Asia (Continuación)

There is a savage irony to the fact that the unfolding horror in Mumbai began with terrorists docking near the Gateway of India. The magnificent arch, built in 1911 to welcome the King-Emperor, has ever since stood as a symbol of the openness of the city. Crowds flock around it, made up of foreign tourists and local yokels; touts hawk their wares; boats bob in the waters, offering cruises out to the open sea. The teeming throngs around it daily reflect India's diversity, with Parsi gentlemen out for their evening constitutionals, Muslim women in burkas taking the sea air, Goan Catholic waiters enjoying a break from their duties at the stately Taj Mahal hotel, Hindus from every corner of the country chatting in a multitude of tongues.…  Seguir leyendo »

Images of that great Bombay monument, the Taj Mahal Palace hotel, engulfed in flames and thick billowing smoke cannot help but recall the collapsing twin towers of 9/11. The attack seems to bear all the hallmarks of an al-Qaeda operation.

The terrorists chose Bombay (Mumbai), the New York of India; they targeted iconic buildings - the Taj and the Chhatrapati Shivaji railway station, the flamboyant mini-St Pancras that is redolent of the Raj-era glory days. The terrorists are reported to have been daring in their approach - they arrived by sea not far from the Raj's 1911 monument to itself, the basalt Gateway of India.…  Seguir leyendo »

La llama prendió en Godhra, en el estado de Gujarat y a 450 kilómetros al norte de Bombay, el 27 de febrero del 2002. Cincuenta y ocho hindúes, entre ellos muchas mujeres y niños, fueron quemados vivos en el incendio de dos vagones de tren repletos de radicales hinduistas que regresaban de la ciudad santa de Ayodhya, centro de una vieja y violenta disputa hindú-musulmana. Las autoridades locales, pertenecientes al partido nacionalista hindú Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) o Partido del Pueblo de la India y que por aquel entonces también ostentaba el poder en el Gobierno del país, acusaron a jóvenes musulmanes de provocar el incendio del convoy, en un extremo que es foco, todavía hoy, de una agria disputa político-judicial en el país.…  Seguir leyendo »

La transición democrática en China ya ha comenzado; el proceso está en marcha. Pero a diferencia de las transiciones en la antigua Unión Soviética y otros países comunistas de Europa del Este, el camino hacia la democracia en China no va a estar configurada por momentos claros de ruptura. Es una transición gradual, paulatina, con características propias.

La referencia a tener en cuenta para comprender la transición política de China no es la transición política en la Unión Soviética, sino cómo se ha producido la transición económica en China. La reforma económica, que se inició hace 30 años, ha sido gradual, paulatina, sin rupturas.…  Seguir leyendo »

The financial crisis is going to do more than increase unemployment, bankruptcy and homelessness. It is also likely to reshape international alignments, sometimes in ways that we would not expect.

As Western powers struggle with the huge scale of the measures needed to revive their economies, they have turned increasingly to China. Last month, for example, Gordon Brown, the British prime minister, asked China to give money to the International Monetary Fund, in return for which Beijing would expect an increase in its voting share.

Now there is speculation that a trade-off for this arrangement involved a major shift in the British position on Tibet, whose leading representatives in exile this weekend called on their leader, the Dalai Lama, to stop sending envoys to Beijing — bringing the faltering talks between China and the exiles to a standstill.…  Seguir leyendo »

In a video blog from Dharamsala in northern India, where last week 500 Tibetans gathered to discuss the future of the struggle, two members of the radical Students for a Free Tibet explained their position. It was perfectly possible, they said, to hold the Dalai Lama in deep respect while disagreeing with his policy. The spiritual leader's "middle way", they argued, had failed. History showed there was nothing to be gained by moderation in the face of Chinese intransigence.

The meeting closed with a strong condemnation of Chinese policies and a reaffirmation of the exiles' faith in the Dalai Lama. But the frustration of younger Tibetans, most of whom have never set foot in the land their parents and grandparents fled nearly 50 years ago, is increasingly evident.…  Seguir leyendo »

Camino de Pekín para asistir a la inauguración de los Juegos Olímpicos, Bush declaró que "China no podrá desarrollar sus potencialidades económicas sin democracia". Después de treinta años con un crecimiento anual entre el 8% y el 12%, parece claro que el autoritarismo político y el desarrollo económico no son incompatibles. Singapur o Hong Kong son buenos ejemplos; como lo fueron, antes de democratizarse, España, Chile, Corea del Sur o Taiwán. Si con democracia China fuera a crecer más, un 15% anual, digamos, más vale aconsejarle que aplace la democratización.

La declaración de Bush vincula el desarrollo económico con el modelo político.…  Seguir leyendo »

Cuenta Greenspan en sus Memorias que en 1994, al intentar convencer al entonces primer ministro chino, Li Peng, de que China abriera más deprisa sus mercados, Li le preguntó cómo explicaba, si Estados Unidos era tan devoto del mercado, el control de precios y salarios decretado por Nixon en 1971. Greenspan contestó que aquella había sido una mala política. ¿Cuál sería hoy el tenor de una conversación entre Li Peng y Greenspan, ambos jubilados, sobre las virtudes y defectos del mercado? O, lo que es lo mismo, ¿cómo será el próximo diálogo entre Wen Jiabao y Paulson?

Lin Mingkang, director de la Comisión Reguladora de la Banca china, ha calificado de "ridículos" los mecanismos financieros norteamericanos que desencadenaron la crisis.…  Seguir leyendo »

An unmanned spacecraft from India — that most worldly and yet otherworldly of nations — is on its way to the moon. For the first time since man and his rockets began trespassing on outer space, a vessel has gone up from a country whose people actually regard the moon as a god.

The Chandrayaan (or “moon craft”) is the closest India has got to the moon since the epic Hindu sage, Narada, tried to reach it on a ladder of considerable (but insufficient) length — as my grandmother’s bedtime version of events would have it. So think of this as a modern Indian pilgrimage to the moon.…  Seguir leyendo »

Record falls in Asian stock markets show that confidence, or the lack of it, knows no borders in a globalised world. This does not, however, mean that Asia is without its own growth drivers in the shape of China and, to some extent, India.

The start of the week saw Asian markets from the Philippines to China fall dramatically, while Hong Kong and Tokyo saw record lows, on the back of a few pieces of bad news. Japan announced a substantial increase in the recapitalisation funds to help its banks to the tune of $110bn. The largest of China's four major state-owned commercial banks, ICBC, reported lower than expected profits, reflecting its $1.3bn exposure to the financial crisis.…  Seguir leyendo »

Almost a year ago, a Buddhist monk on the run from authorities published an op-ed in The Post advocating democracy for his Southeast Asian nation of Burma.

"It matters little if my life or the lives of colleagues should be sacrificed on this journey," U Gambira wrote, describing the nonviolent campaign for freedom. "Others will fill our sandals, and more will join and follow."

As he wrote, the regime already had arrested his father and brother, holding them as hostages to flush him out. It found and arrested him on the same day -- Nov. 4 -- that his article appeared.…  Seguir leyendo »

Tema: Este ARI trata de la interrupción del desmantelamiento del reactor de Yongbyon por Corea del Norte, los desacuerdos en relación con la verificación y la evolución de la política estadounidense hacia la República Popular Democrática de Corea.

Resumen: A mediados de agosto, Corea del Norte tomó la decisión de interrumpir el desmantelamiento del reactor de Yongbyon en respuesta a la decisión estadounidense de no retirar al país asiático de la lista de Estados que promueven el terrorismo hasta que este último consintiera en un sistema de verificación acorde a los estándares internacionales, una aceptación que no se ha producido hasta principios de octubre.…  Seguir leyendo »

Tema: El proceso ASEM es una herramienta flexible que depende de la constante iniciativa de sus socios para reforzar las relaciones entre Europa y Asia y ayudar a ordenar pacíficamente el mundo.

Resumen: El Encuentro entre Asia y Europa (Asia–Europe Meeting, ASEM) iniciado en 1996 permite dialogar y cooperar flexiblemente a varios niveles sobre una gran variedad de temas políticos, económicos y socio–culturales. Sirve a las necesidades actuales de la UE, pero ha ayudado especialmente a los socios asiáticos a desarrollar procesos de cooperación regional, a abrirse ligeramente al resto del mundo y a contar con apoyo de la sociedad civil.…  Seguir leyendo »

Step out of the bus, walk across the courtyard, stop in front of the low-built, blue buildings: Here, in the Joint Security Area -- a neutral space between North and South Korea, under U.N. jurisdiction since the 1953 armistice -- is one of the world's weirdest scenes. About a hundred yards ahead, North Korean soldiers are watching from a balcony, expressionless: Walk toward them and you've defected. Directly behind, equally expressionless South Korean soldiers in sunglasses stand with their arms at their sides, fists curled: If someone walks toward us, they may shoot.

No less odd a scene plays out inside the blue buildings, where a negotiating table has stood for 50 years, precisely along the line that marks the border.…  Seguir leyendo »

Many will criticize the Bush administration's decision to remove North Korea from the terrorism blacklist last weekend, over the objections of close U.S. ally Japan, as a Hail Mary pass by an administration desperate for good news. Did President Bush, reeling from the U.S. financial meltdown and still struggling to achieve success in Iraq, finally relent to North Korean saber rattling and prematurely "delist" a country he once deemed part of the "axis of evil"? Perhaps so. But other factors may have been at play in this controversial decision. In any case, a McCain or Obama administration is likely to reap the benefits of this move.…  Seguir leyendo »

Cuando un país tiene un déficit por cuenta corriente frente al resto del mundo, ello significa que ha recibido más bienes y servicios de los que ha entregado a cambio. La diferencia se ha saldado con activos del país: reales, como casas o fábricas, o, las más de las veces, financieros, como dinero o deuda privada o pública del país en cuestión. Como la deuda crece más o menos al ritmo marcado por el déficit anual, si éste persiste, el resto del mundo va acumulando derechos contra él, consolidando así una posición acreedora.

En el año 2006, el déficit del conjunto de países industriales superaba el medio billón de dólares, y el Fondo Monetario Internacional estimaba que seguiría aumentando hasta 600.000 millones en los próximos cinco años.…  Seguir leyendo »

China cancelled a visit to Washington by a senior general, slapped an indefinite ban on port calls by US naval vessels, and cancelled low-level diplomatic exchanges with the US today, in angry retaliation to a US plan to sell $6.5bn in advanced weaponry to Taiwan.

A spokesman for China's foreign ministry in Beijing, Qin Gang, said the US move broke international law and would cast a shadow over bilateral relations. The proposed sale "has contaminated the sound atmosphere for our military relations and gravely jeopardised China's national security", Qin said.

China regards Taiwan, which has enjoyed de facto independence since 1949, as a renegade province.…  Seguir leyendo »

India's Congress party leadership and the Bush administration were celebrating yesterday after the US Senate finally approved a nuclear cooperation agreement that opens the way for a $14bn investment in new Indian reactors and nuclear plants over the next year alone. The deal also has wider strategic significance, bolstering US-India ties at a time of rising Chinese influence.

President George Bush said the agreement, which took three years to negotiate, would "strengthen our global nuclear non-proliferation efforts, protect the environment, create jobs, and assist India in meeting its growing energy needs responsibly". A spokesman for India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh, who like Bush views the deal as a legacy issue, described it as "historic and unprecedented".…  Seguir leyendo »

The milk was marketed as pure and wholesome, and it looked fine to the naked eye. How were the mothers to know they were poisoning their babies? They had paid good money for it on the open market. It would take thousands of sick children before lawmakers did anything to stop it.

China in 2008? No, New York City in 1858. Missing from the coverage of the current Chinese baby formula poisoning, in which more than 53,000 babies have been sickened and at least four have died, is how often it has happened before.

The disaster unfolding now in China — and spreading inevitably to its trading partners — is eerily similar to the “swill milk” scandal that rumbled on in New York for several decades of the 19th century.…  Seguir leyendo »

La relación con Estados Unidos es un asunto clave para China, quizás el mayor de los desafíos de su diplomacia. La agenda bilateral está repleta de asuntos delicados, especialmente en lo económico: la revalorización del yuan, el déficit comercial, la protección de la propiedad intelectual, la liberalización de las inversiones, etcétera. Sin olvidar las diferencias políticas y las tensiones estratégicas que, periódicamente, visibilizan las discrepancias, ya se hable de derechos humanos o de la falta de transparencia de su presupuesto militar.

A diferencia de su antecesor, el presidente Hu Jintao ha marcado algunas distancias, haciéndose eco del discurso interno partidario de un mayor acercamiento a otros actores, especialmente en el orden regional (Japón, donde acaba de reemplazar a EE UU como mayor mercado exportador, e India), y adoptando un tono menos sumiso del practicado por el ex presidente Jiang Zemin, muy condicionado por la necesidad de obtener el favor de la Casa Blanca para lograr el ingreso de China en la OMC.…  Seguir leyendo »