Georgia (Continuación)

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

Las chicas ucranias me vuelven loco de verdad
Dejan Occidente a la zaga
Y las chicas de Moscú me hacen cantar y gritar
Que Georgia siempre está en mi mente.
He vuelto a la URSS
No sabéis cuánta suerte tenéis, chicos,
De vuelta en la URSS
John Lennon & Paul McCartney

No son sólo los osetios del sur los que han vuelto a la URSS esta mañana. Otros georgianos, países del «extranjero cercano» a Rusia, desde el Cáucaso hasta el Báltico, «minorías nacionales» como los chechenos, e incluso los propios rusos, se enfrentan ahora a un país y a unos líderes políticos corruptos, autoritarios, militaristas, y a los que no les preocupa excesivamente dónde acaban sus fronteras.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

Russia is portraying its war in Georgia as a legitimate response to Georgia’s incursion last week into its breakaway region of South Ossetia. Many in the West, while condemning the disproportionate nature of Russia’s response, are also critical of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili for his attempts to bring South Ossetia back under Georgian rule, and of the United States for supposedly encouraging Mr. Saakashvili’s risk-taking by pushing NATO membership for Georgia.

But the truth is that for the past several months, Russia, not Georgia, has been stoking tensions in South Ossetia and another of Georgia’s breakaway areas, Abkhazia. After NATO held a summit in Bucharest, Romania, in April — at which Georgia and Ukraine received positive signs of potential membership — then-President Vladimir Putin of Russia signed a decree effectively treating Abkhazia and South Ossetia as parts of the Russian Federation.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

The Russian tank columns rumbling into Georgia reveal the anger of a tiger finally swatting the mouse that has teased it for years. South Ossetia may seem as distant, trivial and complicated as the 19th-century Schleswig-Holstein question but Russia's fury is about much more than the Ossetians. The Caucasus matters greatly to the Russians for all sorts of reasons, none greater than the fact that it now also matters to us.

The troubles in Georgia are not the equivalent of an assassinated archduke in Sarajevo. But historians may well point to this little war, beside the spectacular Olympic launch of resurgent China, as the start of the twilight of America's sole world hegemony.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

In weeks and years past, each of us has argued on this page that Moscow was pursuing a policy of regime change toward Georgia and its pro-Western, democratically elected president, Mikheil Saakashvili. We predicted that, absent strong and unified Western diplomatic involvement, we were headed toward a war. Now, tragically, an escalation of violence in South Ossetia has culminated in a full-scale Russian invasion of Georgia. The West, and especially the United States, could have prevented this war. We have arrived at a watershed moment in the West's post-Cold War relations with Russia.

Exactly what happened in South Ossetia last week is unclear.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

The details of who did what to precipitate Russia's war against Georgia are not very important. Do you recall the precise details of the Sudeten Crisis that led to Nazi Germany's invasion of Czechoslovakia? Of course not, because that morally ambiguous dispute is rightly remembered as a minor part of a much bigger drama.

The events of the past week will be remembered that way, too. This war did not begin because of a miscalculation by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. It is a war that Moscow has been attempting to provoke for some time. The man who once called the collapse of the Soviet Union "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century" has reestablished a virtual czarist rule in Russia and is trying to restore the country to its once-dominant role in Eurasia and the world.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , , ,

EU foreign ministers meeting in emergency session today to discuss the situation in Georgia should begin by asking why it took the outbreak of war to focus their attention. They had no cause to be surprised. The warning signs had been apparent for at least a year, and the Georgian government had made strenuous efforts to raise the alarm. This time last summer a Russian jet violated Georgian airspace and dropped a missile north of Tbilisi in what appeared to be a botched attack on a Georgian radar installation. Russia denied involvement, but two separate independent investigations found otherwise. Despite this, Georgia's plea for diplomatic support fell almost entirely on deaf ears.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucaso, , ,

Era un acontecimiento anunciado. Georgia y más concretamente sus dos repúblicas separatistas de Osetia del Sur y Abjasia son una caldera hirviendo en la que EE UU y Rusia están echando un pulso de incierto resultado. Incertidumbre que desaparece al considerar los sufrimientos que el enfrentamiento bélico traerá y que son una obviedad como en cualquier conflicto cuando las armas son las que mandan. Las escaramuzas constantes de los aviones espías, las declaraciones más o menos incendiarias y el espíritu de enfrentamiento han dado lugar al bombardeo días atrás de la capital de Osetia del Sur, Tsjinvali, por aviones georgianos, a modo de preludio de la inmediata invasión terrestre de la república separatista que incluye las zonas montañosas de las regiones históricas georgianas de Imereti, Racha y Shida Kartli en las que se instalaron osetas procedentes del Cáucaso norte.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

For the best possible illustration of why Islamic terrorism may one day be considered the least of our problems, look no farther than the BBC's split-screen coverage of yesterday's Olympic opening ceremonies. On one side, fireworks sparkled, and thousands of exotically dressed Chinese dancers bent their bodies into the shape of doves, the cosmos and more. On the other side, gray Russian tanks were shown rolling into South Ossetia, a rebel province of Georgia. The effect was striking: Two of the world's rising powers were strutting their stuff.

The difference, of course, is that one event has been rehearsed for years, while the other, if not a total surprise, was not actually scheduled to take place this week.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

For many people the sight of Russian tanks streaming across a border in August has uncanny echoes of Prague 1968. That cold war reflex is natural enough, but after two decades of Russian retreat from those bastions it is misleading. Not every development in the former Soviet Union is a replay of Soviet history.

The clash between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia, which escalated dramatically yesterday, in truth has more in common with the Falklands war of 1982 than it does with a cold war crisis. When the Argentine junta was basking in public approval for its bloodless recovery of Las Malvinas, Henry Kissinger anticipated Britain's widely unexpected military response with the comment: "No great power retreats for ever."…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropaInternacionalOTAN, ,

Cuando en 1982, con el voto favorable de la mayoría absoluta del Congreso de los Diputados, España entró en la OTAN, el PSOE, entonces anclado en el no a la Alianza, resumió las razones de su rechazo en un folletito -que hoy debe tener la categoría de incunable- titulado, si no recuerdo mal «50 razones en contra de la entrada de España en la OTAN». Una de las cincuenta razones argumentaba, y cito de memoria, que la entrada de España en la Organización atlántica rompería el equilibrio geoestratégico europeo al aumentar el número de miembros de la alianza occidental mientras permanecía invariable el del Pacto de Varsovia.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

There is war in the air between Georgia and Russia. Such a war could destabilize a region critical for Western energy supplies and ruin relations between Russia and the West. A conflict over Georgia could become an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign. How they respond could become a test of the potential commander-in-chief qualities of Barack Obama and John McCain.

The issue appears to be the future of Abkhazia, a breakaway province of Georgia and the focus of a so-called frozen conflict. The real issue, however, is Moscow's desire to subjugate Tbilisi and thwart its aspirations to go west. For several years, Russian policy toward countries on its borders has been hardening.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

Before it happened, nobody imagined that the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo would set off World War I. Before the "shot heard round the world" was fired, I doubt that 18th-century Concord expected to go down in history as the place where the American Revolution began. Before last weekend, when the Russian news agency ITAR-TASS declared that the government of Georgia was about to invade Abkhazia, nobody had really thought about Abkhazia at all. As a public service to readers who need a break from the American presidential campaign, this column is therefore devoted to considering the possibility that Abkhazia could become the starting point of a larger war.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucaso, , ,

When Ganimat Zahidov, editor of the independent Azadlyq newspaper, arrived for work one day this month in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, he was accosted on the pavement by a young woman he had never seen before who started cursing and shouting at him. Moments later "an athletically built young man popped out of nowhere and began beating me", he said. "I defended myself as best I could."

Within hours, Zahidov had been arrested by police, charged with "hooliganism" and sentenced to two months' pre-trial detention. If found guilty, he faces five years in jail. He joined eight other Azerbaijani journalists, including editor Einulla Fatullaye, who are currently being held after criticising or otherwise annoying the government of President Ilham Aliyev.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucaso,

The French Revolution had its Jacobins; the Russian Revolution erupted in Red Terror. The peaceful revolutions of more recent years weren't supposed to produce violent counterrevolutions. But now one of them has.

Indeed, in a single week, the president of Georgia -- Mikheil Saakashvili, or "Misha" to his friends -- probably did more damage to American "democracy promotion" than a dozen Pervez Musharrafs ever could have done. After all, no one expected much in the way of democracy from Pakistan. But a surprising amount was expected of Georgia -- a small, clannish, mountainous country wedged between Russia and Turkey -- expectations that have now vanished in the crowds of riot police and clouds of tear gas that Saakashvili sent pouring out over the streets of Tbilisi, breaking up street demonstrations there last Wednesday.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucaso

It would be easy to buy into Mikhail Saakashvili's claims that Russian agents are responsible for the latest crisis in Georgia. The president's strong pro-US and pro-Nato stance intensely irritates Moscow and relations between the two countries are dire. Russia routinely exploits separatist and border tensions, and a key oil pipeline running from Azerbaijan to Turkey via Georgia undermines Kremlin efforts to monopolise energy supplies to the west from the Caspian basin.

But leaders of Georgia's recently formed 10-party opposition coalition, and this week's street demonstrators, do not dispute the country's pro-western orientation, which most Georgians, ever wary of Russia, support.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa,

While the United States is otherwise preoccupied, this small former Soviet republic has become the stage for a blatant effort at regime change, Russian-style. Vladimir Putin is going all out to undermine and get rid of Georgia's young, pro-American, pro-democracy president, Mikheil Saakashvili. Putin is assuming that the United States, overwhelmed by Iraq and needing Moscow's support on North Korea and Iran, will not make Georgia a "red-line" issue and that the European Union, fearful of endangering energy supplies from Russia, will similarly play it down.

Much is at stake: Putin's long-term strategic goal is to create a sphere of Russian dominance and hegemony in the vast area the Soviet Union and the czars once ruled.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

By Masha Lipman, editor of the Carnegie Moscow Center's Pro et Contra journal, writes a monthly column for The Post (THE WASHINGTON POST, 21/10/06):

A Georgian migrant worker died at a Moscow airport this week while awaiting deportation. Tengiz Togonidze, 48, had asthma and was gasping for breath, but he was reportedly denied permission to get some fresh air either during the five days he was held in a detention center or afterward, during the trip to the airport, which took many hours. He was one of some 700 ethnic Georgians deported over the past three weeks as the government's anti-Georgia policies turned into a campaign of harassment of Georgians in Russia.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa,

By Edward Lucas, Central and Eastern Europe corrrespondant for The Economist (THE TIMES, 13/10/06):

“A FARAWAY COUNTRY of which we know nothing.” Neville Chamberlain may have been unfair to Czechoslovakia when he dismissed it so casually in 1938. But it is all too true of the countries on the fringe of Europe that now find themselves the front lines in the new cold war: Georgia and Moldova.

Not for them the stag parties that now infest the old centres of Prague and Riga; not for them the eager amateur property speculators who are buying up derelict cottages in Bulgaria and Bohemia.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa,

By Simon Tisdall (THE GUARDIAN, 03/10/06):

Tension between Russia and Georgia has been building for months and will not be defused even if the latest clash over alleged Russian spying is resolved. Territorial, ethnic and religious disputes, local politics, ideology and history are all contributing factors. But the broader context is a continuing post-cold war struggle for influence between Moscow and Washington in the strategic trans-Caucasus region.Since winning power after the western-backed 2003 "rose revolution", President Mikhail Saakashvili has moved to integrate Georgia into Nato and the European Union. The US has been especially supportive, with President George Bush visiting Tbilisi last year.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucasoEuropa, , ,

By Ana Palacio and Daniel Twining, the former foreign minister of Spain and an Oxford-based consultant to the German Marshall Fund of the United States, respectively. (THE WASHINGTON POST, 11/03/06):

Since 2003, democratic revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia have dealt strategic blows to the ambition of Russia's leaders to reconstitute the former Soviet empire by retaining political and military suzerainty over their weaker neighbors. But Russia's imperial pretensions along its periphery linger.

Calls from the elected presidents of Georgia and Ukraine for a united Europe stretching "from the Atlantic to the Caspian" should embolden Europe and the United States to help people aspiring to freedom in other post-Soviet states end Russia's continuing dominion over them by rolling back the corrupting influence of Russian power in regions beyond its borders.…  Seguir leyendo »