On Tuesday, the first day of a two-day referendum on Egypt’s new constitution, voters outside the main polling station in this provincial city didn’t want to talk about the content of the new national charter. Instead, they focused on what this vote has come to signify: support for the army, and abhorrence of the Muslim Brotherhood.
“We’re here so the world will know that this is the people’s will, not a military coup,” said Iman Mahmoud, a middle-aged housewife who, like everyone else in line, intended to vote in favor of the new constitution.
“We don’t want the Muslim Brotherhood or Morsi,” said Dalia Abdel Aziz, standing next to her, referring to the Islamist organization and to Mohamed Morsi, who was ousted as president in July. “They’re terrorists.”
This run-down city of half a million in the Nile Delta, about 120 kilometers north of Cairo, last month witnessed the worst terrorist attack in Egypt’s recent history. A bomb tore through a police headquarters, killing at least 15 people and wounding over 130. In less than a month, the building has been rebuilt and freshly painted, though it is surrounded by rubble and the fractured remains of nearby buildings.
Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, a jihadist group that has carried out several other attacks in the last six months, claimed credit for the Dec. 24 attack. But the Interior Ministry nonetheless blamed the Muslim Brotherhood — which emerged after President Hosni Mubarak’s ouster in 2011 as Egypt’s dominant political force — and the next day a government decree designated the Islamist group a terrorist organization.
In Mansoura, many voters waved Egyptian flags and held portraits of Gen. Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi, who led the military’s overthrow of President Morsi following massive street protests, and who is inching toward his own candidacy for the presidency.
No one here said they would vote no. Then again, the Brotherhood has called for a boycott, and most of the demoralized young activists and bloggers who were at the forefront of the 2011 uprising — part of a shrinking middle ground opposed to both military and Islamist rule — have also chosen not to participate.
But it’s hard to gauge public opinion when dissenters are so thoroughly shouted down, or in prison.
The Brotherhood has been the target of a massive crackdown, its supporters killed in street fighting and arrested by the thousands, its leadership (including Mr. Morsi) on trial for charges ranging from incitement to espionage. Many of the secular activists instrumental in laying the ground for the 2011 uprising against Mr. Mubarak are also in jail, charged with organizing illegal protests in violation of a repressive new law. Three reporters with Al Jazeera English recently joined the many journalists who have been arrested, seemingly simply for having met with members of the Brotherhood.
As the day wore on, the atmosphere outside the polling station here grew frenzied, with dancing, singing and chants of “Long live Egypt!” Passing vans and cars blasted nationalist songs. Street vendors made a brisk business selling flags. But in the rest of the city, it was business as usual, without the sense of momentousness that surrounded earlier votes. The forced unanimity and festivity were reminiscent of referendums under Mr. Mubarak. Then, too, there was also only one acceptable way to vote, and those who disagreed simply stayed home.
The government wanted to surpass the turnout (33 percent) and approval (64 percent) that the Islamists mustered for their constitutional referendum in December 2012. (Unofficial tallies released on Thursday indicated that the charter had been overwhelmingly approved, but final results aren’t in yet.)
So for the last month, Egypt was blanketed with posters and ads urging a yes vote — many of them financed anonymously by businessmen with ties to the Mubarak regime. TV and radio stations put dozens of nationalist, get-out-the-vote songs on air. (The army’s morale division even produced one.) Meanwhile, the authorities harassed and arrested the few who campaigned for a no vote.
But a recent survey found that nearly 60 percent of respondents hadn’t read the draft constitution. There has been little substantive discussion of the charter, which would make several improvements over the Brotherhood’s 2012 constitution, but would give the military and the judiciary protection from civilian oversight.
Egyptians largely see the vote as a chance to reject the Brotherhood and support the army-backed regime and its leader. “If you love el-Sisi, and you want him to run, then you must participate in the referendum and vote yes,” Mahmoud Badr, a leader of the pro-military group Tamarrod, told a recent rally. General Sisi has suggested that, if the public demanded it, he would consider running, out of patriotic duty — exactly the kind of statement Mr. Mubarak made during his nearly 30 years in power. If General Sisi becomes president, it will mark Egypt’s return to military autocracy.
This is the third constitutional referendum since Mr. Mubarak was forced out. Security conditions have deteriorated and political divisions deepened. Instead of real conversation about policies and politics, the debate has been reduced to slogans: vote for Islam, vote to protect Egypt from terrorism and foreign plots.
This constitution promises, on paper, a way forward. But the onslaught against the Brotherhood risks creating more religious extremism, and a long cycle of violence and repression. Drafted by an appointed assembly with only two Islamists among its 50 members, the constitution in theory would enshrine many crucial rights and freedoms. But these ideals are completely at odds with the politicized trials and human rights violations in the name of fighting “terrorism.”
The result of the vote is not in question. But it is unlikely that even resounding approval will bring to Egypt the stability, democracy and development that the interim government and its military backers are promising.
Ursula Lindsey is a reporter and writer based in Cairo.