Oriente Próximo

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El antiguo yihadista Ahmed al-Sharaa está estableciendo metódicamente los mecanismos básicos de transición política, cumpliendo aparentemente con las mínimas expectativas de las potencias occidentales. Esto no será suficiente para frenar las amenazas a la estabilidad de Siria que crecen a diario, pero sus decisiones y acciones demuestran un entendimiento profundo de las lecciones de las fracasadas revueltas árabes.

Nuevo gobierno

El gobierno que al-Sharaa presentó el pasado 29 de marzo es el último ejemplo del cuidadoso equilibrio que mantiene. Los miembros del consejo administrativo de Idlib, el llamado Gobierno de Salvación, donde el grupo islamista suní Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) gobernó hasta derrotar al régimen de Assad y tomar el control del país el pasado 8 de diciembre, siguen formando la espina dorsal de las nuevas autoridades sirias.…  Seguir leyendo »

The U.S. Must Now Reckon With a Hegemon in the Mideast: Israel

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Israel’s response to the Hamas terror attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, has fundamentally altered the Middle East balance of power in a way not seen since the 1967 Arab-Israeli War. It is time to acknowledge that Israel now looks like the region’s hegemon.

Enabled by the United States, its Arab treaty partners and key Gulf States, the Israelis have broken the Hamas-Hezbollah ring of opposition and revealed the vulnerability and weakness of their patron in Tehran while also degrading Iran’s air defenses and missile production. Israel has expanded its occupation of Syrian territory, taken control of areas of Lebanon just north of its border and undertaken aggressive tactics in the West Bank not seen since the second intifada, which ended 20 years ago.…  Seguir leyendo »

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For 54 years, Syria existed in the shadow of a silence so profound, it swallowed entire lives.

The Assad regime thrived on erasing memory. Forced disappearances, propaganda and violence weren’t just tools of control; they were weapons aimed at obliterating the past. Anti-regime demonstrations were said to be fake news, and innocent civilians kidnapped or killed became “terrorists”. The regime’s vast network of informants, known as the Mukhabarat — its intelligence apparatus — turned neighbor against neighbor, making Syrians fear not just the regime but also one another. Phones were widely believed to be tapped, and a careless word could lead to a midnight abduction.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli army tanks move at a position in southern Israel along the border fence with the northern Gaza Strip on March 18. Menahem Kahana/AFP via Getty Images

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When Israeli jets struck Beit Lahia, Rafah, Nuseirat, and al-Mawasi last month, killing some 400 Palestinians in the process, the assault seemed like the resumption of the war being fought in Gaza since the Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants attacked Israel and killed 1,200 people. The two sides had struck a cease-fire agreement in January that included the release of some Israeli hostages—but the truce fell apart in just weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed the new assault as a means of forcing Hamas to release the remaining hostages. “From now on, negotiations will be conducted only under fire”, he said in a televised address on March 18.…  Seguir leyendo »

It’s a Mistake to Leave Human Rights Out of Iran Talks

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When the Islamic Republic of Iran marked its 46th anniversary in February, protests erupted in the remote southwestern city of Dehdasht. Iranians chanted anti-regime slogans and held signs reading, “From Dehdasht to Tehran, unity, unity”. The demonstrations were part of a national movement that has been simmering since 2022, after the killing of a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, prompted tens of thousands of Iranians to take to the streets to seek justice and demand freedom. The Women, Life, Freedom uprising has continued through rooftop chants, daily defiance of the regime’s hijab law and sporadic, smaller protests across the country.…  Seguir leyendo »

Damascus, Syria, January 11, 2025. Ercin Erturk/Anadolu/Getty Images

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1. My darling Sammour,

After years of silence, I began writing you a letter last October. I gave it the title “Guardian of Hope”, since your absence is bound up with my sense of hope, both personal and public, slowly eroding for the last eleven years. But I stopped after a few lines, for there was nothing I could tell you about the situation. You are the situation. What could someone who has no part in your absence tell you about yourself? Only you experienced it all, and only you can provide full testimony. All this while I have made every effort, Sammour, somehow to forget your disappearance, so as not to spend every minute in its company.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iranian missiles at a museum in Tehran, November 2024 Majid Asgaripour / West Asia News Agency / Reuters

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On Saturday, April 12, American and Iranian officials will restart talks over curbing Tehran’s nuclear program. The talks come after U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter, in early March, to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei proposing negotiations. “We have a very big meeting”, the president said in announcing the talks. “We’ll see what can happen”.

There are reasons to hope that Trump’s overtures will succeed. The president has an almost instinctive love of dealmaking, and he has said he wants to make Iran prosperous again. But there are also reasons to be trepidatious. Even as they have embraced talks, Trump’s officials have upped the pressure on Tehran.…  Seguir leyendo »

A video published by the Palestinian Red Crescent shows the moments before aid workers were killed by Israeli fire in the southern Gaza Strip. Photograph: Palestinian Red Crescent/Reuters

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When the initial news of the executions of eight paramedics from the Palestinian Red Crescent Society (PRCS) and the disappearance of one more broke on Eid al-Fitr, I stared for a long time at the pictures of the men the Israel Defense Forces had killed. I have stared more every day since.

I knew some of these men.

I scan photos of my time in Gaza last year, looking for these men in my memories. I see them with patients, kneeling by the stretchers that acted as beds, dressing wounds, talking, reassuring. I see them loading patients into ambulances and driving off in the summer dust.…  Seguir leyendo »

Forget the Signal Chat. The Strike on the Houthis Was a Necessary Blow

MundoOriente PróximoInternacionalTerrorismo Internacional,

It’s unfortunate that the recent uproar over the use of the Signal messaging app by senior leadership in the Trump administration has obscured the importance of the event they were discussing: a strike against the Houthis on March 15. The attack marked the beginning of a necessary military campaign and a potential turning of the page for the United States in the Middle East.

The Biden administration mostly chose to ignore the growing threat to world commerce posed by the Houthis, an Iran-backed group that President Trump has designated a terrorist organization. Its responses were telegraphed and thoroughly watered down to avoid any possibility of escalation by Iran, and, concomitantly, any lasting damage to the Houthis.…  Seguir leyendo »

Una cena de 'iftar', para poner fin al ayuno del día en Ramadán, en un barrio de Damasco devastado por los bombardeos. Ghaith Alsayed (AP)

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Hace tiempo que Siria dejó de ser ese país del que nada se sabía, que no generaba titulares ni ocupaba portadas. “El reino del silencio”: así lo describía el reconocido líder comunista Riad Turk, que pasó la mayor parte de su vida en las prisiones del régimen de los Asad. Del terror que se ocultaba tras aquel silencio solo los sirios eran conscientes.

Esta dualidad entre la apariencia y la realidad de Siria la explicó muy bien el escritor sirio-alemán Rafik Schami, a través de la metáfora del “piso de dos plantas”: quien visitaba el país como turista solía quedarse impresionado por su belleza, la seguridad de sus calles, la diversidad de sus gentes, su paz aparente.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Harasta, dans la banlieue de Damas, le 1er avril 2025. OMAR SANADIKI / AP

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Un matin de ce mois de mars, avant un rendez-vous dans la vieille ville de Damas, je croise un jeune garçon d’une douzaine d’années, accompagné d’un adulte. Il me demande de l’argent pour manger. La méfiance est bien présente, tant les histoires d’enfants exploités par des réseaux criminels pour mendier sont connues. Mais je ne peux m’empêcher de répondre à la détresse dans son regard. Je lui tends quelques billets de 5 000 livres syriennes, l’équivalent de quelques euros, de quoi acheter du pain pour quelques jours pour une famille. Je l’observe quelques instants après lui avoir donné l’argent. Il reprend son chemin en prenant affectueusement la main de l’adulte, qui ne peut être que son père.…  Seguir leyendo »

Palestinians fleeing Israeli bombardment drive vehicles carrying their belongings on a main axis in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip on March 25, 2025. (Photo by BASHAR TALEB/AFP via Getty Images)

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On 18 March, Israel shattered the fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza with a renewed military assault. The ceasefire had enabled a vital break in the conflict, allowing desperately needed humanitarian aid to enter the Strip. Over 190 Israelis and foreign nationals, held captive since 7 October 2023, had also been released during the pause in fighting – alongside thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody.

The resumption of the war has already claimed hundreds of Palestinian lives with high numbers of women and children among the dead and wounded. Politically, Israel, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) find themselves in a complex situation with no return to negotiations in sight.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Disfrutando un capuchino perfecto y un crujiente cruasán en una apacible calle de Tel Aviv, cuesta imaginar que a 69 kilómetros de distancia, los gazatíes están siendo bombardeados y ametrallados (por no hablar de la violencia constante en Cisjordania, a menos de 65 kilómetros). Cuando en la superficie la vida parece tan civilizada, es fácil olvidar el sufrimiento ajeno.

No quiere decir esto que los israelíes no sean conscientes de la guerra. Pueden verla todo el tiempo en sus televisores, que presentan imágenes de ciudades devastadas en Gaza, así como debates acalorados sobre las últimas noticias. El malestar por la guerra y por los intentos de Binyamin Netanyahu de prolongarla (además de debilitar el poder judicial y otras instituciones de la democracia israelí) es palpable en todas partes, y sobre todo en Tel Aviv, una ciudad mayoritariamente laica y progresista.…  Seguir leyendo »

There’s Still a Chance to Get Syria Right

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Four months after the euphoria that marked the sudden ouster of Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s brutal dictator, the fragility of the country’s new reality is clear.

Syria, awash in weapons and trauma and with almost no money to rebuild, is exceptionally vulnerable. Its economy is in a state of collapse, 90 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, and the state can only provide two hours of electricity a day. Half of the infrastructure is either destroyed or dysfunctional. A recent U.N. report determined that, at current growth rates, Syria would not regain its pre-conflict GDP before 2080.

In this febrile environment, the Islamic State could re-emerge, and the caretaker government, starved for funds, could start trafficking in illicit goods, as the Assad regime did with the illegal amphetamine captagon.…  Seguir leyendo »

Vista aérea de los montes de Qandil. Foto: Stefan Jürgensen (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

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El final de cuatro décadas de insurgencia kurda es la consecuencia más reciente de la guerra de Gaza que, tras comenzar en octubre de 2023, está reconfigurando Oriente Medio. Pese a que la verdadera importancia histórica del 27 de febrero de 2025 para Turquía, Oriente Medio y el sistema internacional se entenderá mejor a su debido tiempo, la sensación de que, tras la caída del régimen de al-Assad, Israel podría echar mano de la influencia kurda contra los intereses turcos fue un factor decisivo para propiciar un acercamiento al líder del Partido de los Trabajadores de Kurdistán (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan.

El 27 de febrero de 2025, Öcalan, que cumple cadena perpetua desde hace 26 años en la isla presidio de İmralı en el mar de Mármara, frente a la costa de Estambul, en una cárcel que recuerda a la isla Robben donde estuvo preso Nelson Mandela frente a Ciudad del Cabo (Sudáfrica), emitió un “Llamamiento por la paz y la sociedad democrática” en el que, a ojos de muchos kurdos, daba instrucciones tácitas a su organización para deponer las armas y disolverse, convocando un congreso en el impenetrable reducto de los montes Qandil, en la frontera norte de Irak con Irán.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israel no debe ignorar las protestas contra Hamás en Gaza

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Normalmente, una pequeña manifestación antibélica no sería noticia de portada, a menos que ocurra en algún lugar como Moscú, donde pocos se atreven a presentar oposición abierta a la agresión del Kremlin contra Ucrania. El riesgo sería aún mayor en Gaza, devastada por la guerra. Incluso antes de este conflicto, la respuesta de Hamás a cualquier crítica a su mal gobierno era represión brutal y tortura. Pero el 25 de marzo, cientos de personas salieron a las calles en Beit Lahiya (norte de Gaza) para protestar no sólo contra la guerra, sino también contra Hamás. Coreando «basta de guerra», «fuera Hamás», «Hamás terroristas», los manifestantes enviaron el mensaje correcto: la guerra no terminará mientras Hamás, que la inició, siga en el poder.…  Seguir leyendo »

Palestinians walk amid the rubble of buildings in Beit Lahia in northern Gaza on March 4. Bashar Taleb/AFP via Getty Images

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The Arab League meeting in Cairo on March 4 intended to deliver a formal response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal for the United States to take control of Gaza and relocate its Palestinian population to other countries, including Egypt and Jordan. In their final communique, Arab leaders condemned Israel for the destruction of Gaza; demanded full implementation of the cease-fire agreement, including an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza; and insisted that the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital was critical for regional peace and security.

Hamas, the de facto authority in Gaza and which orchestrated the Oct.…  Seguir leyendo »