our agreement on radical cuts in tactical nuclear arms, and the New Start Treaty, signed by the presidents of Russia and the United States in 2010.

There are still too many nuclear weapons in the world, but the American and Russian arsenals are now a fraction of what they were during the Cold War.…  Seguir leyendo »

Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan signing the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty at the White House in 1987.CreditCreditUniversal History Archive/UIG, via Getty Images

Nuclear weapons are a threat to the world. Any large-scale nuclear exchange would have globally catastrophic consequences. Conscious of this reality, President Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, the leader of the Soviet Union, worked in the 1980s to reduce the number of nuclear weapons, with the ultimate goal of getting rid of them.

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, signed in 1987, was a major step toward this goal, eliminating a large class of nuclear weapons that were viewed as particularly destabilizing. The treaty is still in force, although both the Obama and Trump administrations have said that Russia is in violation.…  Seguir leyendo »

En la última semana de septiembre tuvo lugar uno de los acontecimientos más señalados en el calendario diplomático internacional: el debate anual de la Asamblea General de las Naciones Unidas. Como es habitual, este debate reunió a una amplia nómina de líderes mundiales, aunque en los tiempos que corren el término «líder mundial» tal vez no deba utilizarse con tanta ligereza. Sin ir más lejos, el presidente de la primera potencia global ha dejado bien claro que no alberga ninguna ambición de implicarse en la resolución de nuestros problemas comunes y, desgraciadamente, no es el único que exhibe este tipo de inclinaciones.…  Seguir leyendo »

En el año 1992 Francis Fukuyama publicaba su famoso libro El fin de la Historia y el último hombre. Según Fukuyama, la Humanidad, una vez superado el conflicto entre Estados Unidos y la Unión Soviética, había encontrado el modelo político y social ideal: la democracia liberal y la economía de libre mercado. Este diagnóstico, controvertido ya en su origen, se encuentra hoy bajo asedio. La realidad es que el Orden Liberal Internacional, que es otra forma de referirse a los valores, normas e instituciones que sustentan el modelo democrático, el libre mercado, la porosidad de las fronteras, los derechos humanos y el derecho internacional, se ve cuestionado en estos momentos en muchos lugares del mundo.…  Seguir leyendo »

Tema

Los Estados y las empresas han desarrollado sistemas, principalmente defensivos, frente a los ciberataques recibidos. Pero ahora se plantean realizar acciones ofensivas contra los atacantes (hack-back)1.

Resumen

Las empresas estratégicas y de infraestructuras críticas son el objeto preferente de los ciberataques, con el apoyo implícito o explícito de Estados con geopolíticas agresivas, que utilizan cepas sofisticadas de malware (virus informáticos) para atacar y vulnerar los sistemas tecnológicos de esas empresas, robar información de alto valor (ciberespionaje), destruir sus datos o distorsionar sus procesos críticos. Los Estados y las empresas han desplegado y robustecido capacidades de ciberseguridad y de ciberdefensa, pero no logran impedir ciberataques cada vez más sofisticados y dañinos.…  Seguir leyendo »

Stumbling Toward Armageddon

A nuclear standoff. One leader is drunk. The other is delirious. The underlings scramble to avoid the worst. This is not an end-of-the-world Hollywood thriller, or an episode in President Trump’s erratic diplomacy. It is a story of how the United States and the Soviet Union found themselves on a collision course in the Middle East.

The Yom Kippur War, fought over several weeks in October 1973, was a tumultuous conflict between Israel and a coalition of Arab states, led by Egypt and Syria. The war ended with a decisive victory for Israel, but even 45 years later, questions about the roles played by the two Cold War superpowers remain.…  Seguir leyendo »

It was a close call for the USS Decatur this week, when a Chinese naval vessel came within yards of the guided-missile destroyer. The Decatur, shown on Oct. 21, 2016, was passing the Spratly Islands, a chain claimed by China. The Pentagon told the Agence France-Presse news agency Sunday that the Decatur “conducted a freedom of navigation operation,” sailing within 12 nautical miles of the Gaven and Johnson reefs in the Spratly Islands. (Petty Officer 2nd Class Diana Quinlan/U.S. Navy/AFP)

U.S. and Chinese warships played a dangerous game of chicken in the South China Sea this week, adding to the rising tensions over trade issues and allegations of Chinese meddling in U.S. elections. U.S.-China relations appear to be on shaky ground — but how will these tensions play out?

For political scientists, a big question in recent years is whether China will remain a firm partner in the “liberal international order” or become a “revisionist power,” one that will overturn existing institutions in pursuit of its global agenda. Many scholars believe that China’s membership in key security, economic and political institutions will limit its ambitions.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Yemeni child suffering from malnutrition lies on a hospital bed in northwestern Hajjah Province on Sept. 19. (Essa Ahmed/AFP/Getty Images)

United Nations Secretary General António Guterres has declared Yemen the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. And for good reason: Guterres noted that amid a civil war, 8.4 million Yemenis are at risk of starvation and that a child under 5 dies of preventable causes every 10 minutes. Since he made those comments in April, the situation has deteriorated further. Recently, the first scheduled peace talks in two years collapsed.

The international community must learn from this devastation. To avert another Yemen, Syria or Iraq, we must prevent violence before it erupts. We can accomplish this by helping at-risk communities improve governance, promote fair economic growth and protect natural resources.…  Seguir leyendo »

En medio de los ataques constantes por parte del presidente norteamericano, Donald Trump, ha comenzado la batalla por el futuro del multilateralismo. Las demandas anteriores de reformas pragmáticas han escalado hasta convertirse en una presión por una transformación general –o inclusive la destrucción total- del marco global de instituciones multilaterales. Trump parece preferir un “sistema” en el que los acuerdos bilaterales reemplacen el orden multilateral basado en reglas. Como Estados Unidos sigue siendo la economía más avanzada del mundo (y una de las más grandes en términos de precios de mercado), cree que Estados Unidos pueden conseguir el mejor “acuerdo” negociando solo, sin ataduras a las reglas internacionales –una visión que extiende a los asuntos militares.…  Seguir leyendo »

Chinese military marching. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images.

Cuando la Unión Soviética colapsó en 1991, el Partido Comunista Chino (PCC) se obsesionó con entender la razón. Los grupos de expertos del gobierno a los que les habían encomendado esta tarea depositaron gran parte de la culpa en Mijail Gorbachov, el líder reformista que no fue lo suficientemente despiadado como para mantener unida la Unión Soviética. Pero los líderes chinos también destacaron otros factores importantes a los que hoy los líderes de China no parecen estar prestándole atención.

Claramente, no hay dudas de que el PCC se ha tomado en serio la primera lección clave: un desempeño económico sólido es esencial para la legitimidad política.…  Seguir leyendo »

Es un lugar común afirmar que el progreso de las tecnologías de la información permite a los ciudadanos colaborar y organizarse en red circunvalando estructuras jerárquicas tradicionales. Sin embargo, el tecnooptimismo está en retirada dando paso al ciberdesencanto. Mientras en las democracias surgen interrogantes acerca del derecho a la privacidad, las cámaras de eco, las fake news o la destrucción de empleo, en los Estados autoritarios los Gobiernos han perfeccionado su capacidad de control sobre la población, de censurar online o de restringir la competencia empresarial.

Los Estados también usan sus cibercapacidades para proyectar poder más allá de sus fronteras. Como comenta en su último libro David Sanger (The New York Times) se trata del “arma perfecta”.…  Seguir leyendo »