Japón (Continuación)

Japón la recuperación económica interminable

Tema: El año 2006 y los primeros meses de 2007 han confirmado que la recuperación económica de Japón es todavía frágil. La razón principal es que el consumo privado ha vuelto a mostrar signos de atonía, tras dos años de evolución alentadora. Las perspectivas a corto plazo se ven enturbiadas por el signo restrictivo de la política fiscal y por las diferencias entre el Gobierno y el banco central sobre el rumbo que debe tomar la política monetaria.

Resumen: Este análisis expone, en primer lugar, los decepcionantes resultados económicos de Japón en 2006. En segundo término, argumenta que la atonía del consumo es la causa principal de esa evolución, aunque hay que tener en cuenta igualmente una política fiscal que ha seguido siendo restrictiva y una política monetaria que ha comenzado a serlo.…  Seguir leyendo »

Tema: Este ARI describe la evolución de la política de seguridad de Japón en los últimos años y las expectativas creadas por el surgimiento de un nuevo actor estratégico.

Resumen: La política de seguridad internacional de Japón ha cambiado mucho en los últimos años. Su protagonismo estratégico ha ido en aumento, participando en misiones internacionales de mantenimiento de la paz o proporcionando asistencia humanitaria de emergencia dentro y fuera de la región de Asia-Pacífico. En los últimos meses se han sucedido algunas manifestaciones llamativas de esos cambios, como contar con un ministro y con un Ministerio –en lugar de una Agencia– de Defensa desde principios de año o la visita de su primer ministro a la sede del Consejo Atlántico de la OTAN en Bruselas en enero para consolidar su condición de socio estratégico.…  Seguir leyendo »

Apenas medio año después de haber asumido el cargo de primer ministro de Japón, Shinzo Abe está provocando ira en toda Asia y sentimientos encontrados en el país que es su aliado clave, Estados Unidos. Pero ¿usará la Administración Bush su influencia para apartar a Abe del comportamiento provocador?

El antecesor de Abe, Junichiro Koizumi, fue un líder que rompió moldes y revivió la economía de Japón, reformó el sistema de ahorro postal y destrozó el sistema de facciones del Partido Democrático Liberal que ha gobernado durante mucho tiempo. Pero Koizumi también legitimó un nuevo nacionalismo japonés, irritando a China y Corea del Sur con sus visitas anuales al santuario de Yasukuni.…  Seguir leyendo »

Shinzo Abe, el nuevo primer ministro japonés, ha visitado recientemente Europa en un viaje que ha incluido una novedad histórica: la primera visita de un jefe de Gobierno japonés a la sede de la OTAN. Tal acercamiento entre Japón y la Alianza Atlántica corresponde a una doble voluntad. En primer lugar, la de Estados Unidos en el sentido de transformar la alianza nacida durante la guerra fría para unir los esfuerzos de defensa de europeos y norteamericanos frente a la amenaza soviética en el marco de una alianza global y mundial de las democracias de manera que pueda intervenir fuera de Europa, como ya lo hace en Afganistán, convirtiéndose en el brazo armado de la guerra contra el terrorismo.…  Seguir leyendo »

Japan is about to embark on a democratic experiment with important consequences for the rest of Asia. After a lapse of 60 years, the country is planning to bring back a jury system — but a huge effort will be required to convince ordinary Japanese about its advantages. Americans can help by sharing their jury experiences with the Japanese.

Beginning in 2009, Japan will institute a jury system called saiban-in. Juries consisting of three law-trained judges and six citizens chosen by lottery will decide criminal cases by majority vote. Japan had an American-style jury system for 15 years, but it was abolished by Japan’s military government in 1943.…  Seguir leyendo »

Japan has embarked on a path no developed nation has ever followed -- of sustained and inexorable population decline.

Japan won't be alone, of course. Italy, Russia, South Korea and many others also will get smaller. The United States is the exception among advanced nations, and not only thanks to immigration; its overall birth rate is higher, too.

But Japan, which shrank by about 21,000 last year, is in the forefront, and so everyone else will be watching. Does population decline inevitably sap vitality and doom a country to genteel poverty? Or is there some way out?

"Japan is the leader, so it's important for Japan to show success," says Hitoshi Suzuki, a cheerful senior researcher at Daiwa Institute of Research, who pronounces himself "not so worried" -- so not worried, in fact, that last year he wrote "Population Decline is Not Something We Need to Fear."…  Seguir leyendo »

Shinzo Abe likes to point out that he is Japan's first prime minister born after World War II.

That was his opening observation in his inaugural address to parliament when he took over in September. He's likely to mention it when he holds his first official meeting with President Bush later this week, in Vietnam. And he discussed it Tuesday in a conversation here with me and Post Tokyo bureau chief Anthony Faiola.

"It means I am a prime minister born and raised in the new values," he said, the values of "democracy, freedom and human rights."

The Japanese, who love nothing more than to discuss who they are as a people and where they are headed, are entering one of their periodic debates about identity, and Abe says he is determined to help shape that debate -- "to take a step forward toward a new nation-building," as he has said.…  Seguir leyendo »

By Charles Krauthammer (THE WASHINGTON POST, 20/10/06):

The first stop on Condoleezza Rice's post-detonation, nuclear reassurance tour was Tokyo. There she dutifully unfurled the American nuclear umbrella, pledging in person that the United States would meet any North Korean attack on Japan with massive American retaliation, nuclear if necessary.

An important message, to be sure, for the short run, lest Kim Jong Il imbibe a little too much cognac and be teased by one of his "pleasure squad" lovelies into launching a missile or two into Japan.

But Rice's declaration had another and obvious longer-run intent: to quell any thought Japan might have of going nuclear to counter and deter North Korea's bomb.…  Seguir leyendo »

By Yoshihisa Komori, the Washington correspondent and editor at large for the Japanese daily Sankei Shimbun (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 30/09/06):

LAST Tuesday, Japan’s Parliament elected Shinzo Abe as its youngest prime minister since World War II. Some critics in Japan have called him a “hawkish nationalist,” but in fact, he — like the nearly 80 percent of Japanese also born after the war — has merely been shaped by democracy.

Mr. Abe in particular was also influenced by the course of Japan’s alliance with America. In 1960, the 6-year-old Shinzo Abe sat on the lap of his grandfather, Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi, while thousands marched outside demonstrating against the first full-fledged security treaty between Japan and the United States.…  Seguir leyendo »

By Martin Jacques, a visiting research fellow at the Asia Research Centre, London School of Economics (THE GUARDIAN, 27/09/06):

La elección de Shinzo Abe como máximo dirigente del Partido Liberal Democrático de Japón y ahora también primer ministro del país va a tener repercusiones profundas en Japón y en el este de Asia. En su inmensa mayoría, los comentarios en occidente durante el mandato de su antecesor, Junichiro Koizumi, han girado en torno al grado de mayor o menor liberalización que Japón aplicaba a las riendas que sujetaban las fuerzas del mercado. Aunque se trata de un tema de importancia, la cuestión que más debería ocuparnos es el creciente nacionalismo en el país del sol naciente.…  Seguir leyendo »

Por Brahma Chellaney, profesor de Estudios Estratégicos en el Centro de Investigación Política de Nueva Delhi. Acaba de publicar Asian juggernaut: the rise of China, India and Japan (LA VANGUARDIA, 27/09/06):

El nombramiento de Shinzo Abe como primer ministro más joven de Japón tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial comportará más de un cambio de rumbo. La elección de Abe como presidente del Partido Liberal Democrático (PLD) en el Gobierno no sólo simboliza el cambio generacional en curso, sino que también presagia un nuevo Japón más enérgico y deseoso de influir en el actual equilibrio de poder en Asia. Abe acelerará el cambio nacionalista en política instituido por su mentor, el primer ministro saliente Junichiro Koizumi.…  Seguir leyendo »

By George F. Will (THE WASHINGTON POST, 07/09/06):

TOKYO -- Longevity is a blessing, but the Japanese live inconveniently long lives. Inconvenient, that is, for those who administer Japan's welfare state.

Welfare states are made possible by the productivity of modern economies, which make possible living conditions -- improved nutrition, hygiene, housing, medical care, education, environment -- that increase life expectancy. That increase threatens the solvency of welfare states, because the elderly receive most government transfer payments: pensions and medical care.

The life expectancy of Japanese women (85.5) is the world's highest, and that of men (78.5) is behind only Hong Kong and Switzerland.…  Seguir leyendo »

By George F. Will (THE WASHINGTON POST, 27/08/06):

TOKYO -- Ever since Commodore Perry's black ships entered the harbor here in 1853, the Japanese have wondered whether their nation could modernize without becoming thoroughly westernized. Today they wonder whether their nation can provide for their defense and play a proper role in the international security system without jettisoning a national identity imposed in 1947 by the nation that had sent the black ships.

In America, many domestic issues become constitutional controversies, but presidents have negligible constitutional restraints on their conduct of foreign policy. In Japan, foreign policy often begins -- and almost ends -- by construing Article 9 of the constitution imposed by the American occupation 60 years ago.…  Seguir leyendo »

By George F. Will (THE WASHINGTON POST, 24/08/06):

TOKYO -- Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's tenure, which ends next month, has been more remarkable than perhaps most Japanese comprehend. He is the third-longest-serving prime minister since 1945, and his five years have echoed aspects of the careers of four Western leaders: Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, Rudy Giuliani and Andrew Jackson.

Like Thatcher, of whom it was said that she could not see an institution without swatting it with her handbag, Koizumi, 64, cast a cool eye on his country and found it overregulated and enervated by excessive dependence on the state. Like Blair, who came to power disliking his Labor Party even more than he did the Conservative opposition, Koizumi thought that many of Japan's problems reflected the political culture congenial to his Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed Japan for all but 10 months since 1955.…  Seguir leyendo »

By Jim Hoagland (THE WASHINGTON POST, 20/08/06):

Germany and Japan have served six decades on global probation. It is time for their neighbors, their citizens and the international community to acknowledge the thorough transformation of the former Axis powers into fully democratic and morally responsible nations.

Comes now Guenter Grass, Germany's most accomplished novelist, to remind us of this need, albeit inadvertently. As does Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi of Japan, much more deliberately. They have touched off controversies that bring into focus questions of war guilt, selective historical amnesia and, for Grass, the role of the artist in consumer-dominated societies.

Grass is simultaneously a Nobel laureate in literature, a deeply flawed political thinker and a willing human lightning rod for national angst.…  Seguir leyendo »

By George F. Will (THE WASHINGTON POST, 20/08/06):

TOKYO -- The past is present everywhere, but Japan is an unusually history-haunted nation. Elsewhere the Cold War is spoken of in the past tense. Japan, however, lives in a dangerous neighborhood with two communist regimes -- truculent China and weird North Korea. For Japan, the fall of the Berlin Wall did not close an epoch. Even World War II still shapes political discourse because of a Shinto shrine in the center of this city.

Young soldiers leaving Japan during that war often would say, "If I don't come home, I'll see you at Yasukuni."…  Seguir leyendo »

By G. John Ikenberry (THE WASHINGTON POST, 17/08/06):

Japan has a serious geopolitical problem -- and increasingly it is an American problem as well.

Essentially, the problem is that Japan has not been able to eliminate the suspicions and grievances that still linger in China and Korea about Japan's militarist past. While postwar Germany has somehow been able to put the "history issue" to rest, postwar Japan has not. The result is that Japan -- 61 years after its surrender and the inauguration of its long, peaceful return to the international community -- remains isolated and incapable of providing leadership in a region that is quickly transforming in the shadow of a rising China.…  Seguir leyendo »

By Gary J. Bass, an associate professor of politics and international affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University, is the author of “Stay the Hand of Vengeance: The Politics of War Crimes Tribunals.’’ (THE NEW YORK TIMES, 05/08/06):

Princeton, N.J.

IF Dec. 7 is the date that Americans remember for the infamy of Pearl Harbor, then Aug. 15 is the wrenching coda remembered by Japanese: the date on which, in 1945, Japan agreed to surrender in World War II. Under Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, however, Aug. 15 has been marked not just by dignified commemoration, but by repeated international brawls over his annual visits to the tainted Yasukuni war shrine.…  Seguir leyendo »

Por Augusto Soto, profesor del Centro de Estudios Internacionales e Interculturales de la Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona (REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO, 25/05/06):

Tema: Ha pasado un año desde las gigantescas protestas antijaponesas en China. En los últimos meses ha seguido aumentando la tensión entre Pekín y Tokio, recalentada por temas históricos estrechamente vinculados al presente político y material del vínculo bilateral. La calidad de la relación entre los Gobiernos ha seguido descendiendo y el contacto diplomático al más alto nivel ha sido discontinuo. Así las cosas, las declaraciones y los gestos cobran más importancia que nunca.

Resumen: Este análisis se propone, primero, mostrar el cambio de tono y algunas nuevas posturas en la relación sino-japonesa con respecto a la situación de hace un año.…  Seguir leyendo »

By Richard Lloyd Parry. This is an extract of Tokyo Notebook (THE TIMES, 28/03/06):

OVER DINNER the other week an American friend confided in me an astonishing secret. He is 30 years old, educated in the US and Britain, and has spent the best part of four years living in Japan. He has worked as an English teacher, speaks good Japanese, and lives in Tokyo, where he is establishing a name for himself as an artist. In the meantime, he supports himself in a profession that could only exist in Japan. Every Saturday and Sunday, and sometimes on other days during the peak spring and summer season, he travels to one of the tens of thousands of wedding chapels found in every Japanese town.…  Seguir leyendo »