Armas nucleares (Continuación)

InternacionalOrden Mundial

When presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev meet today for the first time, they will have an historic opportunity to confront the most urgent security threat to our world: the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the risk of nuclear terrorism. The two leaders can move beyond traditional arms control and, in a bold move, set the world on a course towards the total elimination of all nuclear weapons - global zero.

In London, they should agree that the US and the Russian Federation will begin work immediately to achieve an accord for deep reductions in their arsenals and then lead a longer-term effort with other nuclear powers to eliminate all nuclear weapons worldwide through phased and verified reductions.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión EuropeaConvención y TratadosEuropaUnión EuropeaDefensa y Seguridad,

Estamos tan ocupados en contemplar lo que va a hacer la Administración Obama que nos olvidamos de nuestras propias tareas. En la Unión Europea, el Gobierno de la República Checa, que ostenta la Presidencia semestral de los Veintisiete, ha vuelto a aplazar la ratificación parlamentaria del Tratado de Lisboa.

Inicialmente, el motivo explícito era que la coalición de extraños compañeros de cama ODS (derecha eurofóbica-verdes-comunistas) subordina esta cuestión esencial para la UE a la votación previa del escudo antimisiles propuesto por el ya ex presidente George Bush en suelo checo y polaco. Sin embargo, el Gobierno checo ahora busca otros pretextos para dicho aplazamiento, a la vista del giro político en EEUU y de la crisis geopolítica del gas con Rusia, país al que pretende dejar fuera de su propuesta de ampliación de la UE hacia el Este.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Should we be worried? The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that the Iranians' uranium enrichment programme is proceeding, though perhaps at a slower pace. Iran is not answering questions raised by western intelligence. The IAEA cannot exclude the possibility that the Iranian programme has military aspects. So, yes, there should be concern, but there is even more reason to be distressed that this has been going on for years in full view, yet has not been met with effective diplomacy.

The demands that Iran should accept ever more inspection are meaningless. They are not made to help Iran show its lack of weapons intentions but in the hope that convincing incriminating evidence will be found.…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalOrden Mundial

The Obama administration seems ready to resuscitate relations with Russia, including by renewing nuclear-arms-reduction talks. Even before the inaugural parade wound down, the White House Web site offered up a list of ambitious nuclear policy goals, with everything from making bomb-making materials more secure to the eventual abolition of nuclear weapons.

That’s welcome news, but for such goals to be realized, the White House will need to be prepared to reimagine and reshape the nuclear era and, against strong opposition, break free from cold war thinking and better address the threats America faces today.

George W. Bush actually started down this road.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia,

Will North Korea ever give up its nuclear weapons?

To test its intentions, I submitted a detailed proposal to Foreign Ministry nuclear negotiator Li Gun for a "grand bargain" in advance of a visit to Pyongyang last month. North Korea, I suggested, would surrender to the International Atomic Energy Agency the 68 pounds of plutonium it has already declared in denuclearization negotiations. In return, the United States would conclude a peace treaty formally ending the Korean War, normalize diplomatic and economic relations, put food and energy aid on a long-term basis, and support large-scale multilateral credits for rehabilitation of North Korea's economic infrastructure.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Las relaciones con Irán y, en el marco de ellas, el programa nuclear de este país serán tarde o temprano una de las grandes cuestiones de política exterior que deberá abordar la nueva Administración de Barack Obama. El enfrentamiento entre ambos países es una de las mayores fuentes de inestabilidad en Oriente Próximo y Medio. Obama ha afirmado que, sin renunciar a un enfoque duro, apoya una diplomacia directa y «sin condiciones» con Irán. Esto sería una buena noticia porque treinta años de aislamiento y presión no han logrado nada hasta la fecha. Además, ambos países, aunque no lo hayan reconocido, comparten intereses comunes en numerosos asuntos.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The presidential campaign failed to address the hard choices America must make to contain the Iranian nuclear threat. By focusing almost exclusively on tactics, the election obscured the questions that really matter: What should the United States demand when it finally talks to Iran? And when Iran rejects our opening position, how much should we compromise to come to a deal?

The opening act, after all, is entirely predictable. The Obama administration will likely begin negotiations by insisting that Iran suspend its efforts to enrich uranium. Compliance with this requirement — imposed by the United Nations Security Council in July 2006 and reiterated several times since — has been the goal of the European-led negotiations with Iran that President Obama faulted the Bush administration for not joining.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica,

For all their agreement on matters such as Afghanistan and defense spending, President-elect Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Robert Gates are on record disagreeing over a central matter for U.S. security: the future of nuclear weapons.

The issue is whether the United States should build the "reliable replacement warhead," a matter that has major ramifications for all U.S. nuclear policy, including whether to ratify the comprehensive treaty banning nuclear tests and whether we will be able to work with other countries to stem proliferation.

The reliable replacement warhead, known as the RRW, which Congress has refused to fund despite repeated requests from the Bush administration, would not require nuclear testing -- in contrast to today's high-performance designs with their low margins for error.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaMundoOriente Próximo, ,

Nine months have passed since the United Nations Security Council approved its most recent resolution imposing sanctions on Iran. That resolution, like its two predecessors, has failed to deter Tehran, which will soon be in a position to create a working nuclear weapon. Western intelligence establishments estimate that date as not later than mid-2010.

The problem with any Security Council resolution is that Russia and China, two of the five permanent members, have refused to adopt biting measures. Without tougher sanctions, there is no hope that Iran will reconsider its determination to make a bomb and finally begin to negotiate seriously with the West.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión EuropeaDefensa y Seguridad,

Of late Gordon Brown reminds one of a chap whose wife has informed him that there is a massive hole in the family budget. She will watch with a raised eyebrow as he finds a temporary VAT cut down the back of the sofa, and presents it to her with an imploring look. She will sigh in exasperated sympathy as he remembers £700m worth of supertax in an old post office account. And then she will point gently at the utterly undiminished hole in the balance sheet, and say: "I don't mean to state the bleeding obvious, love, but there is a sports car sitting in the garage, and I can't help feeling this might be the moment to let it go".…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalOTAN

Tema: Este ARI plantea que los Estados miembros de la OTAN deben reexaminar la necesidad de una presencia nuclear norteamericana en Europa.

Resumen: La presencia nuclear de EEUU en Europa –un legado de la Guerra Fría– ha sido objeto de debate recurrente en la Alianza Atlántica durante décadas. Pero hay buenas razones para creer que en los próximos años se desarrollará un nuevo debate sustancial sobre la cuestión dada la convergencia de acontecimientos que deben tener lugar entre los años 2009 y 2015. La próxima Conferencia de Revisión del Tratado de No Proliferación Nuclear(NPT, por sus siglas en inglés)se celebrará en 2010.…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalOrden Mundial

As he embarks on the uphill struggle to translate dreams into realities, one strategic goal President-elect Barack Obama should embrace on his inauguration day is that of a world freed from the threat of nuclear weapons. In doing so, he can build on an impressive body of detailed, bipartisan, unofficial policy planning in the United States. He can expect an enthusiastic response from hundreds of millions of his supporters around the world who are hoping he will think and act big. He can be equally sure of crocodile smiles masking determined opposition from several countries that possess nuclear weapons, as well as other states and dark forces who would like nothing more than to have them - and, in some cases such as the Islamic Republic of Iran, are actively working towards acquiring them.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Ever since Iran publicised its nuclear fuel cycle plans in 2003, western experts have tried to downplay its rate of progress in nuclear engineering. The Iranian scientific community is often viewed as technologically inept. Relatively minor obstacles have been portrayed as next to insurmountable. These arguments are now growing increasingly false – Tehran is adding centrifuges faster than the UN security council can step up the pressure. Time is not working in the favour of the west.

Iran is making good progress in many key areas of nuclear engineering. Presently, it has some 4,000 operational centrifuges at its facility in Natanz.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

It is likely that the first and most pressing national security issue the next president will face is the growing prospect of a nuclear-weapons-capable Iran. After co-chairing a recently concluded, high-level task force on Iranian nuclear development, we have come to believe that five principles must serve as the foundation of any reasonable, bipartisan and comprehensive Iranian policy.

First, an Islamic Republic of Iran with nuclear weapons capability would be strategically untenable. It would threaten U.S. national security, regional peace and stability, energy security, the efficacy of multilateralism, and the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime. While a nuclear attack is the worst-case scenario, Iran would not need to employ a nuclear arsenal to threaten U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia,

Tema: Este ARI trata de la interrupción del desmantelamiento del reactor de Yongbyon por Corea del Norte, los desacuerdos en relación con la verificación y la evolución de la política estadounidense hacia la República Popular Democrática de Corea.

Resumen: A mediados de agosto, Corea del Norte tomó la decisión de interrumpir el desmantelamiento del reactor de Yongbyon en respuesta a la decisión estadounidense de no retirar al país asiático de la lista de Estados que promueven el terrorismo hasta que este último consintiera en un sistema de verificación acorde a los estándares internacionales, una aceptación que no se ha producido hasta principios de octubre.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión EuropeaDefensa y Seguridad, ,

What will be the fate of "Britain's" nuclear deterrent if Scotland becomes independent? If the result of the Glenrothes byelection on November 6 mirrors that of Glasgow East, an answer may soon be needed. This is the biggest conundrum among a series of challenges concerning Scotland's stance on defence if the country were to become an independent state - leaving England, Wales and Northern Ireland (EWNI) as a separate independent state.

Defence is a fundamental attribute of statehood. Yet "Britain's" nuclear forces, which are supported by MPs and the general population in EWNI, are situated in Scotland. They are not supported by either the Scottish people or the Scottish parliament.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, ,

La desesperada súplica de Israel para que el mundo impida lo que sus servicios de inteligencia denominan la "galopada hacia una bomba nuclear" de Irán no ha tenido la respuesta positiva que Israel esperaba.

Ahora que el régimen de sanciones de Naciones Unidas ha demostrado ser completamente ineficaz, y la diplomacia internacional aparentemente incapaz de impedir que los iraníes controlen la tecnología de enriquecimiento de uranio, Israel está contra las cuerdas. Lo que se suponía que debía ser un gran esfuerzo internacional de mediación está deteriorándose y convirtiéndose en un apocalíptico enfrentamiento entre Israel e Irán.

Es una anomalía interesante porque, a pesar de la vomitiva retórica antisemítica del presidente iraní, Mahmud Ahmadineyad, las repercusiones del aumento de poder de Irán van mucho más allá del Estado judío.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The coverage of the latest bombastic tour of Manhattan by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran may have obscured the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency has released its latest report on Tehran’s nuclear program, and it contains some unpleasant news: By the time we inaugurate our next president, Iran is likely to achieve “virtual” nuclear weapon status. This means that it will be able to produce, within a few months of deciding to do so, enough weapon-grade uranium to fuel a bomb.

But how is that possible? After all, about the only thing the Bush administration and our European allies seem to agree on regarding Iran is that there is a lot more time for diplomacy and sanctions to work before the ayatollahs can cross the nuclear line.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaInternacionalTerrorismo Internacional,

El próximo presidente de Estados Unidos debe hacer una cosa, sólo una, si aspira a que su mandato sea considerado un éxito: ha de impedir que Al Qaeda o una imitación de Al Qaeda logre hacerse con el control de un arma nuclear y la haga estallar en Estados Unidos. Todo lo demás (Fannie Mae, la reforma de la atención sanitaria, la independencia energética, el déficit presupuestario de Wasilla, Alaska) es accesorio. La destrucción del Bajo Manhattan o del centro de Washington causaría muertos por millares o por centenares de miles, una crisis económica catastrófica, una marcha atrás en la globalización, un ambiente permanente de miedo en Occidente y la negación total de la cultura norteamericana de derechos y libertades.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaInternacionalTerrorismo Internacional,

The next president must do one thing, and one thing only, if he is to be judged a success: He must prevent Al Qaeda, or a Qaeda imitator, from gaining control of a nuclear device and detonating it in America. Everything else — Fannie Mae, health care reform, energy independence, the budget shortfall in Wasilla, Alaska — is commentary. The nuclear destruction of Lower Manhattan, or downtown Washington, would cause the deaths of thousands, or hundreds of thousands; a catastrophic depression; the reversal of globalization; a permanent climate of fear in the West; and the comprehensive repudiation of America’s culture of civil liberties.…  Seguir leyendo »