By Simon Tisdall (THE GUARDIAN, 03/10/06):
Tension between Russia and Georgia has been building for months and will not be defused even if the latest clash over alleged Russian spying is resolved. Territorial, ethnic and religious disputes, local politics, ideology and history are all contributing factors. But the broader context is a continuing post-cold war struggle for influence between Moscow and Washington in the strategic trans-Caucasus region.Since winning power after the western-backed 2003 "rose revolution", President Mikhail Saakashvili has moved to integrate Georgia into Nato and the European Union. The US has been especially supportive, with President George Bush visiting Tbilisi last year. Mr Saakashvili accuses Russia of seeking regime change and encouraging separatist movements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Speaking at the UN last month, he said Moscow was conducting a "gangster occupation" of parts of his country.
Buoyed by the partial reverse of Ukraine's "orange revolution" in elections earlier this year, Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, now has his eye on Georgia. He has dragged out the withdrawal of 4,000 Russian "peacekeepers" from two bases there, imposed economic sanctions, and reportedly met Abkhazian and South Ossetian leaders. Put simply, Russia views Georgia as part of its "patch" - the post-Soviet space it seeks to dominate.
With some justification, Mr Saakashvili says on-off mediation efforts by the EU, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and the UN's so-called "Group of Friends" (which includes the US and Britain) have proved inadequate. "If we fail to unite in support of new mechanisms to advance peace, we give a green light to those who seek otherwise and risk plunging the region into darkness and conflict," he warned the UN.
But his call for a "fresh roadmap" and an international peacekeeping force is opposed by Russia. Mr Putin places separatist issues in Georgia in the otherwise unconnected context of current talks on Kosovo's final status. Moscow argues that if the west grants Kosovo independence from Serbia (which Russia opposes), then Abkhazia and South Ossetia should receive similar consideration. Amid Georgian protests, Russia is supporting an independence referendum in Ossetia next month as it did a similar vote in Moldova's breakaway Transdniestria province in September.
But opponents say Mr Saakashvili is also not above whipping up nationalist sentiment for his own political purposes. They claim recent arrests after an alleged Russian-backed coup plot were no more than "political persecution" intended to help his National Movement retain power in Thursday's local elections. The Labour party has accused the government of growing authoritarianism and attempting "to destroy Georgia's multiparty system".
In true Caucasian style, the motives of the Bush administration, which supplies aid and military advisers, are not wholly altruistic either. "Georgia's geo-strategic importance for Washington is increasing," said an analysis published by Power & Interest News Report.
"Georgia and Azerbaijan form a gateway to the Caspian Sea and are vital for control of central Asia's fossil resources, as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline testifies," it said. Georgia also suits Washington's democracy agenda.
But, in bearding the Russian bear, Georgia should be wary of over-confidence, said Stephen Blank of the US Army War College in an article for EurasiaNet.org. "In the event of a war Russia would probably disregard American pleas for restraint and aim to achieve a decisive victory to crush the Saakashvili administration and humiliate Washington," Prof Blank said. "Indeed, the very idea that Washington would risk conflict with Moscow over South Ossetia is delusional."