Oriente Próximo (Continuación)

An Israeli military vehicle rides on the Golan Heights side of the ceasefire line with Syria on Dec.18. (Shir Torem/Reuters)

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Since suffering the worst attack in Israel’s history on Oct. 7, 2023, the Israel Defense Forces have won one battle after another against both Hamas and Hezbollah, greatly diminishing the threat posed by both terrorist groups. But is Israel’s military getting dangerously overextended in a “forever war” in the Gaza Strip?

That is my fear since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to resume military operations on March 18. This marked the end of a ceasefire with Hamas that began on Jan. 19 and resulted in the release of 30 Israelis hostages and nearly 1,800 Palestinian prisoners. Israel and Hamas were supposed to undertake negotiations for a permanent ceasefire but those talks never got off the ground, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence.…  Seguir leyendo »

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa leaves a meeting with the Qatari foreign minister during the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Antalya, Turkey, on April 11. Ozan Kose/ AFP via Getty Images

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In the history of the Middle East, Syria’s current transition to a new form of government is in a category of its own. Desperate to avoid the mistakes that their counterparts in other Arab countries have made in recent decades, the new interim authorities under President Ahmed al-Sharaa have achieved impressive progress in their effort to transition to a stable political environment. For all their attempts to build something new, however, the leadership has remained incapable of thinking past Syria’s old, discredited system of centralized, highly concentrated presidential governance.

That approach, coupled with the huge economic and social threats that Syrians face after more than a decade of war, could cause the whole transition to fail.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Négocier avec un adversaire désarmé en pointant un pistolet sur sa tempe, c’est l’inviter à une reddition sans conditions. Il semble que nous assistions à ce scénario entre Donald Trump et le régime des mollahs iraniens. En 2018, Trump avait déchiré l’accord international sur le nucléaire iranien approuvé par son prédécesseur, puis fait exécuter en 2020 le général Qassem Soleimani, architecte de l’expansion régionale de l’Iran et concepteur de son «axe de la résistance» chargé d’étrangler Israël et qui a culminé avec l’attaque du 7 octobre 2023. Désormais, avec des bombardiers furtifs B2 déployés à Diego Garcia et deux porte-avions dépêchés sur zone, Trump ne laissera plus à l’Iran l’opportunité de ruser pour gagner du temps et attendre l’arrivée d’un successeur plus clément à la Maison Blanche.…  Seguir leyendo »

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El antiguo yihadista Ahmed al-Sharaa está estableciendo metódicamente los mecanismos básicos de transición política, cumpliendo aparentemente con las mínimas expectativas de las potencias occidentales. Esto no será suficiente para frenar las amenazas a la estabilidad de Siria que crecen a diario, pero sus decisiones y acciones demuestran un entendimiento profundo de las lecciones de las fracasadas revueltas árabes.

Nuevo gobierno

El gobierno que al-Sharaa presentó el pasado 29 de marzo es el último ejemplo del cuidadoso equilibrio que mantiene. Los miembros del consejo administrativo de Idlib, el llamado Gobierno de Salvación, donde el grupo islamista suní Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) gobernó hasta derrotar al régimen de Assad y tomar el control del país el pasado 8 de diciembre, siguen formando la espina dorsal de las nuevas autoridades sirias.…  Seguir leyendo »

The U.S. Must Now Reckon With a Hegemon in the Mideast: Israel

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Israel’s response to the Hamas terror attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, has fundamentally altered the Middle East balance of power in a way not seen since the 1967 Arab-Israeli War. It is time to acknowledge that Israel now looks like the region’s hegemon.

Enabled by the United States, its Arab treaty partners and key Gulf States, the Israelis have broken the Hamas-Hezbollah ring of opposition and revealed the vulnerability and weakness of their patron in Tehran while also degrading Iran’s air defenses and missile production. Israel has expanded its occupation of Syrian territory, taken control of areas of Lebanon just north of its border and undertaken aggressive tactics in the West Bank not seen since the second intifada, which ended 20 years ago.…  Seguir leyendo »

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For 54 years, Syria existed in the shadow of a silence so profound, it swallowed entire lives.

The Assad regime thrived on erasing memory. Forced disappearances, propaganda and violence weren’t just tools of control; they were weapons aimed at obliterating the past. Anti-regime demonstrations were said to be fake news, and innocent civilians kidnapped or killed became “terrorists”. The regime’s vast network of informants, known as the Mukhabarat — its intelligence apparatus — turned neighbor against neighbor, making Syrians fear not just the regime but also one another. Phones were widely believed to be tapped, and a careless word could lead to a midnight abduction.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli army tanks move at a position in southern Israel along the border fence with the northern Gaza Strip on March 18. Menahem Kahana/AFP via Getty Images

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When Israeli jets struck Beit Lahia, Rafah, Nuseirat, and al-Mawasi last month, killing some 400 Palestinians in the process, the assault seemed like the resumption of the war being fought in Gaza since the Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants attacked Israel and killed 1,200 people. The two sides had struck a cease-fire agreement in January that included the release of some Israeli hostages—but the truce fell apart in just weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed the new assault as a means of forcing Hamas to release the remaining hostages. “From now on, negotiations will be conducted only under fire”, he said in a televised address on March 18.…  Seguir leyendo »

It’s a Mistake to Leave Human Rights Out of Iran Talks

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When the Islamic Republic of Iran marked its 46th anniversary in February, protests erupted in the remote southwestern city of Dehdasht. Iranians chanted anti-regime slogans and held signs reading, “From Dehdasht to Tehran, unity, unity”. The demonstrations were part of a national movement that has been simmering since 2022, after the killing of a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, prompted tens of thousands of Iranians to take to the streets to seek justice and demand freedom. The Women, Life, Freedom uprising has continued through rooftop chants, daily defiance of the regime’s hijab law and sporadic, smaller protests across the country.…  Seguir leyendo »

Damascus, Syria, January 11, 2025. Ercin Erturk/Anadolu/Getty Images

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1. My darling Sammour,

After years of silence, I began writing you a letter last October. I gave it the title “Guardian of Hope”, since your absence is bound up with my sense of hope, both personal and public, slowly eroding for the last eleven years. But I stopped after a few lines, for there was nothing I could tell you about the situation. You are the situation. What could someone who has no part in your absence tell you about yourself? Only you experienced it all, and only you can provide full testimony. All this while I have made every effort, Sammour, somehow to forget your disappearance, so as not to spend every minute in its company.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iranian missiles at a museum in Tehran, November 2024 Majid Asgaripour / West Asia News Agency / Reuters

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On Saturday, April 12, American and Iranian officials will restart talks over curbing Tehran’s nuclear program. The talks come after U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter, in early March, to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei proposing negotiations. “We have a very big meeting”, the president said in announcing the talks. “We’ll see what can happen”.

There are reasons to hope that Trump’s overtures will succeed. The president has an almost instinctive love of dealmaking, and he has said he wants to make Iran prosperous again. But there are also reasons to be trepidatious. Even as they have embraced talks, Trump’s officials have upped the pressure on Tehran.…  Seguir leyendo »

A video published by the Palestinian Red Crescent shows the moments before aid workers were killed by Israeli fire in the southern Gaza Strip. Photograph: Palestinian Red Crescent/Reuters

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When the initial news of the executions of eight paramedics from the Palestinian Red Crescent Society (PRCS) and the disappearance of one more broke on Eid al-Fitr, I stared for a long time at the pictures of the men the Israel Defense Forces had killed. I have stared more every day since.

I knew some of these men.

I scan photos of my time in Gaza last year, looking for these men in my memories. I see them with patients, kneeling by the stretchers that acted as beds, dressing wounds, talking, reassuring. I see them loading patients into ambulances and driving off in the summer dust.…  Seguir leyendo »

Forget the Signal Chat. The Strike on the Houthis Was a Necessary Blow

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It’s unfortunate that the recent uproar over the use of the Signal messaging app by senior leadership in the Trump administration has obscured the importance of the event they were discussing: a strike against the Houthis on March 15. The attack marked the beginning of a necessary military campaign and a potential turning of the page for the United States in the Middle East.

The Biden administration mostly chose to ignore the growing threat to world commerce posed by the Houthis, an Iran-backed group that President Trump has designated a terrorist organization. Its responses were telegraphed and thoroughly watered down to avoid any possibility of escalation by Iran, and, concomitantly, any lasting damage to the Houthis.…  Seguir leyendo »

Una cena de 'iftar', para poner fin al ayuno del día en Ramadán, en un barrio de Damasco devastado por los bombardeos. Ghaith Alsayed (AP)

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Hace tiempo que Siria dejó de ser ese país del que nada se sabía, que no generaba titulares ni ocupaba portadas. “El reino del silencio”: así lo describía el reconocido líder comunista Riad Turk, que pasó la mayor parte de su vida en las prisiones del régimen de los Asad. Del terror que se ocultaba tras aquel silencio solo los sirios eran conscientes.

Esta dualidad entre la apariencia y la realidad de Siria la explicó muy bien el escritor sirio-alemán Rafik Schami, a través de la metáfora del “piso de dos plantas”: quien visitaba el país como turista solía quedarse impresionado por su belleza, la seguridad de sus calles, la diversidad de sus gentes, su paz aparente.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Harasta, dans la banlieue de Damas, le 1er avril 2025. OMAR SANADIKI / AP

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Un matin de ce mois de mars, avant un rendez-vous dans la vieille ville de Damas, je croise un jeune garçon d’une douzaine d’années, accompagné d’un adulte. Il me demande de l’argent pour manger. La méfiance est bien présente, tant les histoires d’enfants exploités par des réseaux criminels pour mendier sont connues. Mais je ne peux m’empêcher de répondre à la détresse dans son regard. Je lui tends quelques billets de 5 000 livres syriennes, l’équivalent de quelques euros, de quoi acheter du pain pour quelques jours pour une famille. Je l’observe quelques instants après lui avoir donné l’argent. Il reprend son chemin en prenant affectueusement la main de l’adulte, qui ne peut être que son père.…  Seguir leyendo »

Palestinians fleeing Israeli bombardment drive vehicles carrying their belongings on a main axis in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip on March 25, 2025. (Photo by BASHAR TALEB/AFP via Getty Images)

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On 18 March, Israel shattered the fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza with a renewed military assault. The ceasefire had enabled a vital break in the conflict, allowing desperately needed humanitarian aid to enter the Strip. Over 190 Israelis and foreign nationals, held captive since 7 October 2023, had also been released during the pause in fighting – alongside thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody.

The resumption of the war has already claimed hundreds of Palestinian lives with high numbers of women and children among the dead and wounded. Politically, Israel, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) find themselves in a complex situation with no return to negotiations in sight.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Disfrutando un capuchino perfecto y un crujiente cruasán en una apacible calle de Tel Aviv, cuesta imaginar que a 69 kilómetros de distancia, los gazatíes están siendo bombardeados y ametrallados (por no hablar de la violencia constante en Cisjordania, a menos de 65 kilómetros). Cuando en la superficie la vida parece tan civilizada, es fácil olvidar el sufrimiento ajeno.

No quiere decir esto que los israelíes no sean conscientes de la guerra. Pueden verla todo el tiempo en sus televisores, que presentan imágenes de ciudades devastadas en Gaza, así como debates acalorados sobre las últimas noticias. El malestar por la guerra y por los intentos de Binyamin Netanyahu de prolongarla (además de debilitar el poder judicial y otras instituciones de la democracia israelí) es palpable en todas partes, y sobre todo en Tel Aviv, una ciudad mayoritariamente laica y progresista.…  Seguir leyendo »

There’s Still a Chance to Get Syria Right

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Four months after the euphoria that marked the sudden ouster of Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s brutal dictator, the fragility of the country’s new reality is clear.

Syria, awash in weapons and trauma and with almost no money to rebuild, is exceptionally vulnerable. Its economy is in a state of collapse, 90 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, and the state can only provide two hours of electricity a day. Half of the infrastructure is either destroyed or dysfunctional. A recent U.N. report determined that, at current growth rates, Syria would not regain its pre-conflict GDP before 2080.

In this febrile environment, the Islamic State could re-emerge, and the caretaker government, starved for funds, could start trafficking in illicit goods, as the Assad regime did with the illegal amphetamine captagon.…  Seguir leyendo »