Conflicto territorial

Un soldado ruso en Balaclava (Crimea) en 2014. Reuters

Hace ahora diez años, en abril de 2014, la guerra ruso-ucraniana, que había comenzado con la ocupación ilegal de Crimea por parte de Rusia, el 20 de febrero de 2014, se convirtió en un gran conflicto armado.

Muchos de los analistas y comentaristas que hoy simpatizan con Ucrania y condenan la invasión a gran escala de Rusia del 24 de febrero de 2022 siguen siendo ambivalentes sobre su prehistoria. Ya sea por la propaganda rusa, por prejuicios teóricos, por simple ingenuidad o por otras razones, numerosos observadores extranjeros siguen haciendo una marcada distinción entre los combates en Ucrania antes y después de esa fecha.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators meeting via videoconference in March 2022. Photo posted to Telegram on March 14, 2022 by Vladimir Medinsky / Illustration by Foreign Affairs

In the early hours of February 24, 2022, the Russian air force struck targets across Ukraine. At the same time, Moscow’s infantry and armor poured into the country from the north, east, and south. In the days that followed, the Russians attempted to encircle Kyiv.

These were the first days and weeks of an invasion that could well have resulted in Ukraine’s defeat and subjugation by Russia. In retrospect, it seems almost miraculous that it did not.

What happened on the battlefield is relatively well understood. What is less understood is the simultaneous intensive diplomacy involving Moscow, Kyiv, and a host of other actors, which could have resulted in a settlement just weeks after the war began.…  Seguir leyendo »

In Scranton, Pa., 155-millimeter artillery shells are being manufactured. Brendan McDermid/Reuters

President Biden wants the world to believe that the biggest obstacle facing Ukraine is Republicans and our lack of commitment to the global community. This is wrong.

Ukraine’s challenge is not the G.O.P.; it’s math. Ukraine needs more soldiers than it can field, even with draconian conscription policies. And it needs more matériel than the United States can provide. This reality must inform any future Ukraine policy, from further congressional aid to the diplomatic course set by the president.

The Biden administration has applied increasing pressure on Republicans to pass a supplemental aid package of more than $60 billion to Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

The war between Russia and Ukraine has been catastrophic for both countries. With neither side enjoying an overwhelming advantage and their political positions completely at odds, the fighting is unlikely to end soon. One thing is clear, though: the conflict is a post-cold-war watershed that will have a profound, lasting global impact.

Four main factors will influence the course of the war. The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary. The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.

The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems.…  Seguir leyendo »

El canciller alemán, Olaf Scholz, durante una visita oficial a Moscú en 2022.EFE

Las disputas más trascendentales en la política suelen ser las que tienen lugar dentro de los partidos políticos, no entre ellos. En Alemania, estas rupturas internas son muy poco frecuentes. La última tuvo lugar en 1959, cuando el Partido Socialdemócrata de Alemania (SPD, por sus siglas en alemán) rompió con el marxismo y se convirtió en uno de los partidos de centroizquierda más populares de Europa. El SPD podría estar a punto de sufrir otro cambio de este tipo, pero esta vez las fuerzas de resistencia son más formidables.

Un grupo de eminentes historiadores alemanes, todos ellos miembros del SPD, ha escrito una carta abierta para criticar la negativa del partido a distanciarse de Vladímir Putin y por no apoyar a Ucrania.…  Seguir leyendo »

Una escena de '20 días en Mariúpol'.

Que la población civil en democracia no comprenda cómo se produce el periodismo y para qué sirve es preocupante. Pero más preocupante aún es que alguien que dice ser periodista tampoco comprenda que el oscarizado documental 20 días en Mariúpol es periodismo del bueno y no una ficción en la que pondría o quitaría esto o lo otro para que quedara más cuqui. Que les pongan o les quiten figuritas a los pesebres sobre los que escriben es a lo que se dedican estos bien pagados.

Descubrí la columnita de marras a la que aludo porque varios compañeros se mesaban los cabellos en redes, aquí y aquí.…  Seguir leyendo »

A group of military volunteers called Driving Ukraine lights flares to signal the arrival of aid at the Ukrainian border. Dom Marker

Since Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, a rare consensus has formed in Washington around this conviction: America must provide military support to Ukraine’s resistance. Three administrations and large majorities of both parties in Congress have consistently held that President Vladimir Putin’s aggression cannot be tolerated. When has such deep solidarity last occurred on any difficult subject?

Now members of Congress are arguing that we must turn away from spending more money to help Ukraine, choosing instead to focus on our own needs, pursuing our own interests. This is a false choice.

The choices facing America are always based on the same foundation: what best serves our nation.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Ukrainian serviceman drives an armoured personnel carrier towards the town of Chasiv Yar, in the Donetsk region, on March 30. Roman Pilipey/AFP/Getty Images

In this appeal to Congress, more than 35 artists, activists, scholars and others call for funding for Ukraine. The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the signatories.

Together we call upon Congress to do the right thing.

Ukrainians are fighting for their existence. On territory that Russia occupies, it tortures Ukrainian citizens, kidnaps Ukrainian children and murders Ukrainian leaders. On territory Russia can reach with its weapons, it strikes civilians and rescue workers. Russian missiles, drones and bombs destroy churches and monuments to the Holocaust. Russian occupation threatens Ukraine’s Muslims, the Crimean Tatars.

Russian leaders say openly that their goal is the destruction of the Ukrainian state and the elimination of Ukrainians as a people.…  Seguir leyendo »

Everyone Wants to Seize Russia’s Money. It’s a Terrible Idea.

The Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, has brought a glimmer of hope to supporters of the Ukrainian war effort. He suggested to Fox News on March 31 that he would try to rally his divided party behind the so-called REPO Act. That piece of legislation would allow President Biden, working with European allies, to seize Russian currency reserves frozen in the West and use them to aid Ukraine.

Grabbing these reserves would be politically convenient. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States and its allies have thrown more than a quarter-trillion dollars into the war, to little ultimate effect.…  Seguir leyendo »

Walter Duranty fue jefe de la oficina del New York Times en Moscú de 1922 a 1936. Hoy en día se le recuerda por haber encubierto en sus artículos la hambruna artificial que causó casi cuatro millones de muertos en la Ucrania Soviética. "Las condiciones son malas, pero no hay hambruna", escribió en una época en la que los periodistas internacionales apenas podían salir de Moscú.

Hoy en día, Rusia ha vuelto a llevar desolación y muerte a Ucrania. Sus crímenes, sin embargo, quedan a la vista de todos, como así reportan numerosas organizaciones internacionales. Por ende, la manera de encubrir estos crímenes ha evolucionado y se ha adaptado a los tiempos.…  Seguir leyendo »

Cómo evitar una guerra por Taiwán

¿Es posible que China ataque a Taiwán en 2027? Eso creía en 2021 el jefe saliente del Comando de EE. UU. del Indo-Pacífico, Philip Davidson, quien recientemente insistió con ese análisis; pero no está escrito que Estados Unidos y China estén destinados a una guerra por esa isla. Aunque el peligro es real, no se trata de un resultado inevitable.

China considera que Taiwán es una provincia renegada, vestigio de la guerra civil de la década de 1940, y aunque las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y China se normalizaron en la década de 1970, Taiwán sigue siendo motivo de discusión... sin embargo, esas potencias hallaron una fórmula diplomática para ocultar el desacuerdo: desde ambos lados del estrecho de Taiwán los chinos acordaron que existe «una sola China».…  Seguir leyendo »

A Ukrainian soldier launches a reconnaissance drone near the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk region in March. (Oleksandr Ratushniak/Reuters)

On the computer screen, you can see the thicket of Russian jammers and antiaircraft missiles that obstructs a simulated Ukrainian drone attack from “Launch Site Alpha”, near Kherson, to “Target Site Oscar” in Russian-occupied Crimea.

The menacing images I watched here were sketched using signals captured by sensors from land, sea, air and space. The Russian air-defense systems appeared as towering cylinders, miles wide and thousands of feet high. The electronic warfare jammers look like jagged fences of cross-hatched lines. The system also captured weather, wind speed and ground obstacles like tall buildings.

Ukrainian drone operators can instantly map a safe route to the target using this system, which was developed for them by the U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron signing a bilateral security agreement, Paris, February 2024. Thibault Camus / Reuters

Speaking in Prague in early March, Emmanuel Macron warned Europeans that now was not the time to be “cowardly”. This comment came just a week after a conference on Ukraine in Paris, during which the French president told a reporter that the prospect of sending Western troops to Ukraine should not be “excluded”. Europeans, he said, will “do everything that we must so that Russia does not win”. The remarks proved controversial and irritated several allies. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pushed back, distancing himself from Macron’s pronouncements. Leaders in Greece, Spain, Sweden, and the United States also clarified that sending troops to Ukraine was not on the table.…  Seguir leyendo »

Incursiones de Ucrania fuera de su territorio

Es notorio que, tras la agresión armada de Rusia en febrero de 2022, la respuesta militar de Ucrania tiene su fundamento en la legítima defensa. Aquella agresión inicial rusa ha sido continuada y seguida de invasión, ocupación parcial y, además, posterior anexión ilegal de los territorios ocupados (desde 2014 y otros nuevos).

La legítima defensa frente al agresor es un derecho inherente de todo Estado, si bien solo puede ejercerse con un conjunto de limites objetivos y procedimentales (art. 51 de la Carta de la ONU). Por tanto, el Estado que se defiende contra el agresor no tiene un derecho ilimitado a usar la fuerza armada.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ukrainian soldiers preparing rockets in Donetsk region, Ukraine, March 2024. Sofiia Gatilova / Reuters

After more than two years of fighting, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has bogged down into a bloody impasse. Both countries continue to spend substantial resources to gain territory, but their advances are rare and small. Sometimes they are quickly reversed. Neither side has the resources to achieve a decisive victory on the battlefield. Both are incurring heavy casualties every day.

Typically, academics describe such situations as “mutually hurting stalemates”, and they often foster the conditions that cause parties to negotiate. If the warring actors lack the means to alter the trajectory of fighting, they often rethink how much they can accomplish by force.…  Seguir leyendo »

Kyiv's destroyed Academy of Decorative and Applied Arts and Design, after it was struck by the fragments of a hypersonic missile on March 25. Libkos/Getty Images

Late morning Monday, from occupied Crimea, the Russians launched two hypersonic ballistic missiles at Kyiv. Our friends heard the explosion and the air raid sirens simultaneously — which is unusual. Hypersonic missiles are faster than the speed of sound.

Fragments hit the Academy of Decorative and Applied Arts and Design, where the students, with no time to get to the shelter, lay down on the ground.

Kyiv is dependent on air defense. In turn, air defense is dependent on American aid, and that aid is currently hostage to House Speaker Mike Johnson, who is at the moment among Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most powerful allies.…  Seguir leyendo »

Muchos políticos, diplomáticos y otros comentaristas internacionales datan, inadvertida o deliberadamente, el inicio de la actual guerra rusoucraniana en febrero de 2022, en lugar de febrero de 2014. Tres narrativas (formadas por la desinformación mundial de Moscú sobre su anexión ilegal de Crimea y su intervención encubierta en Dombás) explican este malentendido que lleva ya diez años autoperpetuándose.

Una primera narración afirma que la secesión de Crimea de Ucrania, así como el estallido de los combates en Dombás poco después, estuvieron determinados por la dinámica local y no por la injerencia extranjera.

Una segunda, que la toma de Crimea por Rusia fue un traspaso pacífico y no un acto violento.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Ukrainian flag alongside the NATO emblem, Kyiv, July 2023. Valentyn Ogirenko / Reuters

Ukraine is bleeding. Without new U.S. military assistance, Ukrainian ground forces may not be able to hold the line against a relentless Russian military. The U.S. House of Representatives must vote now to pass the emergency spending package that the Senate overwhelmingly approved last month. The most urgent priority is to appropriate funds to resupply Kyiv with artillery shells, air defense missiles, deep-strike rockets, and other critical military needs.

But even once Ukraine receives this much-needed support, a fundamental question remains: how to help Ukraine secure its future. That is a question NATO leaders will need to answer when they meet this July in Washington for their 75th anniversary summit.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ukrainian soldiers monitoring the sky near Bakhmut, March 2024. Serhii Nuzhnenko / Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

In early 2022, much of the world applauded the heroic Ukrainian troops who held back Russian forces outside the gates of Kharkiv and Kyiv. “This is Ukraine’s finest hour, that will be remembered and recounted for generations to come”, declared then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. “Its soldiers have demonstrated immense bravery”, said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In a speech from Warsaw, U.S. President Joe Biden proclaimed that Russian forces “met their match with brave and stiff Ukrainian resistance”.

Two years later, Ukrainian soldiers are again resisting massive Russian military assaults, this time in Donetsk, Luhansk, and elsewhere. But now there are far fewer cheers.…  Seguir leyendo »

Expulsado de Putinistán

Exactamente a las 5.32 de la mañana del 24 de febrero de 2022, hora local, el reportero Xavier Colás enviaba desde la habitación de su hotel en Kiev un whatsapp a la subdirectora de EL MUNDO Silvia Román: «Están atacando». Dos horas después, cuando por fin hablaron, él se asomó a la plaza Maidán: «Veo por la ventana cómo algunos padres llevan a sus hijos al colegio, como para hacerles creer que nada pasa, y a otros salir derrapando con el coche para huir del país».

En el epílogo de Putinistán, la disección más lúcida sobre el régimen de Vladimir Putin que se ha escrito en castellano, el corresponsal sitúa en ese preciso instante un punto de inflexión histórico: el final de la era post-wall (después de la caída del Muro), que el historiador Timothy Garton Ash le explica como «caracterizada por la confianza en que no habría guerra y que simplemente seguiríamos dialogando».…  Seguir leyendo »