China (Continuación)

MundoAsia,

China has — rightly — been the toast of economic and political commentators alike for the way that it has pulled itself out of poverty to become the world’s second biggest economy and potential megapower in just 45 years since Deng Xiaoping opened the door to the outside world, an unprecedented achievement.

But two official announcements last month show that the progress has come with a large price. Unconventional Economist expressed the problem bluntly on the macrobusiness site, declaring that, “China will grow old before it grows rich.”

Not everyone is so pessimistic. One internationally respected economist of Chinese origin said, “China has a 15-20 year window of opportunity, which is the time between now and when the population peaks.…  Seguir leyendo »

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On Aug. 26, I read a rather frightening op-ed in the Los Angeles Times coauthored by David Gompert — until recently the second-highest-ranking U.S. intelligence official in the Obama administration. What scared me was his sober assessment of the possibility that a conflict in the maritime arena could trigger a China-U.S. Armageddon — at least for Asia. This is not a new thought but heretofore had been the domain of fiction writers, wolf-criers and video-game makers.

There is now little doubt that China and the West are going to clash. They are already competing in both military and civilian ways and more fundamentally in values and the pursuit of political power.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, ,

As show trials go, the drama featuring Bo Xilai, the once-swaggering, media-savvy former Chinese Communist Party (CCP) chief of Chongqing, veered anomalously into improvisation. Before the proceedings began, the conventional wisdom was that Bo’s trial had been carefully scripted and rehearsed to portray a forlorn and penitent sinner confessing his crimes and apologizing to the Party.

But the historic five-day trial dispelled any notion that Bo would go quietly to his cell in Beijing’s infamous Qincheng Prison, where China’s fallen top leaders are incarcerated. He challenged the prosecution vigorously, defending himself with a feistiness that surprised nearly all who read the transcripts released by the court in real time on the trial’s first day.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, ,

The just-concluded trial of Bo Xilai will be remembered as one of the most critical political milestones in contemporary Chinese Communist history. For many years after Chairman Mao’s death in 1976, show trials were straightforward affairs. For their role in the devastating Cultural Revolution, the Gang of Four were simply charged with “anti-party activities” and convicted. Today, a political trial needs to take into consideration many more factors.

As China assumes a more central role in international affairs and touts its rapid economic growth over the past 30 years, its leaders seek to establish a reputation for governing society according to the rule of law.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaMundoAsia,

The specter of economic doomsday makes war between China and the United States as unthinkable as fear of nuclear doomsday made Soviet-U.S. war. Or does it? In fact, Chinese and American military planners are thinking in exquisite detail, as they are expected to do, about how to win such a conflict. The problem is that the specific plans being concocted could make hostilities less unthinkable, and two great powers with every reason to avoid war could find themselves in one.

Having been impotent against two U.S. aircraft carriers during the Taiwan crisis of 1996, the People's Liberation Army has concluded, as Chinese military writings show, that the best way to avoid another such humiliation is by striking U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, ,

The second day of what should be China’s trial of the century opened at 8:40 a.m. on Friday with a tweet: “The presiding judge has called the court into session”. The source was the Jinan Intermediate People’s Court by way of its account on Sina Weibo, China’s most popular microblogging service, and the court’s 400,000 followers.

It shouldn’t have gone viral. But it did.

Within 10 minutes, this unremarkable post had been retweeted more than 2,000 times. Such numbers, and such speed, are usually reserved for tweets with a little more verbal panache, or celebrities posting selfies. So why the sudden interest in when a court convened?…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, ,

The trial of Bo Xilai, the fallen Chinese Communist Party official and former member of the ruling Politburo, is attracting the world’s attention with its tales of corruption, sex, murder and political intrigue. But while such details are riveting, they divert attention from the real meaning of the case.

Mr. Bo’s trial has been dressed up by the Chinese Communist Party as part of its anticorruption campaign. (As with Chen Liangyu and Chen Xitong, two other high-ranking party officials who were tried for corruption, Mr. Bo has met his fate most likely as a result of power struggles within the party.)…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, ,

A rising political star. A murderous wife. An attempted cover-up. A runaway police chief. A playboy son. A secret French villa. A corrupt official. A political downfall.

This conflagration of events surrounding the former high-ranking Chinese official Bo Xilai has captured the imagination of China watchers around the world. After 18 months of speculation, preparation and anticipation, Bo’s trial on charges of corruption and abuse of power began Thursday in Jinan, China.

The trial, with its predetermined outcome, will not be the climax of Bo’s story as much as the beginning of its long denouement as the Communist Party seeks to sweep this scandal under the carpet and turn its attention to the country’s economic problems.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia

Podemos, quizá, aceptar que China, como muchos vaticinan, se convierta a corto plazo en la primera potencia económica del planeta. Aunque la gloria no está del todo cantada, tanto en función de las dificultades de su proceso de reforma como de las reacciones de los países desarrollados de Occidente a través, entre otros, del fomento de acuerdos de libre comercio de gran amplitud, dicha realidad pudiera llegar a confirmarse en pocos años.

Otra cosa es, sin embargo, que China disponga de los atributos indispensables para afirmarse como una potencia global integral. Y no se trataría tanto de sus insuficiencias en materia tecnológica o militar, que trata de corregir a marchas forzadas habilitando políticas y presupuestos millonarios, ni del agravamiento de las contradicciones sociales o políticas, que le exigirán por largo tiempo una exhaustiva atención a los asuntos internos, sino de algo más sutil y de mayor alcance, esto es, la carencia de un pensamiento, de una ideología que pudiéramos calificar de universal.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaMundoAsiaInternacionalEconomía,

La economía del siglo XXI se ha visto hasta ahora moldeada por los flujos de capital de China y Estados Unidos –un patrón que contuvo las tasas de interés mundiales, ayudó a revigorizar la burbuja de apalancamiento en el mundo desarrollado y, gracias a su impacto sobre el mercado monetario, impulsó el meteórico ascenso chino. Pero no se trató de flujos de capital ordinarios. En vez de ser impulsados por inversiones directas o de cartera, provinieron principalmente de la acumulación por el Banco Popular Chino (BPC) de $3,5 billones en reservas en moneda extranjera –en gran medida, bonos del Tesoro de EE. …  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia

La del sueño chino es la primera idea fuerza que ha verbalizado el nuevo líder Xi Jinping. Este afán por la generación de conceptos y discursos más o menos novedosos es una constante en la política china. Forma parte de la cosmética del sistema y ningún líder que se precie puede prescindir de estos recursos que también contribuyen a perennizar su mandato. Dicho género contrasta sin duda con la fosilización habitual de otras experiencias similares, especialmente en el entorno de la órbita soviética, y revela el ingente esfuerzo de adaptación a las diferentes coyunturas y momentos históricos, contrariando de forma muy consciente esa tendencia a la atrofia tan común en estructuras de tan largo recorrido burocrático como el Partido Comunista de China (PCCh) y que, a la postre, explica también su longevidad (en el 2021 cumplirá cien años).…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia,

Xu Zhiuong, a lawyer for the underprivileged, knew he risked his freedom by challenging the Chinese Communist Party to fulfill its vows to fight corruption and promote the rule of law.

His fight made him one of China’s best known human-rights advocates, and it has now landed him in prison.

On the evening of July 16, Mr. Xu’s wife, Cui Zheng, came home from work to find her husband, who had already been under house arrest for three months, missing. The police officers who had stood outside the door, enforcing the house arrest, were also gone. Their home had been searched: books were in disarray, computers seized, the lunch she’d prepared for her husband untouched.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia

Entre 1978 y 2012, el PBI de China creció a una tasa promedio anual de aproximadamente el 10% –pasó de $341 mil millones a $8,3 billones (a precios de 2012). Ese proceso sacó a más de 500 millones de chinos de la pobreza. Esto se debió en gran medida a una estrategia de industrialización y urbanización impulsada por las exportaciones, que abrió nuevas oportunidades en ciudades que se expandían rápidamente, donde el trabajo, el capital, la tecnología y la infraestructura se combinaron para crear capacidades de oferta orientadas a los mercados globales. Según el McKinsey Global Institute, para 2025, 29 de las 75 ciudades más dinámicas del mundo estarán en China.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia

Desde el año 2010, los círculos financieros mundiales se han obsesionado con la desaceleración económica de China. Sin embargo, mientras que el país apenas alcanzó la meta oficial de 7,5% de crecimiento anual del PIB en el segundo trimestre de este año – generando ansiedad significativa en todo el mundo – el Gobierno de China continúa aparentemente tranquilo, sin mostrar indicios acerca de que se encuentra planificando lanzar otro paquete de estímulo. ¿Realmente, tienen los líderes de China la situación bajo control?

De hecho, la postura del gobierno chino – basada en la “likonomía” del primer ministro Li Keqiang, que prioriza la reforma estructural frente a un rápido crecimiento del PIB – resultará ser la mejor opción para los intereses de China y el resto del mundo.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, ,

Indians commemorate an important official holiday on Thursday: Independence Day. Next month, the Chinese will commemorate an equally important but unofficial holiday, national humiliation day, followed on Oct. 1 by the country’s own official National Day of the People’s Republic of China.

Independence days are important events for any country. But for India and China, they hold a significance that the West would do well to understand. They remind us that these countries are not just future superpowers. They are powerful nations with traumatic pasts that define who they are and that play a vital role in how they perceive the world.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, , ,

Beijing and Manila continue their increasingly shrill propaganda war over the South China Sea with each accusing the other of violating prior agreements and provoking tensions. What is going on and what are the possible outcomes of this dispute — and their implications?

Over the past few years, the Philippines and China have engaged in a series of increasingly dangerous incidents stemming from their conflicting claims in the South China Sea. On Jan. 22, a potential watershed date in the politics of the South China Sea, the Philippines, with tacit U.S. support, filed a complaint against China with the Law of the Sea’s dispute settlement mechanism — the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea based in Hamburg, Germany.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, , ,

Rising tensions in the South China Sea have changed recent ASEAN-China relations from cooperation to potential conflict. Yet there is now agreement to begin consultations on a Code of Conduct to manage the issue.

Since his appointment, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has also visibly upgraded engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Marking the 10th anniversary of their strategic partnership, a recent High Level Forum proceeded positively with high officials and tank experts from both sides. Is there substance beneath the ceremonies? Are relations turning more positive?

This won’t be the first time to patch over difficulties. The Chinese Communist Party’s post-World War II support for communist movements in the region meant that diplomatic relations were not normalized until 1991.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia,

In May, a deputy mayor of a midsize city in central China flew down to see me in Shenzhen, where I sit on a government advisory panel for financing small and medium-sized businesses. He wanted a favor. “Can you help arrange financing for our sports center?” he asked. It’s going to be one of the largest in central China.”

It was another tale of woe about a half-finished project in desperate need of more money. I’d heard this song before.

After Lehman Brothers fell in 2008, the Chinese government panicked and unleashed an ambitious stimulus program by expanding public works projects to build roads, railroads and municipal buildings.…  Seguir leyendo »

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With more than a million people in China dying prematurely each year from breathing its dirty air, and with warming temperatures portending rising sea levels and disruptions to food production, the centrally planned Communist country is experimenting with a capitalist approach to address the problem: it is creating incentives so that the market — and not the government — will force reductions in emissions.

The United States invented this approach in the 1990s to deal with acid rain. The effort was tremendously successful in reducing sulfur dioxide emissions that were poisoning lakes and streams, contaminating soils and accelerating the decay of buildings, at a cost lower than even its advocates anticipated.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, ,

Any day now — the authorities won’t say precisely when — China will begin one of the most sensational trials in its modern political history, when Bo Xilai, the former rising star in the Politburo and Communist Party boss in the megacity of Chongqing, faces corruption charges.

Officials hope the proceedings — a highly choreographed court drama, in front of a carefully selected audience — will put an end to the party’s most embarrassing political scandal in decades. But even if the trial goes as planned, Mr. Bo could end up an unlikely hero.

Most Chinese know that the alleged bribes are but a pittance when measured against the breathtaking scale of official graft in China.…  Seguir leyendo »