Corea del Norte (Continuación)

Paying off terrorists doesn't work; it only encourages more terrorism. The same is true with nuclear proliferators. They tend to take the bribe and hide the program, and the next thing you know, they're testing nuclear weapons. That was why so many nonproliferation experts welcomed the Bush administration's repudiation of the 1994 "agreed framework" with North Korea. It is also why, after nearly five years of working on nonproliferation issues in the Bush administration, I chose to leave government.

Dec. 31 was the deadline for North Korea to disable its Yongbyon nuclear facility and to provide a full declaration of all its nuclear programs and facilities.…  Seguir leyendo »

Last week's presidential election in South Korea presages a sea change in that key U.S. ally's policies toward North Korea. The resounding defeat of the candidates who favored more of Seoul's all-carrot, no-stick approach to Kim Jong Il presents Washington with a horizon of new possibilities for reining in Asia's most troublesome dictator. The question now is whether the Bush foreign policy team will be adept enough to seize this opportunity.

The landslide vote, to be sure, was in large measure a rebuke of President Roh Moo-hyun's inept handling of the economy and polarizing domestic policies. Yet, taken together, the candidates who opposed the "Peace and Prosperity" policy (originally dubbed "Sunshine") toward North Korea in last Wednesday's election received more than 63 percent of the vote -- compared with 35 percent for all those who approved of it.…  Seguir leyendo »

One year ago tomorrow, North Korea conducted its first nuclear test, a small explosion that established it as the newest member of the world’s nuclear club. Strangely, since then, the prospects for peace and stability in northeastern Asia have never been better. North Korea’s agreement, last week, to disable all its nuclear facilities by year’s end is the biggest step so far in the right direction.

The nuclear test seemed to give President Bush focus. He took control of his administration’s policy toward the North, ending a six-year feud between hard-line conservatives who favor the collapse of Kim Jong-il’s regime and others who favor negotiation.…  Seguir leyendo »

Two big questions hang over the new agreement to contain North Korea's nuclear weapons program at its current level -- whatever that level is.

Why has a secretive government addicted to power politics and flexing its military muscles abruptly turned to negotiations and peaceful compromise?

And why is North Korea doing the same?

The Bush administration, of course, cannot match Kim Jong Il's regime in paranoia, bellicosity and information control, although this White House seems at times to have been tempted to try. Other countries know next to nothing about Pyongyang's motivations, intentions or even its ability to carry out any agreement it makes.…  Seguir leyendo »

Corea del Norte ha cerrado las cinco instalaciones que componen el complejo nuclear de Yongbyon, según han verificado inspectores del Organismo Internacional de la Energía Atómica (OIEA). Se trata del primer paso de un proceso que será largo y complejo, y cuyos objetivos finales, mucho más ambiciosos, incluyen la desnuclearización de la península y la firma de un tratado de paz definitivo entre ambas Coreas. La noticia es positiva, pese a dificultades que quedan por delante. Y si demuestra algo de forma clara es que una diplomacia multilateral real, dirigida a la no proliferación nuclear, es mucho más eficaz que los discursos ideologizados y huecos que la Administración Bush había utilizado y sigue usando, por ejemplo, en Irán.…  Seguir leyendo »

Two weeks ago, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, the U.S. lead in the six-party talks, went to Pyongyang for a sudden and highly secret meeting with North Korean officials. But even if we get closer to breaking the impasse over the North's nuclear possessions and ambitions, the problem of North Korean human rights will loom large as the world continues to learn about the starvation, lack of political and religious freedoms, mass imprisonment, executions, infanticide and other horrors occurring in North Korea.

The lack of access to information about human rights problems is one obstacle. Another is the multifaceted nature of the problems and the diversity of human rights actors, claims and political agendas.…  Seguir leyendo »

North Korea is again dominating headlines by signing a deal to close its main nuclear reactor and allow international inspectors to return in exchange for energy and economic assistance. As North Korea watchers cautiously welcome this possible step toward a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, a deeply disturbing development has garnered almost no attention: Pyongyang's hardening policy toward North Korean border-crossers.

In an ominous reversal, North Korea has apparently scrapped its 2000 decree that it would be lenient toward citizens who "illegally" crossed the border -- in effect, almost everyone leaving the country -- to China to find food or earn money to feed their families.…  Seguir leyendo »

The six-party agreement signed with North Korea last month should certainly be applauded as a necessary first step in improving relations with the United States. While a good deal of the North Korean program is shrouded in mystery — just this week the United States again urged the North Koreans to disclose any uranium-enrichment activities — there are some things we do know, including the nature and status of the country’s reactors.

North Korea’s one functioning reactor, at Yongbyon, uses natural uranium for fuel and graphite as its moderator (the substance that slows the neutrons and enhances the fission reaction). These are the same ingredients used in the first reactor ever designed, which was tested by Enrico Fermi at the University of Chicago in 1942.…  Seguir leyendo »

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her team -- led by Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill -- deserve credit for scoring a major victory in negotiations with North Korea last week. Trading one million tons of heavy fuel oil for North Korea's plutonium production program, which Pyongyang likely used to produce the fissile core for the atomic weapon it tested late last year, is akin to swapping a journeyman fullback for a star quarterback.

After all, the U.S. and its partners in the negotiations -- China, Russia, Japan and South Korea -- can get their hands on one million tons of fuel oil any time they need.…  Seguir leyendo »

In 2006, the headlines from North Korea were depressing. Pyongyang was headed down the path of escalation: missile tests in July, testing a nuclear weapon in October. Now, 2007 has opened with encouraging news -- a breakthrough in Beijing. In effect, the agreement announced last week was answering the bomb test with a successful test of diplomacy. But this deal makes more sense if we understand the broader strategy, set in motion some time ago, that is starting to play out.

In 2005, the United States energized its flagging North Korea efforts on two tracks. One was diplomatic, the other defensive.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Bush administration can point to precious few successes in its efforts to curb North Korea’s mounting menace — even last week’s celebrated nuclear deal with Kim Jong-il’s government is, for the moment, little more than a written promise from a highly unreliable negotiating partner.

Yet inexplicably, the Bush team continues to overlook a spectacular opportunity to deliver freedom to tens of thousands of North Koreans, to pressure the country from within for fundamental change and to lay the groundwork for a peaceful, reunified Korean Peninsula. By fostering an underground railroad to rescue North Korean refugees living in China, the United States could do all these things at once.…  Seguir leyendo »

El anuncio de que Corea del Norte se ha comprometido a desmantelar sus instalaciones nucleares es una noticia positiva. El programa nuclear de este país ha sido durante varios años una de las principales amenazas a la estabilidad y seguridad en el noreste asiático, una zona donde hay varios focos de tensión. Este acuerdo, además, demuestra que el apoyo y una participación internacional basada en el diálogo y el multilateralismo pueden ayudar a reducir las tensiones nucleares regionales. Esto es importante a la hora de construir un mundo más seguro. El ejemplo de Corea del Norte muestra que no hay diferencia tecnológica entre la energía nuclear y las armas nucleares: no existe el 'átomo pacífico'.…  Seguir leyendo »

Those who think that dealing with North Korea is impossible are wrong. Unfortunately, those who think that it is, in fact, possible to deal with North Korea often are not much closer to the truth. The basic problem is that people of both views simply haven't figured out what it is that the North really wants.

We tend to confuse North Korea's short-term tactical goals with its broader strategic focus. We draw up list after list of things we think might appeal to Pyongyang on the assumption that these will constitute a "leveraged buyout," finally achieving what we want: the total, irreversible denuclearization of North Korea.…  Seguir leyendo »

The model city that rose from the ashes of the Korean war is eerily dark at night and strangely quiet during the day. Electricity remains in short supply, while a lack of fuel leaves the roads largely empty. The talk is of a hard winter, with reduced food supplies from China and South Korea plunging some rural areas into desperate hunger.Next week's resumption of six-way talks in Beijing comes at a critical time. North Korea is as isolated now as at any time in its relatively short history. US sanctions aimed at alleged counterfeiting activities have had the unintended effect of freezing much of the country's foreign exchange, legal and illegal.…  Seguir leyendo »

Although I had been keeping my intentions secret from all but my closest inner circle, a small item in The Times on Thursday has forced my hand and I feel compelled to make a declaration. At this stage, however, I am prepared only to announce that I am no longer ruling myself out of the race for the dictatorship of North Korea.

You may be surprised, to hear that the Kim Jong Il is standing down. But you will just have to trust my journalistic intuition. All I know is that Kim has not set a date for when he will go, and that he won’t be fighting the next election.…  Seguir leyendo »

Por Henry A. Kissinger (ABC, 20/11/06):

Puede que dos negociaciones mantenidas a miles de kilómetros de distancia por un grupo de participantes que en gran medida se solapan determinen las perspectivas del orden mundial. En Pekín, Estados Unidos, China, Rusia, Japón y las dos Coreas están negociando el programa nuclear de Corea del Norte; en Viena, el denominado E-3 (Alemania, Francia y Reino Unido) se reúne de cuando en cuando con una delegación de Irán para tratar del programa nuclear de este país.
La diplomacia coreana podría estar a punto de lograr un avance, pero las conversaciones con Irán están en punto muerto.…  Seguir leyendo »

By Joseph S. Nye Jr., a professor at Harvard, chaired the National Security Council Committee on Non-Proliferation in the Carter administration and was assistant secretary of defense in the Clinton administration (THE WASHINGTON POST, 05/11/06):

North Korea is the first country to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and test a nuclear weapon. It has agreed to return to six-party talks about its nuclear status, but skeptics expect little progress.

Some doomsayers are predicting the collapse of the nonproliferation regime, but that kind of fatalism is mistaken. There are many things we can do to prevent such a future.

We are, in fact, doing better at slowing the spread of the bomb than might be expected.…  Seguir leyendo »

By Vaclav Havel, the former president of the Czech Republic, Kjell Magne Bondevik, the former prime minister of Norway and Elie Wiesel, a professor of humanities at Boston University, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1986 (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 30/10/06):

WHILE the focus in recent weeks has been on North Korea’s nuclear test, we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that the government there is also responsible for one of the most egregious human-rights and humanitarian disasters in the world today.

For more than a decade, many in the international community have argued that to focus on the suffering of the North Korean people would risk driving the country away from discussions over its nuclear program.…  Seguir leyendo »

Por Joschka Fischer, ex ministro de Relaciones Exteriores y vicecanciller de Alemania, y profesor visitante de la Escuela Woodrow Wilson de la Universidad de Princeton. Traducción de Claudia Martínez (EL PAÍS, 28/10/06):

El 9 de octubre de 2006 se convertirá en un día para recordar. Es probable que ese día Corea del Norte hiciera estallar una bomba nuclear. ¿Fue una prueba que falló? El futuro tal vez ofrezca respuestas, pero las consecuencias políticas son evidentes y el impacto, sustancial.

En primer lugar, la presión internacional, encabezada por Estados Unidos, China, Rusia y Japón, no fue suficiente para impedir que Corea del Norte tomara esa medida desafortunada.…  Seguir leyendo »

By Graham Allison, an assistant secretary of defense under President Bill Clinton, is director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and the author of "Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe." (THE WASHINGTON POST, 27/10/06):

In an interview aired last week, George Stephanopoulos put the question to President Bush: What would he do if "North Korea sold nukes to Iran or al-Qaeda?" Bush replied, "They'd be held to account."

Seeking specifics, Stephanopoulos asked: "What does that mean?" The president answered, "I want the leader of North Korea to understand that he'll be held to account.…  Seguir leyendo »