As the second round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran get underway this weekend, suspicion and distrust between the two sides remain high. U.S. President Donald Trump continues to make threats against the country I served for years as a policymaker and a diplomat. Understandably, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains cautious. “We are very pessimistic about the other side, but we are optimistic about our own capabilities”, he said recently.
As such, many analysts believe the chances of a deal are slim. In fact, the American side doesn’t seem entirely sure what outcome it wants from the negotiations.… Seguir leyendo »
Négocier avec un adversaire désarmé en pointant un pistolet sur sa tempe, c’est l’inviter à une reddition sans conditions. Il semble que nous assistions à ce scénario entre Donald Trump et le régime des mollahs iraniens. En 2018, Trump avait déchiré l’accord international sur le nucléaire iranien approuvé par son prédécesseur, puis fait exécuter en 2020 le général Qassem Soleimani, architecte de l’expansion régionale de l’Iran et concepteur de son «axe de la résistance» chargé d’étrangler Israël et qui a culminé avec l’attaque du 7 octobre 2023. Désormais, avec des bombardiers furtifs B2 déployés à Diego Garcia et deux porte-avions dépêchés sur zone, Trump ne laissera plus à l’Iran l’opportunité de ruser pour gagner du temps et attendre l’arrivée d’un successeur plus clément à la Maison Blanche.… Seguir leyendo »
When the Islamic Republic of Iran marked its 46th anniversary in February, protests erupted in the remote southwestern city of Dehdasht. Iranians chanted anti-regime slogans and held signs reading, “From Dehdasht to Tehran, unity, unity”. The demonstrations were part of a national movement that has been simmering since 2022, after the killing of a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, prompted tens of thousands of Iranians to take to the streets to seek justice and demand freedom. The Women, Life, Freedom uprising has continued through rooftop chants, daily defiance of the regime’s hijab law and sporadic, smaller protests across the country.… Seguir leyendo »
On Saturday, April 12, American and Iranian officials will restart talks over curbing Tehran’s nuclear program. The talks come after U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter, in early March, to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei proposing negotiations. “We have a very big meeting”, the president said in announcing the talks. “We’ll see what can happen”.
There are reasons to hope that Trump’s overtures will succeed. The president has an almost instinctive love of dealmaking, and he has said he wants to make Iran prosperous again. But there are also reasons to be trepidatious. Even as they have embraced talks, Trump’s officials have upped the pressure on Tehran.… Seguir leyendo »
No hay extracto porque es una entrada protegida.
No hay extracto porque es una entrada protegida.
2025 is the year the Iran nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA, signed in 2015, is set to formally expire. The deal has been on life support since the US withdrew in 2018 under the first Trump administration. Efforts at reviving it, or reaching a longer and stronger agreement, have failed amid a trust deficit, US ‘maximum pressure’ policy, and geopolitical and regional crises – particularly the Gaza war.
When the JCPOA expires, so too will the few remaining enforcement tools that allow some pressure to be exerted on Tehran – including snapback sanctions, which can be invoked by any party at the United National Security Council (UNSC).… Seguir leyendo »
No hay extracto porque es una entrada protegida.
No hay extracto porque es una entrada protegida.
L’ « axe de la résistance » sous l’égide de l’Iran a connu des revers majeurs ces derniers mois, avec la décapitation des commandants du Hezbollah et la réduction très significative de ses capacités opérationnelles, dont son arsenal de missiles. Pis encore, avec Bachar el-Assad réfugié à Moscou, Téhéran a perdu de sa profondeur stratégique, compliquant l’approvisionnement en armes du Hezbollah.
Privé de l’essentiel de cette force de projection – qui prendrait des années à être reconstituée, Téhéran semble n’avoir plus qu’une seule jambe sur laquelle se tenir : son programme nucléaire. L’Iran a, par le passé, fait preuve de malléabilité sur ce sujet, réduisant son intensité en échange d’un allégement des sanctions, ou, à l’inverse, l’augmentant afin d’être en position de force lors de négociations.… Seguir leyendo »
In the first half of 2024, Iran saw its Axis of Resistance – the Assad regime in Syria, and a collection of militant groups, including Hizbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza – as still providing the Islamic Republic a measure of protection and region-wide influence.
What a difference a few months can make. In July, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. In September, Israel detonated hundreds of Hizbollah’s pagers and other devices, taking out much of its mid-level command. Airstrikes and a ground offensive followed, killing Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and decimating its ranks and military assets, while razing many villages.… Seguir leyendo »
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The ousting of Syria’s brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad by his own people is not just a momentous national event but one with consequences spilling across the Middle East, nowhere more so than Iran. Tehran’s abrupt withdrawal from Syria, having propped up Assad since the 2011 Arab Spring uprising, has exposed Iran’s strategic and military weakness.
Iran’s opportunistically constructed axis of resistance – composed of Hamas in Gaza, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Assad in Syria, militia groups in Iraq and the Yemen-based Houthis – was designed to provide Tehran with strategic depth and deter attacks. In the last year, the network has suffered significant blows at the hands of Israel.… Seguir leyendo »
The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria is a momentous event, bringing to an end one of the most brutal dictatorships of the past half-century. But it does not automatically usher in reconciliation and democracy. To be clear: the Middle East was and remains on an escalation path, while Russia’s determination to annihilate Ukraine as an independent country is unlikely to be affected by its humiliation in Syria.
Within Syria, violence, sectarianism and division are more likely scenarios than peace and stability, especially in the Kurdish-populated north, on which Turkish coercion is likely to increase.
Assad’s toppling may further weaken Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has already been severely degraded by Israel.… Seguir leyendo »
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Now that the dust has settled, following the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, it is crucial to ask whether this deal will last. Let’s face it, we’ve been here before.
In 2006, Hezbollah and Israel fought viciously for more than a month for reasons not dissimilar to today’s context. By conducting a cross-border raid against Israeli troops, Hezbollah sought to alleviate some pressure on Hamas, which was battling with Israel in Gaza.
The operation backfired, triggering a devastating conflict that led to the killing of roughly 1,100 Lebanese and 160 Israelis, and to massive displacement and damage to infrastructure in southern Lebanon.… Seguir leyendo »
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Tras los recientes ataques de Israel a instalaciones militares iraníes, en represalia por el ataque con misiles balísticos de Irán a Israel, la opinión general es que se ha contenido el riesgo de una mayor escalada. Las declaraciones iniciales del líder supremo de la República Islámica parecieron señalar que no habría más respuestas iraníes; y al parecer los mercados financieros coincidieron, ya que el precio del petróleo cayó un 5% inmediatamente después de los ataques israelíes (aunque volvió a subir un poco tras nuevas declaraciones amenazantes de algunos comandantes iraníes).
Pero es probable que la opinión general esté equivocada. Estos últimos meses, ha habido profundos cambios en la evaluación que hace Israel de la amenaza iraní.… Seguir leyendo »
At the 16th BRICS Summit hosted by Russia in Kazan (October 22-24, 2024), there were a few meetings on the sidelines which created a buzz. One such meeting was between India and Iran, both close civilisational friends and looking to strengthen a stagnating partnership. Iran, which is now embroiled in the war in Gaza, is looking for Indian support in de-escalating the crisis. India, too, has supported having a ceasefire and de-escalation at the earliest. Globally, India is being widely sought after to facilitate a peaceful resolution to the conflict as it enjoys trust and goodwill across both ends of the conflict, with Israel and Iran.… Seguir leyendo »
If a person is fortunate enough to live into his ninth decade, life often turns toward quiet reflection, relaxation and the comforts of family and community. Not for the 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The sunset years of Iran’s supreme leader have been defined by a series of daunting challenges: regional humiliations, domestic uprisings, the looming threat of war with Israel and a pivotal decision on whether to pursue nuclear weapons — a choice with profound implications for his political legacy and the country he has ruled for 35 years.
In the past 100 days, Mr. Khamenei has endured devastating losses. Israel struck decisive blows against Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, including the assassination of the Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Yahya Sinwar in Gaza and the elimination of Mr.… Seguir leyendo »
