Cuerno de África

Eduardo Soteras/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

MundoÁfrica,

Conflict, famine and a great-power competition are colliding in the Horn of Africa, creating enormous instability. The growing prospect of overlapping civil wars and conflicts between nations in the region, which is home to more than 200 million people and accounts for billions of dollars in global commerce, is reason enough for alarm. These conflicts also have the potential to unleash terrorist threats and an increase in migration that could engulf European and Persian Gulf countries, threatening America’s far-reaching interests.

America’s commitment to helping stabilize the Horn of Africa might have been taken for granted even a few months ago. That does not seem the case anymore.…  Seguir leyendo »

A harbor in Mogadishu, Somalia. Brian Otieno for The New York Times

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Trouble has horns to hold but not tails.

This Somali proverb, suggesting that disaster can be prevented but not easily controlled, feels very apt for East Africa right now. Trouble has certainly arrived. Thanks to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia’s expansionist ambitions and reckless designs, the Horn of Africa is on the cusp of a war that would imperil the region and rebound against the rest of the world. It must be stopped before it’s too late.

The catalyst for the conflict is Mr. Abiy’s obsession with making Ethiopia a coastal state. Last year, he declared that Ethiopia could not stay landlocked and must have access to the sea, either by negotiation or by force.…  Seguir leyendo »

Un puerto en Mogadiscio, Somalia. Brian Otieno para The New York Times

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Los problemas tienen cuernos de los que agarrarse. Pero no colas.

Este proverbio somalí, que sugiere que el desastre puede prevenirse pero no controlarse con facilidad, parece muy adecuado para África Oriental en este momento.

Los problemas han llegado, sin duda. Debido a las ambiciones expansionistas y los designios temerarios del primer ministro de Etiopía, Abiy Ahmed, la región del Cuerno de África está en el umbral de una guerra que pondría en peligro a la región y tendría repercusiones en el resto del mundo. Hay que detenerla antes de que sea demasiado tarde.

El catalizador del conflicto es la obsesión de Abiy por convertir a Etiopía en un país costero.…  Seguir leyendo »

Investing in Climate Adaptation and Resilience as a Bulwark Against Conflict

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Across the Horn of Africa, drought and flooding are displacing people and sharpening competition for land and water, risking conflict. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to increase funding for climate adaptation.

Investing in Climate Adaptation and Resilience as a Bulwark Against Conflict

Climate change is increasing the risk of conflict across the Horn of Africa. Intensified droughts and floods render land unusable, force people from their homes and compel them to compete for resources. They also raise the stakes in transboundary water disputes. The climate-conflict link is evident in Kenya, where four consecutive years of failed rains appear to be exacerbating ethnic tensions between farmers and herders jostling for access to scarce land and water.…  Seguir leyendo »

Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani inspects a guard of honor upon arriving at the Bole International Airport during his official visit to Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa, on 10 April 2017. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri

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How has the Gulf crisis affected security and stability in the Horn?

The Gulf and the Horn are intricately intertwined regions that face common threats and vulnerabilities: armed conflict, transnational jihadism and organised crime, including piracy, human trafficking and money laundering. The current crisis comes at a difficult moment for the historically conflict-prone Horn, much of which is either politically unstable, mired in internal armed conflict or still in a state of fragile post-conflict recovery. Turmoil in the Gulf has sharply escalated the region’s already dangerous militarisation as governments are pressed to side either with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or with Qatar (and, indirectly, Turkey).…  Seguir leyendo »

The foreign ministers of Somalia and Qatar hold a joint press conference on 25 May. Photo: Getty Images.

MundoÁfricaMundoOriente Próximo,
Regional stand-off risks polarizing partners in the Horn

The Horn of Africa and the Gulf share close geographical, historical, cultural and political links. Increasing layers of engagement and the formalization of security, governance, trade and development ties between the two regions, particularly visible in the last two years since the war in Yemen began, mean that the longer the Gulf dispute goes on, the greater the ramifications will be for countries in the Horn of Africa.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have formed a strong alliance over issues of mutual importance. While Riyadh’s primary concern is opposing Iranian influence in the region, most visible through the Saudi-led coalition’s actions in Yemen, Abu Dhabi has worked to counteract political Islam, which it believes threatens security in the Gulf and for its Middle East allies.…  Seguir leyendo »

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In the Horn, where cash-strapped regimes often teeter on the brink of financial survival and alliances are made and broken with bewildering regularity, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has found willing partners as Saudi-Iranian tensions escalate.

In the commercial melting pot of Dubai, where British bankers rub shoulders with Afghan carpet sellers, you would be hard-pressed to imagine that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is fighting a major war in Yemen that has sucked in several other Gulf states and four Horn of Africa countries.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two key external belligerents, have small populations and large bank accounts filled with revenue from vast oil and gas reserves.…  Seguir leyendo »