Conflicto social (Continuación)

'The Arab world is on fire," al-Jazeera reported last week, while throughout the region, western allies "are quickly losing their influence". The shock wave was set in motion by the dramatic uprising in Tunisia that drove out a western-backed dictator, with reverberations especially in Egypt, where demonstrators overwhelmed a dictator's brutal police.

Observers compared it to the toppling of Russian domains in 1989, but there are important differences. Crucially, no Mikhail Gorbachev exists among the great powers that support the Arab dictators. Rather, Washington and its allies keep to the well-established principle that democracy is acceptable only insofar as it conforms to strategic and economic objectives: fine in enemy territory (up to a point), but not in our backyard, please, unless properly tamed.…  Seguir leyendo »

As the wave of grass-roots unrest sweeping across the Middle East en- velops Egypt, all eyes are on the next move of embattled President Hosni Mubarak and his increasingly rickety regime. The telltale signs, however, are already becoming apparent; even as he has offered political concessions to his opposition, Egypt's aging autocrat is steering his country toward military control.

How did we get here? In retrospect, Egypt's current turmoil should not have come as a surprise. For the past three decades, the country has languished in a sort of political stasis, polarized between Mr. Mubarak's ruling National Democratic Party and its Islamist opposition, the officially outlawed but unofficially tolerated and widely influential Muslim Brotherhood.…  Seguir leyendo »

As Egyptians clash over the future of their government, Americans and Europeans have repeatedly expressed fears of the Muslim Brotherhood. “You don’t just have a government and a movement for democracy,” Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, said of Egypt on Monday. “You also have others, notably the Muslim Brotherhood, who would take this in a different direction.”

The previous day, the House speaker, John Boehner, expressed hope that Hosni Mubarak would stay on as president of Egypt while instituting reforms to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremists from grabbing power.

But here’s the real deal, at least as many Egyptians see it.…  Seguir leyendo »

Despite the media's recent focus on Egypt, events in Lebanon may well tell us more about the troubled prospects for Middle Eastern democracy. The fall of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri's government, replaced by a Hezbollah-dominated coalition, dramatically imperils Beirut's democratic Cedar Revolution.

Financed and dominated by Iran, terrorist Hezbollah has consistently refused to disarm and become a legitimate political party. Instead, it enjoys the best of both worlds, contesting elections while retaining the military ability to enforce its will against uncongenial results. History will rightly blame the West for the tragedy of the takeover in Beirut, because of its unwillingness to stand against Hezbollah and its Iranian puppet masters.…  Seguir leyendo »

Las revueltas populares que comenzaron con el gesto desesperado de Mohamed Buazizi, el humilde vendedor de fruta tunecino que se inmoló en protesta por la brutalidad de la policía, han logrado en breves semanas lo que las bombas y los atentados de los yihadistas no consiguieron en largos años de barbarie: un cambio radical en el panorama político árabe, con el dictador de Túnez derribado, el de Egipto convertido en un cadáver político y unas apresuradas reformas democráticas emprendidas por Gobiernos que, hasta la víspera, se declaraban cínicamente comprometidos en transiciones que, sin embargo, no avanzaban jamás en el reconocimiento de las libertades.…  Seguir leyendo »

En las revueltas de Túnez y Egipto hay algo que no puede por menos de llamarnos poderosamente la atención, y es la patente ausencia del fundamentalismo islámico: siguiendo la más pura tradición democrática laica, la gente se ha limitado a levantarse contra un régimen opresivo y corrupto, y contra su propia pobreza, para exigir libertad y esperanza económica. El cínico postulado liberal de cuño occidental, según el cual en los países árabes las concepciones realmente democráticas únicamente están presentes en las élites más abiertas, mientras que a la gran mayoría de la población solo la puede movilizar el fundamentalismo religioso o el nacionalismo, ha quedado desmentido.…  Seguir leyendo »

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's promise on Tuesday that he will not stand for reelection in September was too little, too late. The Egyptian regime is fatally wounded, with protesters demanding nothing less than a complete break with the past. Mubarak may not relinquish power tomorrow, but his days are numbered. And the government that replaces him is likely to include the Muslim Brotherhood, the world's oldest Islamist movement as well as one of its most feared.

In the coming days, the prospect of the Brotherhood's rise is likely to be one of the big stories out of Egypt. Alarm about this prospect is already being sounded in the West.…  Seguir leyendo »

The revolt that has erupted across Egypt is in many ways historic and should take the nation into a hopeful future. What’s unexpected, even by the Egyptians themselves, is that this intifada is led by youth, the so-called Facebook children, with no religious or ideological agenda other than a better future for Egypt and its people.

In this difficult time, the military has earned the expected respect of the masses by acting professionally to maintain safety and stability as the guardian of the Egyptian people. By reclaiming the future while maintaining stability, these two forces of the youth and the military offer great hope for an orderly transition to a new Egypt.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israelis want to rejoice over the outbreak of protests in Egypt’s city squares. They want to believe that this is the Arab world’s 1989 moment. Perhaps, they say, the poisonous reflex of blaming the Jewish state for the Middle East’s ills will be replaced by an honest self-assessment.

But few Israelis really believe in that hopeful outcome. Instead, the grim assumption is that it is just a matter of time before the only real opposition group in Egypt, the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, takes power. Israelis fear that Egypt will go the way of Iran or Turkey, with Islamists gaining control through violence or gradual co-optation.…  Seguir leyendo »

Las protestas en Túnez que acabaron con el régimen de Ben Ali en apenas cuatro semanas y las de Egipto desde el 25 de enero, pueden considerarse la cuarta oleada democrática internacional en medio siglo y la segunda oleada de liberación en el mundo árabe.

Las tres internacionales anteriores trajeron la democracia al sur de Europa, a Latinoamérica, a Europa central y oriental, y a partes importantes de Asia y África. La primera y, por ahora, la única árabe acabó con el control colonial a mediados del siglo XX, pero fue secuestrada desde el primer día por nacionalistas que impusieron sistemas tan represivos, unos con apoyo de Occidente y otros con apoyo del bloque soviético, como aquellos a los que sustituyeron.…  Seguir leyendo »

La súbita erupción de la revuelta social de Túnez y Egipto, una movilización popular encabezada por jóvenes -por cierto, de ambos sexos-, ha girado el foco de la atención internacional hacia estos dos países, percibidos como heraldos de posibles cambios modernizadores en el mundo árabe.

Lo que está ocurriendo puede interpretarse como síntoma y a la vez como consecuencia de procesos sociales protagonizados por los grupos de población joven ampliamente mayoritarios en todo el norte de África y Oriente Próximo (región MENA, siglas en inglés), que son el resultado acumulativo de una larga y profunda transición demográfica, iniciada hace tres o cuatro décadas, mediante sucesivos descensos de la mortalidad infantil y la fecundidad, con altos crecimientos de la población en los periodos intermedios, en la cual Túnez ha ocupado un lugar de avanzada.…  Seguir leyendo »

Fue en 1991. Argelia celebró la primera vuelta de unas elecciones razonablemente democráticas. No habían conocido los argelinos nada parecido desde los tiempos de la independencia, en 1962, cuando el Frente de Liberación Nacional se hizo con el poder tras la sangrienta rebelión contra Francia. Pero en las urnas se impusieron los islamistas y la segunda vuelta electoral nunca llegó a celebrarse. El ejército, y toda su cohorte de ineficacia y de corrupción, controló violentamente las secuelas de la frustrada experiencia electoral, desencadenándose una brutal contienda civil en la que militares e islamistas rivalizaron en barbarie. La guerra, de la que quedan no pocas secuelas, había dejado a principios del siglo XXI cerca de 200.000 muertos.…  Seguir leyendo »

The demands for change sweeping across the Arab world are the manifestation of unrest that has festered for years. The status quo is unsustainable. Arab regimes have a choice: They can either lead a reform process from above or watch it take place in the streets below.

So far, Arab leaders' reactions to recent events have been thoroughly disappointing. President Mubarak agreed to step down following the next election, but this is too little too late. And in Jordan it is not clear yet if the change in prime ministers will accelerate reforms or not. There is a strong inclination to look at the protesters' wants in purely economic terms - that economic conditions sparked the protests, so offer quick fixes by raising salaries and reducing prices of everyday goods.…  Seguir leyendo »

«L’Egypte est à la veille d’une révolution», affirme une vieille plaisanterie. «Et ça fait 5000 ans que ça dure.» Voilà longtemps que les Egyptiens n’avaient plus aucune illusion sur leur régime. Personne ne se gênait pour critiquer en privé le président Moubarak, que beaucoup appellent «l’âne». Sa supposée bêtise était l’objet de bien des blagues. Lorsqu’un chauffeur de taxi traitait «ceux qui nous gouvernent» de «chiens» (insulte bien plus grave en arabe qu’en français), les passagers ne s’étonnaient pas.

Pas besoin de chercher très loin les raisons de leur colère. Le chômage et le sous-emploi sont omniprésents. L’enseignement public est si médiocre que seuls ceux qui peuvent s’offrir une éducation privée ou disposent de relations bien placées peuvent rêver d’un emploi bien payé.…  Seguir leyendo »

Deux orientations caractérisent la couverture médiatique de la "révolution du jasmin". D'une part les médias occidentaux reprenant systématiquement le thème lancinant du péril islamiste ; d'autre part les chaînes arabes, Al-Jazeera en premier lieu, avec leur insistance, frisant le délit de faciès, à voir "les visages connus" disparaître de la scène politique tunisienne.

Précisons, pour éviter les amalgames, que les islamistes tunisiens sont contre la polygamie, pour l'avortement et n'arrivent pas à s'aligner sur la position de l'islam officiel (Al Azhar) qui claironne que s'immoler par le feu est un acte impie : opportunisme politique et tentative de récupération de la Révolution obligent.…  Seguir leyendo »

Half a century ago, I was part of a human flood surging through the streets of Cairo. It was March 1954, and we had poured out of the university gates intending to cross the bridge of Qasr el Nil and meet up with other protesters for a massive demonstration outside the official presidential palace in Abdin Square.

The Egyptian people had recently emerged from the rule of King Farouk, who had been ousted in a military coup led by Gamal Abdel Nasser in 1952. The coup was initially met with support and hope, but that quickly dissipated as the Egyptian people watched the new leadership veer toward repression.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Middle East’s latest unrest has revived once again a tired debate about the power of social media.

Recent headlines gush about the arrival of the “Facebook Revolution” or “Twitter Diplomacy.” Critics like Evgeny Morozov respond by noting that the influence of new media has been exaggerated by a press enthralled with “techno-utopianism.” Social media enables fast coordination, critics say, not the narrative or resolve necessary to sustain a movement; flashmobs do not a political organization make.

But to state the obvious — that Facebook cannot replace good old-fashioned activism — is not to say much about what Facebook actually does in a place like Egypt.…  Seguir leyendo »

Even if the protests shaking Egypt subside in the coming days, the chaos of the last week has forever changed the relationship between the Egyptian people and their government. The anger and aspirations propelling a diverse range of citizens into the streets will not disappear without sweeping changes in the social compact between the people and the government — and these events also call for changes in the relationship between the United States and a stalwart Arab ally.

President Hosni Mubarak must accept that the stability of his country hinges on his willingness to step aside gracefully to make way for a new political structure.…  Seguir leyendo »

Tema: El régimen tunecino había hecho hincapié en el liberalismo económico para ocultar el liberalismo político, pero la revuelta popular ha puesto de manifiesto el fracaso de su empeño.

Resumen: Nadie se esperaba que, en apenas unos días, Sidi Buzid se convirtiera en la capital árabe de la protesta popular y la inmolación en modus operandi de una juventud desesperada. Aún es pronto para calibrar las implicaciones del alzamiento tunecino, pero se puede decir de entrada que ya nada es como antes: una población decidida se ha impuesto a un presidente autoritario. Se trata de un precedente histórico para una región en la que los cambios se hacen desde arriba.…  Seguir leyendo »

After you dig down through the swirl of policy consequences, the geopolitical strategies, the impact on regional allies, and the history of support that the Mubarak regime has garnered from America, you end up with the Arab kids. How will they be affected? What will their politics be as a result? They may become a Generation of 2011, profoundly marked by this year's experiences, aspirations, achievements and frustrations.

Five years of teaching undergrads in Doha, Qatar, has given me some appreciation for the conflicts of this generation and the deep ambivalence these produce. My students are overwhelmingly Muslim, mostly Arab, though they come from countries ranging from Bosnia to Bangladesh.…  Seguir leyendo »