Cáucaso (Continuación)

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

Me resulta chocante que el pacifismo de tantos sea tan terriblemente selectivo. Nadie se acuerda de Ruanda o de Burundi, las guerras olvidadas de Africa no sacuden ya las conciencias de los occidentales antioccidentales, Darfur parece interesar sólo a algunos en Europa y a pocos más en Estados Unidos, quizá se deba al gancho de George Clooney, hasta para esto somos frívolos. Hay conflictos terribles que cierta progresía conoce de memoria: datos, detalles y hasta las estadísticas muchas veces infladas y siempre blandidas como afiladas espadas contra el adversario. Si no que se lo pregunten al flamante vicesecretario general del PSOE, que recurre a ellos constantemente.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

Las chicas ucranias me vuelven loco de verdad
Dejan Occidente a la zaga
Y las chicas de Moscú me hacen cantar y gritar
Que Georgia siempre está en mi mente.
He vuelto a la URSS
No sabéis cuánta suerte tenéis, chicos,
De vuelta en la URSS
John Lennon & Paul McCartney

No son sólo los osetios del sur los que han vuelto a la URSS esta mañana. Otros georgianos, países del «extranjero cercano» a Rusia, desde el Cáucaso hasta el Báltico, «minorías nacionales» como los chechenos, e incluso los propios rusos, se enfrentan ahora a un país y a unos líderes políticos corruptos, autoritarios, militaristas, y a los que no les preocupa excesivamente dónde acaban sus fronteras.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

Russia is portraying its war in Georgia as a legitimate response to Georgia’s incursion last week into its breakaway region of South Ossetia. Many in the West, while condemning the disproportionate nature of Russia’s response, are also critical of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili for his attempts to bring South Ossetia back under Georgian rule, and of the United States for supposedly encouraging Mr. Saakashvili’s risk-taking by pushing NATO membership for Georgia.

But the truth is that for the past several months, Russia, not Georgia, has been stoking tensions in South Ossetia and another of Georgia’s breakaway areas, Abkhazia. After NATO held a summit in Bucharest, Romania, in April — at which Georgia and Ukraine received positive signs of potential membership — then-President Vladimir Putin of Russia signed a decree effectively treating Abkhazia and South Ossetia as parts of the Russian Federation.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

The Russian tank columns rumbling into Georgia reveal the anger of a tiger finally swatting the mouse that has teased it for years. South Ossetia may seem as distant, trivial and complicated as the 19th-century Schleswig-Holstein question but Russia's fury is about much more than the Ossetians. The Caucasus matters greatly to the Russians for all sorts of reasons, none greater than the fact that it now also matters to us.

The troubles in Georgia are not the equivalent of an assassinated archduke in Sarajevo. But historians may well point to this little war, beside the spectacular Olympic launch of resurgent China, as the start of the twilight of America's sole world hegemony.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

In weeks and years past, each of us has argued on this page that Moscow was pursuing a policy of regime change toward Georgia and its pro-Western, democratically elected president, Mikheil Saakashvili. We predicted that, absent strong and unified Western diplomatic involvement, we were headed toward a war. Now, tragically, an escalation of violence in South Ossetia has culminated in a full-scale Russian invasion of Georgia. The West, and especially the United States, could have prevented this war. We have arrived at a watershed moment in the West's post-Cold War relations with Russia.

Exactly what happened in South Ossetia last week is unclear.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

The details of who did what to precipitate Russia's war against Georgia are not very important. Do you recall the precise details of the Sudeten Crisis that led to Nazi Germany's invasion of Czechoslovakia? Of course not, because that morally ambiguous dispute is rightly remembered as a minor part of a much bigger drama.

The events of the past week will be remembered that way, too. This war did not begin because of a miscalculation by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. It is a war that Moscow has been attempting to provoke for some time. The man who once called the collapse of the Soviet Union "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century" has reestablished a virtual czarist rule in Russia and is trying to restore the country to its once-dominant role in Eurasia and the world.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , , ,

EU foreign ministers meeting in emergency session today to discuss the situation in Georgia should begin by asking why it took the outbreak of war to focus their attention. They had no cause to be surprised. The warning signs had been apparent for at least a year, and the Georgian government had made strenuous efforts to raise the alarm. This time last summer a Russian jet violated Georgian airspace and dropped a missile north of Tbilisi in what appeared to be a botched attack on a Georgian radar installation. Russia denied involvement, but two separate independent investigations found otherwise. Despite this, Georgia's plea for diplomatic support fell almost entirely on deaf ears.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucaso, , ,

Era un acontecimiento anunciado. Georgia y más concretamente sus dos repúblicas separatistas de Osetia del Sur y Abjasia son una caldera hirviendo en la que EE UU y Rusia están echando un pulso de incierto resultado. Incertidumbre que desaparece al considerar los sufrimientos que el enfrentamiento bélico traerá y que son una obviedad como en cualquier conflicto cuando las armas son las que mandan. Las escaramuzas constantes de los aviones espías, las declaraciones más o menos incendiarias y el espíritu de enfrentamiento han dado lugar al bombardeo días atrás de la capital de Osetia del Sur, Tsjinvali, por aviones georgianos, a modo de preludio de la inmediata invasión terrestre de la república separatista que incluye las zonas montañosas de las regiones históricas georgianas de Imereti, Racha y Shida Kartli en las que se instalaron osetas procedentes del Cáucaso norte.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

For the best possible illustration of why Islamic terrorism may one day be considered the least of our problems, look no farther than the BBC's split-screen coverage of yesterday's Olympic opening ceremonies. On one side, fireworks sparkled, and thousands of exotically dressed Chinese dancers bent their bodies into the shape of doves, the cosmos and more. On the other side, gray Russian tanks were shown rolling into South Ossetia, a rebel province of Georgia. The effect was striking: Two of the world's rising powers were strutting their stuff.

The difference, of course, is that one event has been rehearsed for years, while the other, if not a total surprise, was not actually scheduled to take place this week.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

For many people the sight of Russian tanks streaming across a border in August has uncanny echoes of Prague 1968. That cold war reflex is natural enough, but after two decades of Russian retreat from those bastions it is misleading. Not every development in the former Soviet Union is a replay of Soviet history.

The clash between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia, which escalated dramatically yesterday, in truth has more in common with the Falklands war of 1982 than it does with a cold war crisis. When the Argentine junta was basking in public approval for its bloodless recovery of Las Malvinas, Henry Kissinger anticipated Britain's widely unexpected military response with the comment: "No great power retreats for ever."…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropaInternacionalOTAN, ,

Cuando en 1982, con el voto favorable de la mayoría absoluta del Congreso de los Diputados, España entró en la OTAN, el PSOE, entonces anclado en el no a la Alianza, resumió las razones de su rechazo en un folletito -que hoy debe tener la categoría de incunable- titulado, si no recuerdo mal «50 razones en contra de la entrada de España en la OTAN». Una de las cincuenta razones argumentaba, y cito de memoria, que la entrada de España en la Organización atlántica rompería el equilibrio geoestratégico europeo al aumentar el número de miembros de la alianza occidental mientras permanecía invariable el del Pacto de Varsovia.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

There is war in the air between Georgia and Russia. Such a war could destabilize a region critical for Western energy supplies and ruin relations between Russia and the West. A conflict over Georgia could become an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign. How they respond could become a test of the potential commander-in-chief qualities of Barack Obama and John McCain.

The issue appears to be the future of Abkhazia, a breakaway province of Georgia and the focus of a so-called frozen conflict. The real issue, however, is Moscow's desire to subjugate Tbilisi and thwart its aspirations to go west. For several years, Russian policy toward countries on its borders has been hardening.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

Before it happened, nobody imagined that the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo would set off World War I. Before the "shot heard round the world" was fired, I doubt that 18th-century Concord expected to go down in history as the place where the American Revolution began. Before last weekend, when the Russian news agency ITAR-TASS declared that the government of Georgia was about to invade Abkhazia, nobody had really thought about Abkhazia at all. As a public service to readers who need a break from the American presidential campaign, this column is therefore devoted to considering the possibility that Abkhazia could become the starting point of a larger war.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsiaMundoCáucasoInternacionalOTAN

Tema: La Administración Bush creó en su segundo mandato una aproximación específica para el Cáucaso y Asia Central, con el concepto de “Gran Asia Central”. Ahora ha desarrollado un nuevo plan, un Road Map para recuperar su posición entre los Estados de Asia Central. Con la implicación de la OTAN en la zona y la dinámica de la situación en Pakistán y Afganistán, es imperativo establecer una nueva estrategia transatlántica para la zona.

Resumen: Al finalizar la Guerra fría y con la desmembración de la Unión Soviética, EEUU volvió sus ojos hacia una inmensa área de la masa euroasiática comprendida entre el este de Europa y China.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucaso

Armenia's reputation as a stable, democratic country in a troubled region has taken a battering recently. Although international observers gave an overall positive rating to the conduct of last month's presidential election, opposition forces took to the streets, seeking to overturn the people's will. Riots and armed demonstrations left more than 100 injured. Tragically, seven protesters and one police officer died.

Public faith in our economy and political institutions has been undermined. Simply put, we had a competitive election. Dragging this crisis on, literally through the streets, only hurts Armenia. For almost a decade -- since then-President Levon Ter-Petrosyan resigned -- our country has avoided civil uproars and armed violence, allowing for a period of internationally recognized democratic and socioeconomic progress.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucaso,

In Armenia's presidential election last month, I stood as the main opposition candidate against incumbent Prime Minister Serzh Sarkissian. The election followed a sadly familiar script: The regime harassed the opposition's representatives, bribed and intimidated voters, stuffed ballot boxes, and systematically miscounted votes. Indeed, the rigging of the outcome did not begin on Feb. 19. For the duration of the campaign the country's main medium of communication, television, which is tightly controlled by the regime, churned out propaganda that would have made Brezhnev-era Soviet propagandists blush in shame.

We in the opposition were angered by all of this but not surprised.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucaso, , ,

When Ganimat Zahidov, editor of the independent Azadlyq newspaper, arrived for work one day this month in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, he was accosted on the pavement by a young woman he had never seen before who started cursing and shouting at him. Moments later "an athletically built young man popped out of nowhere and began beating me", he said. "I defended myself as best I could."

Within hours, Zahidov had been arrested by police, charged with "hooliganism" and sentenced to two months' pre-trial detention. If found guilty, he faces five years in jail. He joined eight other Azerbaijani journalists, including editor Einulla Fatullaye, who are currently being held after criticising or otherwise annoying the government of President Ilham Aliyev.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucaso,

The French Revolution had its Jacobins; the Russian Revolution erupted in Red Terror. The peaceful revolutions of more recent years weren't supposed to produce violent counterrevolutions. But now one of them has.

Indeed, in a single week, the president of Georgia -- Mikheil Saakashvili, or "Misha" to his friends -- probably did more damage to American "democracy promotion" than a dozen Pervez Musharrafs ever could have done. After all, no one expected much in the way of democracy from Pakistan. But a surprising amount was expected of Georgia -- a small, clannish, mountainous country wedged between Russia and Turkey -- expectations that have now vanished in the crowds of riot police and clouds of tear gas that Saakashvili sent pouring out over the streets of Tbilisi, breaking up street demonstrations there last Wednesday.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucaso

It would be easy to buy into Mikhail Saakashvili's claims that Russian agents are responsible for the latest crisis in Georgia. The president's strong pro-US and pro-Nato stance intensely irritates Moscow and relations between the two countries are dire. Russia routinely exploits separatist and border tensions, and a key oil pipeline running from Azerbaijan to Turkey via Georgia undermines Kremlin efforts to monopolise energy supplies to the west from the Caspian basin.

But leaders of Georgia's recently formed 10-party opposition coalition, and this week's street demonstrators, do not dispute the country's pro-western orientation, which most Georgians, ever wary of Russia, support.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, ,

There are three relevant questions concerning the Armenian genocide.

(a) Did it happen?

(b) Should the U.S. House of Representatives be expressing itself on this now?

(c) Was House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's determination to bring this to a vote, knowing that it risked provoking Turkey into withdrawing crucial assistance to American soldiers in Iraq, a conscious (columnist Thomas Sowell) or unconscious (blogger Mickey Kaus) attempt to sabotage the U.S. war effort?

The answers are:

(a) Yes, unequivocally.

(b) No, unequivocally.

(c) God only knows.

That between 1 million and 1.5 million Armenians were brutally and systematically massacred starting in 1915 in a deliberate genocidal campaign is a matter of simple historical record.…  Seguir leyendo »