Conflicto armado (Continuación)

‘Hundreds of people have died since 27 September.’ A shelled street market in Tartar, Azerbaijan. Photograph: Valery Sharifulin/TASS

MundoCáucaso, , , ,

A tragedy is unfolding on the edge of Europe in and around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh in the South Caucasus. A mostly forgotten war has restarted between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Outsiders are struggling to respond. As someone who has reported on and studied this conflict for more than 25 years on both sides, let me try to lead you through the labyrinth.

It is worth emphasising first of all the human cost. Hundreds of people have died since 27 September, when the fighting broke out, almost certainly because Azerbaijan decided to launch a surprise offensive. Each side is now using fearsome long-range weapons that it has acquired over the last decade.…  Seguir leyendo »

Trying to find refuge from bombs in a basement this week in Stepanakert, a city at the center of a territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Credit Reuters

MundoCáucaso, , , ,

Taking shelter in a hospital basement, 19-year-old George Alexanian can hear the suicide drones buzzing overhead in the city of Stepanakert.

A few days ago, he said, one of them headed toward the hospital but was struck down before it could explode. Yet being there, he told me, is better than staying home, where every strike felt like an earthquake. His sister is a doctor, working upstairs and sleeping in the hallway because the beds are all full.

“We get used to it,” he said. “But it’s hard to live not knowing if you’re safe.”

Workers hurry out of other basements for a few hours, then rush back down to shelter.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucaso, , ,

After a bitter three-decades-long standoff marked by sporadic violence and deadlocked negotiations, Azerbaijan and Armenia have returned to war over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Clashes on the front lines followed by an Azerbaijani dawn offensive on September 27 have spilled into days of fighting that have left dozens of soldiers and civilians dead on both sides. Despite international calls for restraint, the mood among both Armenians and Azerbaijanis is bellicose. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made his own hawkish statements in support of Baku. Absent urgent international action, fighting looks set to escalate further, at terrible cost.

Russia, potentially with European support, probably stands the best chance of brokering a ceasefire.…  Seguir leyendo »

A woman and children take refuge against shelling in Stepanakert, in the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan, on Oct. 1. (Karen Mirzoyan/AP)

MundoCáucaso, , ,

South of the Caucasus Mountains, between the countries of Armenia and Azerbaijan, are the contested territories of Nagorno-Karabakh. On Sept. 27, Azerbaijan launched a sustained military offense to retake territories it considers occupied by Armenians since a cease-fire agreement between the parties in 1994.

While there have been occasional military clashes, most notably in April 2016 and July of this year, the current fighting is the worst the region has seen since a devastating war killed around 30,000 and displaced more than 1 million people a quarter-century ago.

In February 2020, we conducted face-to-face public opinion surveys in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh on geopolitics in the region.…  Seguir leyendo »

A man looks inside an overturned truck in the middle of National Road 27 in Ituri province in northeastern Congo on Sept. 16. On this road, vehicles travel in convoys escorted by police and soldiers because of recurring attacks by armed militias. (Alexis Huguet/AFP/Getty Images)

MundoÁfrica, ,

Since the start of 2019, more than 1,000 civilians have been killed in and around eastern Congo’s Beni region. These atrocities — which U.N. monitors have said may be war crimes — are the latest in periodic waves of massacres in the area since late 2014.

This violence followed the start of a large-scale Congolese army offensive against the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an Islamist rebel group originally from Uganda that has been active in Congo since 1995. As the Congolese army overran rebel camps and killed and captured dozens of combatants late last year, attacks on civilians rose in nearby areas.…  Seguir leyendo »

Resilient Militancy in the Southern Philippines

MundoAsia,

On 24 August, two explosions in Jolo, a city in Sulu province in the southern Philippines, killed 15 and injured 74—a chilling case of déjà vu in a region that has suffered repeated attacks in recent years. The incident set alarm bells ringing in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) about the resurgence of violence. The explosions also reheated familiar media tropes of Islamic State’s perseverance amid the coronavirus pandemic and seemingly ceaseless lawlessness. But it’s important to move beyond this narrative to grasp the structural foundations of the turmoil Sulu finds itself in.

While some details remain murky, initial information put forward by authorities suggests that the perpetrators may be linked to Hatib Hajan Sawadjaan, a key figure in the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)—a loose collection of small networks in the Sulu archipelago.…  Seguir leyendo »

Chairman of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, Lt General Abdel Fattah al Burhan (left), South Sudan President Salva Kiir (centre) and the Sudanese Prime Minister Dr Abdalla Hamdok (right) greet people gathering during the initialling of the Sudan peace deal with the rebel groups in Juba, South Sudan. Photo by AKUOT CHOL/AFP via Getty Images.

MundoÁfrica, ,

Although there is a long road ahead to achieve sustainable peace and formidable challenges remain, the hope is Sudan can turn the page on decades of war that has left hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced, particularly in Darfur and the Two Areas (South Kordofan and Blue Nile).

The peace agreement, between Sudan’s transitional government and the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), a broad alliance of armed and other movements, and Minni Minawi’s Sudan Liberation Movement, is not yet comprehensive as it did not include two other important armed movements.

Expected to be formally signed in early October, the deal has been hailed as a ’historic achievement’ by the UN secretary-general, and the international community also commended the government of South Sudan for its positive role as mediator and urged hold-out groups to join the peace process.…  Seguir leyendo »

General of the Army Douglas MacArthur, the supreme Allied commander, and Gen. Jonathan Wainwright, who surrendered to the Japanese after Bataan and Corregidor, witness the formal Japanese surrender signatures aboard the battleship USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay on Sept. 2, 1945. (AP)

ReflexionesPensamiento, Cultura y Ciencia,

Sept. 2 marks the 75th anniversary of the formal end of World War II. There hasn’t been a “hot” war between great powers since. And since the 2011 publication of cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker’s book, “The Better Angels of Our Nature,” optimism about trends in warfare, once in short supply, have gone mainstream.

But social science research since the publication of Pinker’s book paints a much more nuanced and less optimistic picture. Here are some further thoughts about the prospect of war.

War is less frequent than it used to be

First, the good news: The use of force by one country against another has become significantly less common since about 1990.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Wart for Libyan Oil. Illustration by Greg Groesch/The Washington Times

MundoÁfrica,

At the dawn of the 20th century, America was feeling brash and bold. Having just defeated Spain in a war that ranged from Cuba to the Philippines, it was clear that we were an emerging power. But what was that going to mean?

The 19th century idea of “Manifest Destiny,” which required that, by some sort of divine right, we should rule the Western Hemisphere had faded, but — as the Philippines showed — the temptation of American colonialism was strong.

In that context, John Hay wrote a letter to a friend. Hay began his government career as private secretary to Abraham Lincoln and at the time he wrote the letter was U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, ,

To outsiders, the demilitarized zone (DMZ) dividing North and South Korea is a flashpoint, a scar, and a reminder that, 70 years after it began, the Korean War is not actually over.

But for some of us, the DMZ is also home.

Resolving tensions along the border and creating an environment where two countries can peacefully co-exist is an opportunity within our reach.

I am the Governor of the Gangwon Province -- a region cut in half by the 1953 Armistice Agreement. Our northern border marks the boundary between the two Koreas. Perhaps no other region of South Korea is more aware of the dangers of war -- or more open to possibilities for peace.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoÁfrica,

It’s a “scandal”, according to U.N. Secretary General António Guterres. Many more say it’s a mess. It’s also a critical battlefield for the future of the Arab world, according to engaged capitals.

It’s Libya.

The 2011 international military intervention in Libya was about being on the right side of history, just as the Arab Spring was supposed to bring a new and bright democratic future to the entire region. The Paris of Nicolas Sarkozy, followed by the London of David Cameron, was enthusiastically charging full speed ahead, while the Washington of Barack Obama was relunctantly “leading from behind”. And after half a year of bombing, the bizarre 42-year rule of Col.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

El conflicto de larga data en Yemen está más maduro que nunca para lograr una solución. Los distintos bandos yemeníes han quedado exhaustos por la lucha y aceptaron rápidamente el llamado en marzo de António Guterres, secretario general de las Naciones Unidas, a un alto el fuego mundial por la pandemia de la COVID-19. El mes siguiente, la coalición en Yemen liderada por los sauditas anunció un alto el fuego unilateral de dos semanas, que luego extendió.

Los bandos enfrentados ya lograron avances significativos hacia un acuerdo de alto el fuego en negociaciones coordinadas por el enviado especial para Yemen de la ONU, Martin Griffiths.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Syrian soldier films the damage to the Syrian Scientific Research Center in Barzeh, near Damascus, Syria, on April 14, 2018. The site was attacked by U.S., British and French military strikes to punish President Bashar al-Assad for suspected chemical attacks against civilians. (Hassan Ammar/AP)

MundoOriente Próximo, ,

A chemical weapons confrontation is escalating in Syria, after an international watchdog agency concluded this month that Damascus used chemical weapons, lied to investigators and violated its commitment to dismantle its chemical weapons arsenal. Syria has 90 days to respond — or face a referral to the U.N. Security Council for possible punishment.

Since 2013, the independent Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), often in coordination with experts from the United Nations, has led efforts to collect evidence on the use of toxic gas on civilian targets in Syria. Most recently, the OPCW’s Investigation and Identification Team concluded that the Syrian government was responsible for the use of chemical weapons in March 2017, and thus lied about dismantling its entire stockpile.…  Seguir leyendo »

In face-to-face surveys carried out by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and Levada Marketing Research (Moscow), we asked 2,750 respondents in southeast Ukraine and in Crimea in December 2014 and another 3,037 respondents throughout Ukraine and in Crimea in December 2019/January 2020 the question: “Have you heard about the catastrophe of the Malaysian aircraft in July 2014 in eastern Ukraine? And if so, in your view, what caused it?” Large regional differences in blame attribution are evident across Ukraine’s regions. More respondents gave “don’t know” answers in 2019 than 2014, though respondents in Crimea widely blamed Ukraine for the downed flight. Figure by authors.

Europa, , ,

Six years ago this week, a Russian-made missile shot Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 (MH17), a civilian passenger plane with 298 people on board, from the sky over war-torn Ukraine. Last week, the Dutch government, acting on behalf of the 193 Dutch nationals on the flight, announced it was taking Russia to the European Court of Human Rights. A criminal trial against four suspects involved in transporting the missile system that downed MH17 began in Amsterdam in March.

The destruction of MH17 on July 17, 2014, sparked outrage and accusations. Russia — and Russian separatists in Ukraine — continue to deny any responsibility.…  Seguir leyendo »

A man shows a piece of shrapnel after attacks carried out by the Armenian army at Dondar Kuscu village near Tovuz, Azerbaijan. Photo by Aziz Karimov/Getty Images.

MundoCáucaso, , ,

Although the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is focused on the Line of Contact around Nagorny Karabakh, a new - and significant - outbreak of violence has happened some 300 kilometres away on high ground along the de jure Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

Although not a first, violence in this area has generally been contained by the proximity of major transport and infrastructure arteries, and of civilian populations on both sides of the border. Plus, unlike in Nagorny Karabakh, the extended deterrents conferred by Armenia’s membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and bilateral agreements with Russia are also – theoretically at least – in force.…  Seguir leyendo »

La doble tragedia de Libia

MundoÁfrica,

La situación de Libia, un país rico en petróleo y segmentado tribalmente, se asemeja a la de otros países devastados por la guerra en el Gran Oriente Medio, entre ellos Afganistán, Siria y Yemen. En cada caso, una combinación de luchas internas y de intervención externa desacertada ha sostenido un conflicto que viene de largo.

Al recordar las invasiones lideradas por Estados Unidos de Afganistán (2001) e Irak (2003) en su memoria de 2014 Duty, el ex secretario de Defensa Robert Gates sostenía que Estados Unidos era bueno a la hora de derrocar un régimen, pero que no tenía ni idea de lo que debería ocupar su lugar.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa, , , ,

Hace hoy 25 años, en la ciudad bosnia de Srebrenica, se cometió la mayor masacre ocurrida en Europa desde el fin de la Segunda Guerra mundial. También el mayor encubrimiento orquestado por la Secretaría General de las Naciones Unidas, con la colaboración de los principales países miembros de su Consejo de Seguridad.

Me explico. Por aquellos días, mientras las Naciones Unidas celebraba con legítimo orgullo el desmantelamiento del abominable régimen del apartheid en Suráfrica, Lord Peter Carrington y el canciller portugués José Cutileiro, en representación de la Comunidad Europea, proponía un plan de paz para Bosnia y Herzegovina, cuyo punto central era la partición del país en tres distritos autónomos delimitados exclusivamente por razones étnicas y religiosas.…  Seguir leyendo »

A view of an explosion of a joint liaison office with South Korea in border town Kaesong, North Korea in this picture supplied by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on June 16, 2020. KCNA via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. REUTERS IS UNABLE TO INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY THIS IMAGE. NO THIRD PARTY SALES. SOUTH KOREA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN SOUTH KOREA. TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

MundoAsia,

After weeks of ratcheting up tensions on the Korean peninsula, including lodging near-daily threats against South Korea in reaction to some of its citizens sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the border, North Korea has decided to pause. On 24 June, North Korean state media reported that Kim Jong-un opted to defer plans to take certain military actions, after considering an unspecified “prevailing situation” during a virtual preliminary meeting of the Worker’s Party Central Military Commission over which he presided.

For now, one can only guess at the reasons for the sudden pause. Did reported U.S. B-52 bomber flyovers near Japan on 24 June, coupled with three U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

La perra de Sarajevo

Europa,

Todavía ignoro el porqué llegué a los Balcanes en 1993, en pleno fregado yugoslavo. Nunca he ido de héroe ni de salvamundos. Sin embargo, ahí estaba tras un vuelo en un Hércules C-130 del Ejército del Aire español que aterrizaba en Divulje, cerca de Split. Cuando me informaron de mi zona de trabajo en un mapa sobre el que se había superpuesto un plástico donde se trazaban con rotulador las diferentes líneas de movimiento de tropas, la roja del frente de combate la veía muy cerca de la que iba ser mi casa. Demasiado. Estaba en una retaguardia a donde llegaban los helicópteros medicalizados y furgones frigoríficos con cadáveres de soldados provenientes de esa delgada línea roja.…  Seguir leyendo »

Le président du Mali, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (G), donne l'accolade à Mahamadou Djery Maiga (D), vice-président et porte-parole du Conseil de transition de l'Etat de l'Azawad, le 20 juin 2015 à Bamako. AFP/Habibou Kouyate

MundoÁfrica,

Cinq ans après sa signature en juin 2015, où en est la mise en œuvre de l’Accord pour la paix et la réconciliation au Mali ?

En juin 2015, le gouvernement malien et deux coalitions de groupes armés issus du Nord du pays, la Plateforme, alliée au gouvernement, et la Coalition des mouvements de l’Azawad (CMA), fédération de mouvements entrés en rébellion contre l’Etat, signaient à Bamako un accord pour restaurer la paix et la réconciliation au Mali. Après moins d’un an de négociations souvent indirectes, le texte définitif a été largement imposé aux acteurs, sous la pression d’une équipe de médiation internationale dont l’Algérie était chef de file et qui comprenait, entre autres, la Mission des Nations unies pour la stabilisation du Mali (Minusma), la Communauté économique des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (Cedeao), l’Union africaine, l’Union européenne, ainsi que les Etats-Unis et la France, initialement inclus comme « amis de la médiation ».…  Seguir leyendo »