Armas nucleares (Continuación)

MundoOriente Próximo,

A final deal that allows Iran to retain centrifuges for uranium enrichment ultimately would allow the development of nuclear weapons in Iran, encourage a Sunni-Shiite arms race in the Middle East and weaken counterproliferation efforts worldwide.

Iran already possesses ballistic missiles suited to carry nuclear warheads and advanced knowledge of weaponization. Given that the production of fissile material — whether by enriching uranium in centrifuges or extracting plutonium from nuclear reactors — is the principal stage in the process of making a nuclear weapon, acquiescing to Iranian enrichment is tantamount to legitimizing Iran’s status on the nuclear threshold.

Proposals for the final agreement to restrict the number of centrifuges are almost irrelevant.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

El 18 de febrero, se iniciaron en Viena unas negociaciones decisivas sobre el programa nuclear del Irán entre este país y los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas más Alemania (el P5+1). La opción substitutiva de las conversaciones es un mayor aumento de la capacidad nuclear del Irán, al que seguirían otras sanciones internacionales y, con el tiempo, otra guerra en Oriente Medio, que, como considera todo el mundo, no puede resolver el problema. Así, pues, ¿se podrá lograr un acuerdo amplio que respete el derecho del Irán a utilizar la energía nuclear para fines civiles y al mismo tiempo atenuar los temores de militarización?…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The pictures of an Iranian fleet approaching the U.S. shores sadly serve as a reminder of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis with old Cold War concepts of balance of power, psychological warfare and testing of U.S. administration combativeness.

Although the 2014 Iran-U.S. configuration is different from the 1962 USSR-U.S. war theater, the idea of firepower threatening North America’s coasts is deeply troubling.

The aggressiveness of Iran reached a new high, leading to one single conclusion: The Islamist regime of Tehran must be repelled.

Thirty-five years ago, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini lectured the world about his theocratic ideology, and then quickly withdrew to moderate democratic statements.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

In an all-too-familiar ritual of diplomacy, the great powers and Iran will gather in Vienna on Tuesday to hammer out a comprehensive nuclear agreement. There will be lofty rhetoric about mutual understanding and mutual compromise. All sides will be advised to desist from their maximalist demands, as the best that can be achieved is an ambiguous accord that leaves Iran short of nuclear arms but still having made great strides toward nuclear capability. Such seemingly sober calculations miss the fact that the United States is not dealing with the Soviet Union but a beleaguered middling power that may still be coerced into more expansive concessions.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaMundoOriente Próximo, , ,

At discussions with world leaders during conferences in Davos, Switzerland, and Munich last month, it became clear to me that the most important challenge facing the United States in the Middle East is managing Saudi Arabia’s reaction to the unexpected breakthrough in nuclear talks with Iran.

The Saudis are angry; they fear that a nuclear deal would free the United States to put the Middle East on the back burner as it switches its full attention to China and the rest of Asia. That would leave Iran, in the absence of economic sanctions, free to expand its sphere of influence.

To be sure, Secretary of State John Kerry argued forcefully, at both the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos and the Munich Security Conference, that America remains fully engaged in the Middle East.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The continuing nuclear talks with Iran have just entered their most challenging phase. During the next six months, the U.S. and its negotiating partners will try, in the words of President Barack Obama, to persuade Iran to agree on a “peaceful nuclear program,” including a “modest enrichment capability,” that leaves it short of the ability to produce nuclear weapons.

This task will be far harder to achieve than is generally understood.

A civilian program to enrich uranium for nuclear power must, by its nature, be many times larger than a bomb program. That is the opposite of what most people think.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaMundoOriente Próximo, ,

Remember Syria's chemical weapons? Yes, those, the ones the Syrian regime agreed to give up after President Obama threatened to bomb.

All of the "priority one" the most dangerous of those weapons, were supposed to be gone by December 31 last year. They're not. Almost all of them -- more than 95% -- are still in Syria despite a commitment by the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to get rid of his deadly arsenal.

The deal to remove Syria's stock of WMD was the one tangible accomplishment of the Obama administration's approach to the Middle East's multiple crises. Now that deal looks to be failing, even as red flags also start flying along the path to a deal with Iran.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, ,

There are only two ways to keep Iran from developing a nuclear weapon: negotiations or military action.

Amazingly, after 34 years of mostly diplomatic silence between Iran and the United States, we are in the midst of just such negotiations, with the potential to eliminate the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran.

Instead of cautiously welcoming this development and letting these talks play out over the next six months, however, proposals are circulating in Congress that seek to impose additional sanctions in the middle of the negotiations. This step, we fear, risks scuttling the process and could have damaging ramifications for the United States as well as our regional allies and partners, especially Israel.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaMundoOriente Próximo, ,

An unusual fear is gripping the Arab world, namely that nuclear diplomacy may yet bring Iran and the United States into a close regional embrace. This may seem comical given the legacy of mistrust separating the two nations. Yet this concern among Arab rulers, fueled by progress toward a final agreement on Tehran’s nuclear program, may have some justification in history. The United States has never been able to pursue arms control without delusion and has always insisted on sanctifying its negotiating partners, conjuring up moderates and searching for common ground. The challenge for Washington today is to defy its history and reach a nuclear agreement with Iran while negating the Islamic Republic’s regional ambitions.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

A diplomatic breakthrough resulting in a peaceful and verifiable termination of Iran’s nuclear weapons program is the preferred outcome of the Obama administration’s negotiations with Iran.

Backing up this achievement by taking out a diplomatic insurance policy is an act of reasonable pragmatism.

The need for additional prospective sanctions is already clear. Since an agreement was reached in Geneva in November:

— Iran has continued elements of construction in Arak, a heavy-water nuclear reactor site that, if completed, would provide an alternate plutonium track to a nuclear weapon.

— Iran announced that it is building a new generation of centrifuges for uranium enrichment and conceded that it has 19,000 centrifuges, a thousand more than previously disclosed.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, ,

As Iranian and Western diplomats continue to negotiate over Iran’s nuclear program, the details will matter more and more. Obstinacy and obfuscation will return the two sides to deadlock. But there is hope for the long term if Iran and America are willing to break with the past.

Iran has very little to show for its 50 years of nuclear pursuit. It has only one commercial reactor ready for electricity production at Bushehr that was supplied by Russia without Iran learning much about the technologies needed for the manufacturing and construction of reactors. The country also has an aging 1960s-era American-supplied research reactor on its last legs of medical isotope production.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Iran has been constructing a “heavy-water” nuclear reactor near Arak, capable of producing weapons-grade Plutonium-239 — sufficient for about one bomb per year. This program is in addition to the ongoing production of fissionable Uranium-235 by isotope enrichment with centrifuges.

The Geneva Interim Agreement, announced in November, would stop Iran’s reactor construction — at least according to the White House press release. Iran does not share this interpretation. Negotiations are continuing in Vienna to try to settle this dispute.

Meanwhile, Israel, not bound by the Geneva Agreement, may decide to bomb the Arak reactor and eliminate one sure route for Iran to gain a nuclear weapon.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, ,

Luego de la reciente visita del ministro de Relaciones Exteriores iraní, Javad Zarif, a los estados del Golfo, todo está dado para que la ofensiva amistosa de la República Islámica continúe con el viaje del presidente Hassan Rouhani a Turquía a comienzos del mes próximo. A diferencia de la mayoría de los vecinos árabes de Irán, Turquía inequívocamente recibió con beneplácito el acuerdo nuclear interino sellado el mes pasado entre Irán y el P5+1 (los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas y Alemania). Pero los estrategas políticos turcos son profundamente conscientes de que el acuerdo puede trabucar el frágil equilibrio de poder de Oriente Medio.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, , ,

The recent interim nuclear agreement between Iran and the so-called P5-plus-1 countries, led by the United States, has provoked unprecedented criticism of U.S. policy from two of its strongest Mideast allies: Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called on his ministers and his supporters in the U.S. to lobby Congress to oppose the agreement. Meanwhile, Saudi officials have accused the U.S. of selling out its allies for little security in return.

The apparent coincidence of Israeli and Saudi interests over Iran has fueled media reports that the two countries are coordinating strategies to confront the Islamic Republic.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoÁfrica,

It would be a mistake to think that the end of the Cold War also ended the threat posed by nuclear weapons. Nuclear-armed states continue to deploy huge arsenals of nuclear weapons, other states continue with their efforts to acquire nuclear weapons, and there is the alarming possibility that such weapons might fall into the hands of terrorists.

Accordingly, it might be helpful to consider the factors that led South Africa to develop nuclear weapons in the 1970s, and the reasons why it decided to dismantle them in 1989.

In 1974, as Soviet influence began expanding in southern Africa, our country decided to build a small number of nuclear bombs.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, , ,

The Geneva Interim Accord on Iran’s nuclear programs may trigger Israeli military action.

As these talks continue and drag on, look for a startling development: Israel may attack Iran’s heavy-water reactor — now being completed near Arak — arguing that Iran does not need to manufacture weapons-grade plutonium if its nuclear programs are truly peaceful as claimed. Not being involved in the interim agreement, Israel would be free to act, points out 2008 presidential candidate Mike Huckabee in a recent interview.

Former U.S. Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and George Shultz wrote in a Dec. 2 opinion article in The Wall Street Journal that six U.N.…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalOrden Mundial

The hermit state of North Korea became a nuclear power in 2006-07, despite lots of foreign aid aimed at precluding just such proliferation — help usually not otherwise accorded to such an isolated dictatorship. Apparently, the civilized world rightly suspected that if it went nuclear, Pyongyang would either export nuclear material and expertise to other unstable countries or bully its successful but non-nuclear neighbors — or both.

The United States has given billions of dollars in foreign aid to Pakistan, whose Islamist gangs have spearheaded radical anti-American terrorism. Since a corrupt Pakistan went nuclear in 1998, it has been able to extort such foreign payouts — on fears that one of its nukes might end up in the hands of terrorists

By any measure of economic success or political stability, Pakistan would not warrant either the cash or the attention it wins without nuclear weapons.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

El enriquecimiento de uranio ha sido el foco de la disputa sobre el programa nuclear iraní entre este país y las potencias mundiales, especialmente Estados Unidos, desde el año 2003. Irán viene argumentando que el enriquecimiento es su “derecho inalienable” en virtud del Tratado de No Proliferación (TNP) y que detener ese proceso es una “línea roja” que no se puede cruzar. Estados Unidos se ha opuesto a la posición de Irán.

El 24 de noviembre, después de cuatro días de conversaciones maratonianas, Irán y el Grupo 5+1 (los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU más Alemania), firmaron finalmente el acuerdo provisional de Ginebra; debe interpretarse como el preámbulo para una solución integral y a largo plazo.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Derrière les avancées sur le dossier nucléaire, l’accord entre l’Iran et le groupe des six puissances porte en lui les germes d’une «rupture stratégique». Outre sa force symbolique, cet accord s’avère historique car il ouvre un nouveau champ des possibles : il laisse entrevoir une éventuelle reconfiguration des relations Iran - Occident, et par suite une recomposition de la géopolitique du Golfe et du Moyen-Orient.

La question du nucléaire - civil et militaire - en Iran remonte à l’époque du chah. Une volonté de puissance relativement admise par les Occidentaux, à une époque où le régime iranien incarnait un «allié stratégique» dans une «région stratégique» pour l’exploitation et l’exportation des hydrocarbures.…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalOrden Mundial,

The interim agreement reached in Geneva between the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany (the P5-plus-one) and Iran is probably the best deal to curtail Iran’s nuclear program that could be reached, given current circumstances.

The United States and its Western allies were unwilling to risk a military option, and not concluding a deal would have allowed Iran to proceed unimpeded toward acquiring nuclear weapons.

In an ideal world, Iran should have been forced to scrap its nuclear program altogether and hand over all of its enriched uranium to an outside power; but realistically that was unattainable.…  Seguir leyendo »