The United States possesses the world’s most advanced military equipment, and quality matters immensely in combat. But quantity gets a say, too. And from ships to shells to soldiers, the U.S. military lacks the personnel and matériel it needs to fight a major war.
America’s armed forces, with a naval fleet roughly half the size it was in 1987 alongside an increasingly smaller and older fleet of combat aircraft, are equipped only for short, sharp, high-intensity conflicts. What happens when a war is longer and more violent? Ukraine’s fight against Russia, Israel’s battles in the Middle East and recent U.S. operations against the Houthis in Yemen offer a preview of the demands of modern war and demonstrate why America requires more than we have now to win a large conflict.… Seguir leyendo »
En enero de 2025, el presidente estadounidense Donald Trump firmó una orden ejecutiva para poner fin a la «armamentización» (weaponization) de los organismos investigativos y de inteligencia federales, con el argumento de que el gobierno anterior había aprovechado sus interconexiones para reprimir a opositores. Los críticos dijeron que era una farsa, y los simpatizantes aplaudieron lo que vieron como firmeza frente a un abuso partidista. Pero detrás de este espectáculo jurídico asoma una historia mucho más amplia en la que intervienen gasoductos, rutas marítimas y flujos de comercio e inversión internacionales.
Los estudiosos de los asuntos internacionales llevan mucho tiempo analizando el uso de relaciones económicas asimétricas como instrumento para la obtención de ventajas estratégicas.… Seguir leyendo »
The reported agreement for Egypt to buy the Chinese Chengdu J-10C 4.5 generation fighter jets is part of a broader shift from focusing on modernizing ground troops to bolstering the air force. The details of the deal have not yet been published. Nonetheless, it reveals Egypt has two motivations beyond backing its arsenal with another fighter jet.
Elusive Western technology
The most important motivation for Egypt’s military diversification strategy (and the biggest source of frustration) is the perceived Western technology starvation.
A quick examination of the map around Egypt shows that the most significant perceived threats to its national security are located in remote places where Egypt doesn’t traditionally enjoy ground troops’ presence.… Seguir leyendo »
No hay extracto porque es una entrada protegida.
Tema
La puesta en práctica de la Estrategia Industrial de Defensa Europea se enfrenta a retos considerables.
Resumen
El 5 de marzo de 2024, la Unión Europea (UE) hizo pública su primera Estrategia Industrial de la Defensa Europea. Tras la guerra en Ucrania, Europa entiende que invertir en su base industrial y tecnológica es una vía fundamental para mejorar la defensa europea, tener un papel más preponderante en el reparto transatlántico de la carga y reducir las dependencias en materia de fabricación y tecnología. La Estrategia llega en el momento adecuado y es de agradecer que ponga el énfasis en la preparación para la defensa, pero en la actualidad plantea más cuestiones de las que resuelve.… Seguir leyendo »
The new $61 billion US aid package for Ukraine, approved by Congress on 23 April, will improve Ukraine’s battlefield position – allowing stocks of ammunition from US bases in Poland and Germany to be shipped quickly to existing Ukrainian forces, and newly mobilized troops to be equipped.
Critics of Ukraine’s mobilization law, recently passed by the parliament in Kyiv, argued it made little sense to draft more men if there were no weapons to arm them: now that concern can be discarded.
The US package includes weapons Ukraine has long sought and which can make a significant difference in the war, like long-range ATACMS missiles.… Seguir leyendo »
President Biden wants the world to believe that the biggest obstacle facing Ukraine is Republicans and our lack of commitment to the global community. This is wrong.
Ukraine’s challenge is not the G.O.P.; it’s math. Ukraine needs more soldiers than it can field, even with draconian conscription policies. And it needs more matériel than the United States can provide. This reality must inform any future Ukraine policy, from further congressional aid to the diplomatic course set by the president.
The Biden administration has applied increasing pressure on Republicans to pass a supplemental aid package of more than $60 billion to Ukraine.… Seguir leyendo »
In January 2024 the head of the British Army, General Sir Patrick Sanders, queried whether the world is at a 1938 moment.
He is not alone in making such linkages to the past or raising questions about the state of Britain’s armed forces today. Grant Shapps, Britain’s Defence Secretary, echoed his sentiments in a speech shortly afterwards. A month later, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, appeared to play down the issue.
Both Sanders and Shapps called for a significant increase in defence spending. Others have called on the British government to bring forward its commitment to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP immediately.… Seguir leyendo »
Here is one fact that sums up the gap between the promises that Kyiv’s European partners have made to Ukraine and the reality. In March 2023, the EU made the historic decision to deliver a million artillery shells to Ukraine within 12 months. But the number that has actually been sent is closer to 300,000. For all the rhetorical commitments to support Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s invasion “for as long as it takes”, Europe has largely failed on this front.
The price of this complacency is already being paid in Ukrainian blood. According to the armed forces of Ukraine, over the summer of 2023, Ukraine was firing up to 7,000 artillery shells a day and managed to degrade Russia’s logistics and artillery to the point where Russia was firing about 5,000 rounds a day.… Seguir leyendo »
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s confidence must be shaken after leaving Washington without the approval of more US military funding for his country amid the ongoing war with Russia.
Although President Joe Biden has stressed the need for Congress to continue supporting Ukraine, Republican opposition to the administration’s request for more than $60 billion in emergency supplemental funding has been stiff. As the GOP demands the passage of stringent border policies from Democrats in exchange for backing the military aid package, the future remains pretty bleak for Ukraine. Even if the two parties end up striking a deal, it’s likely that each subsequent aid package will only face increasing resistance and more roadblocks.… Seguir leyendo »
Vivimos en un mundo agitado. La agresión a Ucrania es la máxima expresión de esa agitación, en un panorama mundial donde surge un nuevo equilibrio de poder con nuevos actores con voluntad de desempeñar un papel global. En ese proceso de reconfiguración la supuesta supremacía de occidente está siendo contestada.
La guerra ha mostrado la escasa preparación de occidente para afrontar un conflicto mayor. Las políticas seguidas desde el final de la guerra fría para cobrar los dividendos de la paz han llegado a su límite. La realidad se ha impuesto y ha llevado a un cambio de mentalidad social y política sobre el gasto en defensa.… Seguir leyendo »
Eyeing the NATO summit in Vilnius next month, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated last Tuesday the need for each alliance member to spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense, a long-standing NATO goal. Stoltenberg’s comments are laudable, but a NATO report released in March suggests that getting all alliance members to actually meet the 2 percent threshold may be easier said than done. Although the report highlights some progress since the goal was set at NATO’s 2014 summit in Wales, it documents many members’ continued failure to meet their defense-spending commitments.
On the good-news side of the ledger: Based on budget estimates for 2022, the United States’ NATO allies—28 European countries plus Canada—collectively increased their defense spending for the eighth consecutive year.… Seguir leyendo »
Tema
El compromiso político para que el presupuesto de Defensa alcance el 2% del PIB en 2029 resulta difícil de realizar debido a la falta de normas y medidas que garanticen su sostenibilidad y mejoren su racionalidad presupuestaria en un entorno económico incierto.
Resumen
La guerra de Ucrania ha venido a demostrar a la UE y a los países europeos pertenecientes a la OTAN, entre otros, que el soft power no es suficiente como forma de disuasión. La consecuencia más inmediata ha sido que la mayoría de los países europeos, entre ellos España, han recuperado el compromiso (incumplido) alcanzado en la Cumbre de la OTAN de Cardiff en 2014 de elevar las inversiones en Defensa hasta el 2% del PIB.… Seguir leyendo »
Entre los insultos habituales que uno recibe (no sin cierta alegría) hay uno que reza así: "Estando como está la Sanidad o la Educación, dedicar más presupuesto a Defensa es de retrasados".
Esto me ha hecho recordar una pregunta que me han formulado reciente. ¿Por qué Ucrania no estaba preparada cuando se produjo la invasión? ¿Por qué su gasto en Defensa fue del 1% entre 1990 y 2014 y de sólo el 2,2% entre 2014 y 2022?
Ambas cuestiones tienen una misma respuesta: sesgos.
Ucrania, esto es así, pudo haber invertido mucho más en Defensa. De hecho, sólo este año ha tenido que dedicar casi el 50% de su PIB a la guerra.… Seguir leyendo »
El entusiasmo con el que Japón comenzó a rearmarse sorprendió a sus aliados y socios internacionales. El mes pasado, el primer ministro japonés Fumio Kishida dio a conocer planes detallados para duplicar el gasto en defensa durante los próximos cinco años, lo que no deja dudas sobre la determinación del país para expandir sus capacidades militares y disuadir a China de su ambición expansionista.
La nueva visión estratégica japonesa representa la culminación de un cambio a largo plazo que comenzó con el predecesor de Kishida, Shinzō Abe, asesinado en julio del año pasado. Durante el gobierno de Abe —desde que regresó al poder en diciembre de 2012 hasta que renunció en septiembre de 2020— Japón modernizó su doctrina militar y aumentó significativamente el gasto para la defensa.… Seguir leyendo »
There are two ways to think about Japan’s announcement this month that it will surge defense spending by more than 50 percent in the next five years and acquire advanced missiles that can strike the Eurasian mainland. The first is that it’s a victory for the U.S.-led world order, because China’s military advantage in the Western Pacific will narrow. The darker version is that it’s a recognition of the failure of the U.S.-led order, which aimed to suppress military competition in East Asia after World War II.
Both the optimistic and pessimistic perspectives reflect important realities, and history will decide which was more apt.… Seguir leyendo »
No hay extracto porque es una entrada protegida.
Japan announced on Friday that it plans to double its defense spending by 2027. That’s good. We will need it if the United States and its democratic allies are to contain China’s aggression.
Japan has long punched below its weight in global affairs. Despite its massive economy, still the world’s third largest, its tiny military has hobbled its ability to project power.
This was by design. Due to Japan’s humiliating defeat in World War II, combined with its neighbors’ resentment stemming from its aggressive war of conquest, the island nation adopted a pacifist sentiment that persists to this day. Even during the Cold War, Japan spent only about 1 percent of its gross domestic product on self-defense forces.… Seguir leyendo »
La guerra de Ucrania ha vuelto a poner en el centro del debate la cuestión de cuál debe ser el peso de la alta tecnología dual con capacidades para nuestra defensa militar y civil en un Estado democrático.
El cambio de percepción de que un ejército sirve, principalmente, para defender los valores fundamentales que vertebran nuestra sociedad va desplazando paulatinamente prejuicios provocados por una historia, la nuestra, cada día menos reciente.
Es fácil caer en la tentación de pensar que la democracia es el destino final natural de la historia. Lo cierto es que es un tesoro que debemos defender y preservar a diario.… Seguir leyendo »
Hundreds of defence and aerospace executives will this week descend on an airfield in southern England along with ministers, generals, air marshals and hangers-on, to attend the industry’s version of the Glastonbury music festival.
This year, they will meet with a renewed sense of purpose. Until it was interrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Farnborough International Airshow has been a regular event for more than seven decades. But for the first time in many years, the industry is relishing the prospect of a flood of money coming its way.
The war in Ukraine has prompted European governments to reverse the course of years of shrinking defence spending.… Seguir leyendo »
