Oriente Próximo (Continuación)

Iranian pro-government supporters hold a giant Palestine flag at Palestine Square in Tehran, on April 14, 2024, in a celebration of the early morning Iran's IRGC attack on Israel. (Photo by HOSSEIN BERIS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

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Iran’s direct drone and missile attack on Israel that lasted several hours on Saturday evening has changed the long-established terms of engagement between the two adversarial states. It has also taken the Middle East closer to a wider conflict that if uncontained will have serious and destabilizing ripple effects across the region.

Iranian-Israeli tensions have long simmered in the shadows of the broader Middle East. Iran has, since the 1979 revolution, taken an anti-Israeli posture and as part of its deterrence strategy has cultivated and financed support for the ‘axis of resistance’ network in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine, surrounding Israel’s borders.…  Seguir leyendo »

El sistema antimisiles de Israel, visto desde Ascalón, se activó con el ataque de Irán el fin de semana. Amir Cohen/Reuters

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Irán lanzó cientos de misiles y drones en un amplio ataque contra Israel el fin de semana.

Casi todos los proyectiles fueron derribados por el ejército israelí con la cooperación del Reino Unido, Estados Unidos y Jordania; sin embargo, una niña de 7 años llamada Amina al-Hasoni resultó gravemente herida.

Hay que recordar que las hostilidades entre ambos países se agudizaron luego de un bombardeo israelí a la Embajada de Irán en Damasco, la capital siria, el 1 de abril en el que murieron siete altos mandos militares iraníes.

Al escribir este boletín, las autoridades israelíes debatían sobre cómo responder, en parte porque distintos actores internacionales —entre ellos EE.…  Seguir leyendo »

Irán: ¿mucho ruido y pocas nueces?

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Hay un término, 'zugzwang', que se usa en ajedrez cuando uno de los jugadores debe responder al movimiento de pieza del contrario y se encuentra en una posición en la que preferiría no hacerlo. Cualquier maniobra en el tablero supone empeorar su situación. Y, sin embargo, debe hacerlo. Esta era la situación de la República Islámica tras el reciente bombardeo de su consulado en Damasco por parte de Israel, bombardeo con el que el Estado hebreo decapitó la estructura de la Guardia Revolucionaria responsable de la planificación militar iraní en Siria y el Levante. El dilema sobre cómo dar respuesta al ataque retrasó la represalia de Teherán más de diez días.…  Seguir leyendo »

El ataque aéreo de Irán a Israel ¿represalia o guerra?

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Desde que comenzó la guerra en Gaza se ha especulado con la posibilidad de que la guerra desbordara el marco de la Franja y escalara a todo el territorio de Israel desde las posiciones hostiles de Hezbolá en el Líbano, las distintas milicias proiraníes en Irak y los rebeldes huzíes de Yemen, entre muchas otras que rodean a Israel. Tras el ataque aéreo iraní a Israel del pasado sábado 13 de abril, 12 días después de que Israel atacara el consulado iraní en Damasco provocando 12 víctimas incluido un alto oficial de la Guardia Revolucionaria iraní, se añade ahora la especulación de que el ataque masivo de drones y misiles desde Irán provoque una guerra abierta entre Irán e Israel.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Alors que la stratégie iranienne était, jusqu’au 13 avril, d’éviter de s’impliquer directement dans le conflit au Proche-Orient, un pas a été franchi, pour la première fois depuis l’instauration de la République islamique, avec l’attaque lancée contre Israël.

Quelles en sont les raisons ? Les relations entre Téhéran et Tel-Aviv n’ont cessé de se dégrader depuis l’instauration de la République islamique d’Iran, en 1979. Le projet de la jeune république d’exporter sa révolution islamique, puis la constitution de « l’axe de la résistance » ont dégradés les liens entre les deux pays. La création du Hezbollah, le « Parti de Dieu » libanais, avec l’aide de Téhéran, au début des années 1980, a accru les tensions car des attaques partant du sud du Liban atteignent régulièrement le nord d’Israël.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Over the past 30 years I have worked in war zones around the world as a surgeon treating casualties resulting from conflict, including in Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan and Iraq. War wounds, the effects of fragments from blast injuries and gunshot wounds require a special set of skills to manage.

At times there are mass casualties, and some of the patients I have seen over more than 30 war missions had overwhelming injuries that even the best units in the world would struggle to treat. The majority of injuries, though, could be dealt with using the resources at hand. Most patients at least had a good chance of arriving at a hospital within a timeframe that allowed them to have the best surgical decision-making.…  Seguir leyendo »

Keeping U.S. Power Behind Israel Will Keep Iran at Bay

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Until Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones against Israel, the two countries had avoided open military intrusions into each other’s territory. Tehran most often acted through proxies, and Jerusalem via bombing runs and unacknowledged assassinations in the region.

Iran’s unprecedented attack this weekend, which failed to kill a single Israeli, has perhaps now opened the clerical regime to a major reprisal. The White House clearly does not want Jerusalem to undertake such a response, fearing escalation that could bring the United States into a regional war.

But the chances are good that Israel will strike back to deter future direct attacks.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israel-Irán: ¿quién ataca a quién?

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Israel e Irán llevan años sumidos en una violenta dinámica de acción y reacción que incluye ciberataques mutuos, asesinato de científicos nucleares iraníes y secuestros de buques ligados a Tel Aviv. El ataque lanzado la madrugada del domingo por Irán contra Israel para vengar el asesinato de sus mandos militares en Damasco el pasado día 1 no es, por tanto, el inicio de nada, sino más bien la continuación de un proceso que, a buen seguro, irá seguido de una réplica israelí. No es, en todo caso, un ataque más, aunque solo sea por el hecho de que en esta ocasión, en lugar de recurrir a algunos de sus aliados regionales para que el lanzamiento de drones y misiles se produjera desde orígenes de fuego ajenos, Teherán ha decidido hacerlo desde su propio suelo.…  Seguir leyendo »

El presidente iraní, Ebrahim Raisi, visita la base naval del IRGC en el sur de Irán. EFE

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El 7 de octubre supuso el comienzo de la quinta guerra de Israel. La primera que no es contra un país árabe, sino contra un país persa: Irán.

Las atrocidades cometidas por los terroristas de Hamás sólo fueron la primera parte de algo mucho mayor que fue planeado entre Doha, Moscú y Teherán. La operación no pudo salir mejor, ya que a los 1.600 asesinatos cometidos por Hamás se le unieron las 240 personas que fueron secuestradas, y de las cuales 130 siguen en Gaza.

El hecho de que hubiera rehenes en poder de Hamás condicionó y retrasó la respuesta a la acción de Hamás, lo que a medio plazo ha enfangado a Israel en una guerra de la que sólo ha sacado desgaste y errores.…  Seguir leyendo »

An antimissile system firing as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, on Saturday night after Iran launched drones and missiles toward Israel. (Amir Cohen/Reuters)

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After six frustrating months in Gaza, Israel finally won a decisive victory against its adversaries by blunting Iran’s all-out missile attack Saturday night with an astonishing display of high-tech military prowess.

“A good defense is the best offense” is a truism in sports. Israel demonstrated that this precept might apply to modern warfare, as well. In neutering an Iranian barrage — which included more than 100 ballistic missiles, 150 drones and 30 cruise missiles — Israel showed that in combat, the shield can be as powerful as the sword.

“It was a worst-case scenario in what Iran launched, but a best case in terms of the outcome”, Brett McGurk, the Middle East director for the National Security Council, said in an interview.…  Seguir leyendo »

An Israeli anti-missile system operating after Iran launched drones and missiles, seen from Ashkelon, Israel, April 2024. Majid Asgaripour / West Asia News Agency / Reuters

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On April 13, Iran launched Operation True Promise, its response to Israel’s April 1 attack on its consulate in Syria. Over the course of less than 24 hours, Tehran fired a combination of more than 300 hundred drones and missiles at Israeli military facilities. Senior commanders hailed the attack—which involved the first-ever direct strikes launched against Israel from Iranian territory—as successful in sending a message, even though Israel and its allies successfully downed nearly all the incoming fire.

Policymakers and pundits have known for days that the Islamic Republic would retaliate for Israel’s strike in Damascus, which killed several senior Iranian commanders and personnel.…  Seguir leyendo »

Distributing aid in Deir al-Balah, Gaza, April 2024. Ramadan Abed / Reuters

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Then Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel on April 13, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza seemed to move to the back burner. But even if the Israel-Hamas war expands, the world—and Israel—must not lose focus on helping Gazans get healthcare, find shelter, and receive food and water. No Israeli effort to stave off an Iranian threat, much less defeat Hamas for good, can succeed without a strong humanitarian aid component. Israel will need allies if the conflict widens, and the current situation in Gaza—some 1.7 million people are already displaced, and much of the population is believed to be at the risk of famine—continues ​to degrade Israel’s reputation in the Middle East and worldwide.…  Seguir leyendo »

El ejército israelí dice que el 99% de los drones y misiles fueron interceptados. Atef Safadi/EPA

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Irán lanzó más de 300 drones y misiles contra Israel en el primer ataque directo del régimen islámico contra el Estado judío. Al margen de los drones militares, también hubo varias oleadas de misiles balísticos, misiles de crucero y cohetes, procedentes de Irán, Irak, Yemen y Líbano.

Este ataque múltiple sin precedentes constituye una declaración de guerra de facto. Sin embargo, a pesar de la escala de la operación, constituye un fracaso táctico.

Si Irán quería poner a prueba la capacidad de Israel para hacer frente a un asalto aéreo con múltiples frentes, entonces el resultado israelí es casi perfecto. Según las Fuerzas de Defensa de Israel (IDF), el 99% de los más de 330 proyectiles disparados (al menos 185 drones, 110 misiles tierra-tierra y 36 misiles de crucero) fueron interceptados, en su mayoría sobre otros países.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iraníes celebran en las calles de Teherán el ataque contra Israel, en la noche del sábado. Reuters

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El ataque iraní a Israel ha empezado. Y no se trata únicamente de la respuesta a la muerte de sus generales en el bombardeo israelí sobre Damasco. Al contrario, acaba de estallar un conflicto regional que durará varias semanas y que consistirá en un intercambio de salvas de misiles, drones y cohetes de artillería destinados a golpear el corazón de la economía, la industria y los activos militares del adversario.

Los objetivos prioritarios de Irán serán las fábricas que ensamblan el sistema Cúpula de Hierro y sus misiles; los vitales puertos de Haifa y Eilat, que dan acceso al mar Rojo y al mar Mediterráneo respectivamente, así como determinadas instalaciones militares consistentes en bases (especialmente aéreas y navales); centros de mando y centros productivos y, por último, la central nuclear del Néguev o las infraestructuras eléctricas e hidrológicas del mar de Galilea.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iranians attend the funeral procession for seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a strike in Syria, which Iran blamed on Israel, in Tehran on 5 April 2024. (Photo by HOSSEIN BERIS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images).

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The Middle East is waiting with bated breath to see how Iran will avenge Israel’s suspected killing of seven Iranian military officers in a strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus on 1 April. Tehran has made it clear that it will respond. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has publicly stated that Israel ‘must be punished’, and the United States has communicated to Israel that Iranian retaliation is imminent.

Although Israel and Iran have been involved in a shadow war for several years, Israel’s strike in Damascus was particularly bold and painful. In one swoop, Israel wiped out Iran’s military leadership in Syria as well as a vital link with Hezbollah –General Mohammad Reza Zahedi – Iran’s most important and powerful proxy in the region.…  Seguir leyendo »

An excavator clears rubble after an Israeli strike this week on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria. (Firas Makdesi/Reuters)

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The Biden administration is using every diplomatic and military tool to contain what officials expect will be an imminent Iranian reprisal attack against Israel — in the hope that U.S. pressure can keep the conflict from escalating into a regionwide catastrophe.

Call it “the guns of April”. Though this is hardly a conflagration on the order of World War I, it’s a moment that eerily evokes the dynamics of summer 1914, when a war that every power sought to avoid suddenly appeared inevitable, with consequences that no one could predict. Officials hope that any exchange between Iran and Israel will be short and contained — and won’t draw in other powers.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israel’s attack signalled a shift in its strategy towards Iran. Tehran’s response and the US promise of ‘ironclad’ support for Israel risks escalation of this transnational conflict.

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The suspected Israeli attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus on 1 April marks an unprecedented escalation by Israel against Iran in Syria. The killing of Iran’s top soldier, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, among other Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders, is the clearest signal yet of Israel’s determination to shift the conflict’s rules of engagement – moving beyond simply preventing arms supplies to Hezbollah or pushing Iranian-backed groups away from its border, to directly eliminating Iranian leadership in Syria.

There is a real risk that Iranian-backed groups will intensify their targeting of US forces and Israel in response to this latest attack, leading to heightened escalations in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and possibly Jordan.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iraqi soldiers at a military parade in Baghdad, January 2024. Iraqi Prime Minister Media Office / Reuters

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Most Iraqi prime ministers serving in the past two decades have at some point asked the U.S. military to leave their country. Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari made the first public call for a U.S. withdrawal in 2005, followed by Nouri al-Maliki in 2008, Adel Abdul-Mahdi in 2020, and Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, the current incumbent, in December 2023. For much of this period, these requests have originated with the Iranian-backed Islamist militia groups operating in Iraq, which have pushed the country’s political leaders to demand a drawdown of U.S. forces.

Bilateral negotiations over the past 15 years or so have dramatically reduced the U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israel’s Security Depends on Rafah

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Unfortunately, Benjamin Netanyahu is right — “unfortunately”, I say, because he is the most incompetent, corrupt and divisive Israeli prime minister ever, as many in Israel believe. But he is right that it’s crucial for Israel to conquer Rafah and destroy the Hamas battalions ensconced in that city at the southern end of the Gaza Strip, protected by a human shield of some 1.4 million residents and refugees from the north.

If this does not happen, Hamas will survive to fight and murder and rape another day — and its leader, Yahya Sinwar, will emerge from his hiding place declaring victory.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli soldiers patrolling near the border with Gaza, April 2024. Amir Cohen / Reuters

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The war Israel launched on Hamas after the group’s horrific October 7 attacks is a righteous mission. Hamas fighters massacred hundreds of innocent people, deliberately killed children and the elderly, and raped and mutilated women. They abducted hundreds of civilians—including women, infants, and octogenarians—and held them captive in dismal conditions, subject to abuse and starvation. Their actions contravened any sense of law and humanitarian principles. The slaughterers, still spattered with blood, made gleeful boasts about their atrocities that were broadcast in horrific videos and quoted in news articles. In response, Israel has waged a just war of self-defense.

But Israelis are not the only ones suffering.…  Seguir leyendo »