China's one-child policy is slowly being eased

A story has surfaced on a Chinese blog – subsequently picked up by the Toronto Sun and Al-Jazeera – about a woman from a county in Xiamen city, south-eastern China, who at eight months pregnant was dragged from her home by family planning officials, beaten up, detained for three days and then forced to undergo an abortion. This, it is claimed, was because she already had a nine-year-old daughter and was violating the rules of the one-child policy.

Whatever the truth of these allegations, this kind of event is extremely rare now in China – especially in urban China, where it could not be kept secret. The officials involved could expect punishment for such an abuse of their power. In the very early years of the policy in the early 1980s such stories of forced abortion were not rare, but the way the one-child policy has been interpreted and enforced has changed with the times. This is partly because people are accustomed to its constraints: one child allowed for urban residents and two for rural residents, especially when the first is a girl. This acceptance means that there is much less need to employ coercive or punitive measures.

When the policy was introduced in 1979, it was planned to last for a generation. The original goal was to slow the population growth rate. This has been achieved, but at the price of a rapidly increasing proportion of elderly dependent people, and a worrying excess of males in many parts of China. This is because couples choose to abort female foetuses in order to guarantee a boy, within the constraints of small family size and a strong tradition of son preference.

The government has been considering options for relaxing the policy. China has undergone massive socioeconomic change during the past 30 years. With the freedoms that have resulted from wealth and globalisation, the one-child policy seems increasingly anachronistic. Increased wealth and freedom also make it harder for the government to enforce the policy. The cost of bringing up more than one child does not deter many wealthy people, and increased freedom of movement has made it difficult for family planning authorities to track down people if they choose to flout the regulations.

One possibility for relaxation is that everyone could be allowed to have up to two children, with a space of at least five years between them. It is thought that this would be acceptable to the majority of people, would help to reduce the excess in male births and would help with the problem of care of the elderly. There are real concerns about what is known as the 4-2-1 phenomenon: families with four grandparents, two parents and one child taking care of them all.

But the government feels that vigilance is still essential. It fears that an accelerated increase in population growth could threaten economic growth and stability. There are particular concerns about the increasing level of migration from rural to urban areas, which has fuelled substantial urban growth. So a softly-softly approach is being taken. In most of urban China now, an only child marrying an only child is allowed to have two children. Interestingly, many of the young couples who are now eligible to have two are choosing to have just one child. This is perhaps less surprising when one considers that east Asia boasts some of the lowest fertility rates in the world. (The fertility rate is the average number of children born to each woman, with replacement fertility therefore at around 2.1). Hong Kong has a fertility rate of one, Taiwan 1.1 and Japan 1.3, alongside a figure of 1.6 for China.

Another recent change has been that couples no longer need to obtain permission to have a first child. This spelt the end of the very unpopular system of local birth quotas, which meant that couples were forced to delay pregnancy if the local quota was exceeded. These changes, together with declining fertility aspirations, have reduced (though not eliminated) the tensions associated with the government's efforts to control population growth.

The Shanghai government is now considering incentives to encourage couples to have two children. Other city governments may feel the need to follow suit.

Therese Hesketh, professor of Global Health at the UCL Institute of Global Health.