Conflicto territorial (Continuación)

Ucrania, Rusia, Conflicto armado, Conflicto territorial,

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Let’s not play down what has happened this week. The leader of the world’s largest nuclear power publicly threatened to use nuclear weapons. In an address in Moscow on Wednesday, Vladimir Putin declared that Russia would use “all weapon systems available to us” to defend the country. He emphasized, “This is not a bluff”.

It might be. Putin’s threat is at odds with traditional Soviet military doctrine, which once ruled out “first use”. Under his leadership, the Russian military now contemplates scenarios in which it could use nuclear weapons. But Putin knows that the West has powerful nuclear weapons of its own; and he knows that the doctrine of “mutually assured destruction” has prevented any power from deploying them since 1945.…  Seguir leyendo »

Destroyed Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers, Izium, Ukraine, September 2022. Gleb Garanich / Reuters

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In his September 21 speech about the steps he was taking to win his war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin had to explain why he had not already won. The culprit was NATO, which he faulted for the huge support it has given to Kyiv. When he said “we will certainly use all the means at our disposal” if Russia’s territorial integrity is violated, some saw a link with the earlier part of his speech when he referred to the proposed referendums in occupied territories. But that was left vague. It is hard to establish a redline in areas where the situation on the ground is so fluid.…  Seguir leyendo »

Protests in Moscow against partial mobilization announced by Vladimir Putin, who said his promise to use all military means in Ukraine was 'no bluff' and hinted Moscow was prepared to use nuclear weapons. Photo by ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP via Getty Images.

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Until now, Russian nuclear doctrine consistently stated Russia would only use nuclear weapons first should the existence of the state be threatened, rather than its ‘territorial integrity’.

However, the planned referenda which aim to annex parts of Ukraine would mean any Ukrainian attempts to reclaim that territory could then be framed as a threat to Russia’s territorial integrity.

The impact of nuclear weapons use would be grave and would require a strong response – and therefore could escalate quickly to become a large-scale regional war and possibly all-out nuclear war.

Nuclear war cannot be won

The Reagan-Gorbachev statement that ‘nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought’ has been restated by all five nuclear weapon states twice, once in January 2022 weeks before the invasion of Ukraine began, and again in early August 2022 at the start of the NPT Review Conference.…  Seguir leyendo »

Putin Is in Trouble

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In the wake of a stunning counteroffensive in which Ukrainian forces reclaimed over 1,000 miles of territory, Russia is uneasy.

The country’s political talk shows, usually so deferential, have given the floor to more critical voices. Opponents of the war have weighed in — about 40 officials from municipal councils signed a petition requesting the president’s resignation — and previously loyal figures have begun to mutter about the regime’s failings. In a sign of general discontent, Alla Pugacheva, Russia’s most famous 20th-century pop star, has come out against the war. Six months of consensus has started to crack.

That consensus wasn’t as cast-iron as it might have seemed.…  Seguir leyendo »

El presidente de Ucrania, Volodímir Zelenski, durante una visita la ciudad liberada de Izium, en la región de Járkov, el 14 de septiembre de 2022. Presidencia de Ucrania

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El péndulo de la guerra parece haber cambiado de dirección con la ofensiva ucraniana de septiembre sobre el sector de Jarkov. El gobierno de Kiev ha conseguido recuperar una parte del territorio perdido al comienzo de la guerra. Aunque a un ritmo menor, la ofensiva continúa y cuestiona la firmeza del control ruso sobre los territorios del Donbás que arrebató a Ucrania en 2014.

El cambio de postura de Ucrania aviva las expectativas de una victoria final y completa sobre Rusia, que podría verse desalojada de los territorios que ocupa desde 2014. ¿Está Ucrania ganando la guerra? La respuesta a esta pregunta depende, en gran medida, de lo que signifique para Ucrania “ganar la guerra”, aunque considerar que Rusia está en vías de ser derrotada –algo posible– es hoy tan inexacto como prematuro.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Hasta el discurso de Vladímir Putin de este miércoles, con el que el líder ruso anunció la movilización de decenas de cientos de miles de reservistas, las capitales de la Alianza Atlántica parecían disfrutar de una ola de optimismo sin precedentes en los pasados meses de guerra en Ucrania.

Los recientes éxitos militares de Kiev habían alimentado las expectativas de que el conflicto concluyera antes de lo esperado y de que se produjese el regreso a la tan ansiada normalidad.

El guion que alimentaba estas esperanzas partía del supuesto de que Ucrania podía encadenar una serie de éxitos militares que expulsaran a Moscú de su territorio, y terminaba con la previsión de que este fracaso bélico desembocase en la caída de Putin y su reemplazo por un líder dispuesto a aceptar una Ucrania prooccidental.…  Seguir leyendo »

Llega el invierno y Putin está fracasando

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Cuando el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, lanzó su guerra de agresión contra Ucrania el 24 de febrero, evidentemente esperaba una victoria rápida y sencilla. Al haber dado a entender en sus discursos que Ucrania era una ficción endeble de un país, suponía que estaba llamada al colapso, a pesar de que comprometió casi el 85% del ejército en actividad de Rusia para lo que dio en llamar una “operación especial”.

Con el repentino éxito de la contraofensiva de las fuerzas armadas ucranianas en las últimas semanas, la guerra ha entrado en una nueva fase.

Obviamente, Putin se equivocó drásticamente en su percepción del país que estaba invadiendo.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Russian President Vladimir Putin is running out of time and good options in his failing invasion of Ukraine. So, now he’s rushing to implement bad ones — starting with a move toward quick annexation of regions in Ukraine where his occupation army is facing mounting pressure.

To bolster his sagging fortunes, Putin also announced Wednesday morning a partial mobilization of the Russian military. He warned: “We of course will use all the means at our disposal. This is not a bluff”. But it will take months to train these forces, and they will further complicate the Russian army’s already chaotic command-and-control system.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s truculent speech on Wednesday was his latest gambit to change the course of a conflict that is trending inevitably toward his country’s defeat. He announced a limited military mobilization and the imminent annexation of four partially occupied Ukrainian provinces (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk) through sham referendums. To cap it all off, he issued veiled nuclear threats: “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff”.

This was a version of the address Putin was widely expected to deliver on May 9, the Russian holiday commemorating victory in World War II, minus a declaration of war or general mobilization.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin watching a military parade in Moscow, May 2022. Mikhail Metzel / Sputnik via Reuters

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has lost touch with reality. He has declared a partial mobilization to reverse his defeats in Ukraine and, signaling his desperation, ratcheted up Russia’s nuclear saber rattling. Each day the war drags on, his country grows more isolated from the rest of the world. Increasingly, Russia depends on China to keep its economy from collapsing under the weight of sanctions, even as Chinese leaders express doubts about the invasion. Russia’s failure to take Kyiv, and its recent reversals in the Kharkiv region in eastern Ukraine, have led even pro-Putin commentators to question his decisions. Against this backdrop, it makes sense that many Russians are starting to ask how much longer Putin can stay in power and pursue his barbarous war.…  Seguir leyendo »

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, September 2022. Sputnik Photo Agency / Reuters

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India’s initial reluctance to condemn Russia for its war against Ukraine has been the subject of much debate and criticism in the West. In mid-March, Jen Psaki, then the White House press secretary, urged India to reflect on “where you want to stand when history books are written at this moment in time”. Numerous world leaders and diplomats have expressed impatience with India for effectively abetting a Russian agenda by remaining on the side-lines.

Some analysts and former policymakers in strategic circles in New Delhi insist that such a reproach is unfair and fails to appreciate India’s nuanced position on the war.…  Seguir leyendo »

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As President Biden and other world leaders gather in New York this week to address the U.N. General Assembly, there’s an unusual twist: The United Nations, so often derided as a useless forum for debate rather than action, is working aggressively to contain the damage from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This is a diplomatic version of “man bites dog”. “I would have predicted that the U.N. would act as ineffectively as the League of Nations in the 1930s, but the opposite has happened”, says Jeffrey Feltman, a former State Department official who served as the United Nations’ under-secretary-general for political affairs.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a summit on the Syrian civil war in Istanbul on Oct. 27, 2018. OZAN KOSE/AFP via Getty Images

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Ukraine’s successful counterattack means that for the first time ever in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 22 years in power, he has to deal with elites who disagree with him—on strategic decisions over Russia’s war in Ukraine and how the war may end. Having launched the war not just without any internal discussions, but without even informing key players, Putin has taken huge risks politically. If the war were going well, that gamble would have paid off, but today, as Ukraine is counterattacking and Russia is retreating, questions about Putin’s decisions are mounting. There are fears that Russia may lose outright. If the president fails to convince the elites that he remains a strong leader with a clear understanding of where he is taking the country, uncertainty may become a significant political risk to Putin’s regime.…  Seguir leyendo »

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He vivido guerras en directo por esos mundos desde Vietnam, Paquistán-Bangladés, el Sinaí… Las guerras de mi juventud. En todas era reconocible el arma de la mentira. La principal batalla era la de la propaganda. La derrota de Estados Unidos en Vietnam comenzó en las calles de Washington, de Nueva York o de San Francisco cuando multitudinarias manifestaciones clamaban una pregunta: ¿por qué están muriendo allí nuestros chicos? También se lo preguntaban los combatientes. Muchos tenían sus calendarios cortados en el día que les tocaba regresar a casa. Ese espíritu derrotista suponía crispación, desvío y al final enajenación, y es probable que de ese cóctel emocional emanasen tragedias como la matanza de cientos de civiles –hombres, mujeres y niños– en My Lai.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ukrainian soldiers ride a tank in Novoselivka on Sept. 17. (Juan Barreto/AFP/Getty Images)

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Russian dictator Vladimir Putin keeps going from bad to worse in his invasion of Ukraine. From his perspective, the last week has been an unmitigated catastrophe.

Ukraine’s stunning, surprisingly successful Kharkiv offensive has continued rolling on, having already liberated an estimated 3,500 square miles from Russian rule — i.e., more than Delaware and Rhode Island combined. Ukrainian troops are now nearing Luhansk province, which they had lost in July. That makes it increasingly unlikely that Putin will ever achieve even his scaled-down objective of conquering the Donbas region (Luhansk is one of two provinces that make up Donbas).

The Russian forces keep trying and, so far failing, to reestablish a new defensive line.…  Seguir leyendo »

Zares y atamanes

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Vale la pena recordar estas palabras cuando vuelve a llamar a nuestra puerta, también en Polonia, la 'historia desencadenada'. Así es cómo definió un escritor polaco (Gustaw Herling-Grudziński), la época de los dictadores del siglo XX, Hitler y Stalin.

Vladimir Putin, heredero mental de esos dos bandidos, invadió Ucrania con el objetivo de destruirla como estado soberano. Probablemente esperaba poder repetir la operación de anexión de Crimea, sin un solo disparo, una rápida conquista que incrementó enormemente su popularidad entre los sectores nacionalistas de la opinión pública rusa. Sin embargo, Ucrania ha respondido con una resistencia heroica y meditada, reviviendo el espíritu de su Revolución de la Dignidad de hace ocho años.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Decía el politólogo norteamericano Francis Fukuyama, el pasado 5 de septiembre en la Fundación Rafael del Pino, que el liberalismo y la democracia están hoy de capa caída, y que los últimos años muchos países han evolucionado hacia modelos autoritarios. La India está considerada como la mayor democracia en el mundo, 815 millones de electores en 2014, y desde ese año dirigida por Narendra Modi, líder absoluto del partido nacionalista BJP, que ha puesto orden en casa, pero con un régimen de rasgos populistas y de hinduismo excluyente.

Como modesto observador de la política india, (viví en este país de 2006 a 2009), creo que subsisten dos «heridas» abiertas que están en el origen del Estado indio: el pasado colonial (aunque el Raj británico sólo duró en realidad entre 1854 y 1947), y la sangrienta división del país («The Great Divide») con ocasión de la independencia, propiciada por la negativa de Jinnah y su Liga Musulmana de formar parte de una India unida independiente.…  Seguir leyendo »

¿Quién está ganando la guerra en Ucrania?

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Pese a la impresionante contraofensiva reciente de Ucrania en la región de Járkov, la guerra con Rusia ha caído en un atasco prolongado. Aun así, hay un vencedor claro: la industria armamentística estadounidense.

Algunos ven a las empresas del sector como el «arsenal de la democracia», como denominó el presidente Franklin Delano Roosevelt al esfuerzo industrial estadounidense en apoyo de los Aliados durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Y es innegable el papel que han tenido en la provisión de apoyo a Ucrania para que pudiera repeler la ocupación rusa. Pero su afán de lucro y su influencia sobre la política exterior estadounidense plantean la amenaza de que el arsenal termine volviéndose contra la democracia misma.…  Seguir leyendo »

Putin under pressure: what is Russia’s next move?

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In late August, occupation authorities in the eastern Ukrainian town of Kupyansk held celebrations to mark Russian Flag Day.

A few dozen people — including both pro-Kremlin activists and locals who had stayed in the town after it was captured by Russian forces six months ago — unfurled an enormous 60mx40m Russian tricolour on the main square, then waved flags and danced to a medley of patriotic tunes.

Just a few weeks later, the Russian occupying forces were gone after a surprise Ukrainian attack forced them to surrender more than 3,000 sq km of territory, leaving tanks, armoured vehicles and supplies.…  Seguir leyendo »

A mother and son in front of their house in Izium, Ukraine, on Wednesday. Evgeniy Maloletka/Associated Press

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Three months ago I met Vyacheslav Zadorenko, a community leader from the Kharkiv region. From the relative safety of Derhachi, he told me about how his village, a settlement on the Russian border, had been occupied in the first days of Russia’s invasion. His mother didn’t manage to escape. “My personal victory”, he said, “would be when I can return to my family house”. In midsummer, as Russia consolidated its gains and slowly secured more, that seemed a sad, impossible dream.

But now it’s come true. A video posted on Telegram shows Mr. Zadorenko reunited with his mother. “I’ve gathered all your things, my dear son”, she says, running toward him excitedly.…  Seguir leyendo »