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A badly damaged home in Shlomi, northern Israel, on Wednesday, after it was hit by a Hezbollah-fired rocket from Lebanon. (Francisco Seco/AP)

MundoOriente Próximo,

The cease-fire agreement between Israel and Lebanon feels like déjà vu — and not the good kind. As a resident of Shlomi in northern Israel who has been displaced for more than a year since Hezbollah unleashed a relentless rocket-fire campaign the day after Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attack in the south, I do not support this deal. It shows that the Israeli government hasn’t learned the lessons of Oct. 7 and expects my family and neighbors to pay the price.

The government also hasn’t learned the lessons of 2006. That’s when Hezbollah sparked a 34-day with Israel by killing three Israeli soldiers and kidnapping two others in a surprise cross-border attack.…  Seguir leyendo »

Une femme fait le signe de la victoire et tient un poster des chefs du Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah et Hachem Safieddine, dans la ville de Cana, le 27 novembre 2024. Photo Anwar Amro/AFP

MundoOriente Próximo,

Lorsque les forces palestiniennes ont quitté Beyrouth en 1982, chassées par les Israéliens, elles ont arboré des signes de victoire sur les camions qui les transportaient vers le port. Cela a conduit plus tard le responsable de l’Organisation de libération de la Palestine, Issam Sartawi, à faire remarquer qu’avec d’autres victoires comme celle du Liban, l’OLP se retrouverait bientôt dans les îles Fidji.

Ce souvenir revient à l’esprit en examinant la une du quotidien pro-Hezbollah al-Akhbar le jour de l’entrée en vigueur du cessez-le-feu au Liban. Le journal titrait : « Inébranlable, victorieux ». Même en supposant que l’on adhère sans réfléchir à la vision du monde du Hezbollah, croire que la guerre de treize mois menée par le parti contre Israël constitue de quelque manière que ce soit une victoire est tellement délirant que cela doit en fait rassurer les ennemis du parti.…  Seguir leyendo »

Un drapeau du Hezbollah au milieu des décombres d’un bâtiment détruit dans le village de Zibqin, dans le sud du Liban, le 27 novembre 2024. Anwar Amro/AFP

MundoOriente Próximo,

Dans la foulée du cessez-le-feu temporaire proclamé au bout d’une guerre éprouvante de plus d’un an, mais surtout au terme de près de deux mois d’une intensité destructrice sans pareille pour le Liban, le bilan, même provisoire, s’impose : il est écrasant. Pour le pays, en effet, les suites tragiques de la guerre ouverte par le Hezbollah en octobre de l’an dernier dont la dévastation du Sud et de l’Est libanais ainsi que les ravages opérés dans la banlieue de la capitale par une machine de guerre israélienne déchaînée, ciblant civils comme combattants, constituent des pertes humaines immenses, des souffrances indicibles, de nouvelles misères sociales et un coût économique et de régression se chiffrant par milliards de dollars.…  Seguir leyendo »

Smoke and flames rise after an Israeli strike in the Shiyah district of Beirut's southern suburbs on Nov. 25, (Mohamed Azakir/Reuters)

MundoOriente Próximo,

If there is one subject on which outgoing President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump agree, it is reaching a swift and lasting end to the war in Lebanon. Though an initial agreement is reported to have been secured, as always, the real challenge will be enforcing it. Otherwise, the countdown to the next war will begin as soon as the ink is dry.

During cease-fire negotiations, the Lebanese interim government has reaffirmed its support for U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah and redeploying the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) along the border with Israel. The problem is that the LAF — as well as the United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL), which is also likely to be asked to play a role — remain unfit to carry out the task, just as they were after the 2006 war in Lebanon.…  Seguir leyendo »

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/lebanon/lebanons-day-after

MundoOriente Próximo,

On October 8, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave the Lebanese a stark choice: rise up against Hezbollah or risk turning into Gaza. “Stand up and take your country”, he said, “before it falls into the abyss of a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza”.

Shortly before Netanyahu spoke, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had visited Lebanon in an effort to shore up Hezbollah’s morale. In the week since Israel began its full assault in late September, the group’s leadership and rank and file had been decimated by successive military operations. Thousands of Lebanese had been killed or injured and more than a million had been displaced by Israel’s heavy bombardment, including in Beirut itself, and the country’s politicians were pushing for a ceasefire.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Hezbollah flag on a building damaged by an Israeli strike, Beirut, Lebanon November 2024. Adnan Abidi / Reuters

MundoOriente Próximo, , ,

Last April, it appeared as though escalation between Israel and Iran could plunge the entire Middle East into conflict. Israel’s strikes on the Iranian consulate in Damascus prompted Iran to retaliate by launching a barrage of missiles and rockets into Israel—the first time that Iran had openly attacked the country. But after Israel responded in a relatively muted way, both countries moved on from the confrontation. Observers, too, put aside their most acute worries, comforted by the fact that both countries had shown that they had no interest in a wider war.

This conclusion, however, was premature. In September, Israel intensified its campaign against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed paramilitary group operating in Lebanon.…  Seguir leyendo »

A billboard with the image of the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Nahariya, Israel, November 2024. Violeta Santos Moura / Reuters

MundoOriente Próximo, ,

On September 27, Israel assassinated Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, by dropping between 60 to 80 bunker buster bombs on a densely populated neighborhood in Beirut’s southern suburbs. The strike killed several other Hezbollah leaders, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general, and at least 33 civilians. It injured 195 more.

This attack, others that followed, and Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon represent the ramping-up of a yearlong escalation against Hezbollah’s leadership. In that timeframe, Israel’s military has killed hundreds of militants and thousands of civilians. Among the former are at least two dozen military commanders and high-ranking officials, including Nasrallah’s anticipated successor, Hashem Safieddine.…  Seguir leyendo »

Un portrait du chef du Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, au milieu des destructions dans une zone ciblée par des frappes aériennes israéliennes à Saksakiyé, le 26 septembre. Photo d'illustration Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP

MundoOriente Próximo, ,

Les coups terribles portés au Hezbollah par Israël ont bouleversé l’échiquier politique libanais. Un parti qui avait dominé par sa milice surarmée la vie politique interne du pays et constitué un relais de puissance pour l’État iranien s’est trouvé pris, après un an d’engagement militaire déclaré « en soutien » au Hamas, au piège de sa stratégie. L’engagement militaire conduit au Sud a entraîné le Liban dans une spirale de la violence qui a culminé par un retournement de situation : le « front de soutien » est devenu le front principal. Les opérations militaires perdant de leur intensité à Gaza, c’est le Liban qui s’est trouvé en position de subir l’essentiel de l’effort de guerre israélien.…  Seguir leyendo »

Lebanese army members gather at a damaged building following an Israeli military strike in Beirut's southern suburbs on Saturday. (Wael Hamzeh/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

MundoOriente Próximo,

A company of Lebanese soldiers assigned to maintain order in this anxious wartime capital is gathered at its headquarters 100 yards from the Mediterranean. I make the blunder of asking their commander how many of his men are Shiites, Sunnis, Christians and Druze.

“We don’t talk about this in the army!” he snaps back. This is a forbidden topic for a military that is a precious symbol of national unity in a religiously fragmented country. The mission of the Lebanese Armed Forces, or the LAF, as it’s known, is to transcend sectarian identities and build a sovereign country.

So I try another question: Is the LAF ready to take control of southern Lebanon and implement the Biden administration’s plan for a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah?…  Seguir leyendo »

Pigeons flying away from the site of an Israeli air strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Lebanon, October 22, 2024. AFP/Getty Images

MundoOriente Próximo,

Once again Lebanon’s inhabitants are living through—and dying in—a conflict they are powerless to end. Western leaders like British Prime Minister Keir Starmer talk of pulling “back from the brink”, as though doing so were still a possibility. But what is this if not war? Since last October, when Hezbollah and Israel began exchanging cross-border fire in the aftermath of Hamas’s Al-Aqsa Flood attacks, more than 2,800 people have died in Lebanon. Over 13,000 more have been injured. The Lebanese government estimates that 1.3 million people—over a fifth of the population—have fled their homes, in what the caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, described as possibly “the largest displacement” in the country’s history.…  Seguir leyendo »

Des combattants du Hezbollah dans le village d’Aaramta, dans le sud du Liban, le 21 mai 2023. Photo d’archives: Anwar Amro/AFP

MundoOriente Próximo,

Après la guerre de 2006, les belligérants ont trouvé, entre eux, des arrangements appelés pudiquement les règles d’engagement par lesquels le Hezbollah se voyait reconnaître la fonction stabilisatrice de gardien de la frontière nord d’Israël. Ça n’était donc pas un prétendu équilibre de forces assuré par les armes qui garantissait la sécurité du sud du Liban. Pourtant, mû par de mauvais calculs, le parti a renoncé à sa fonction en ouvrant, le 8 octobre 2023, le front de soutien de Gaza. Un front dont l’objectif déclaré était de concentrer sur le Liban une partie de la force de destruction israélienne. Objectif atteint, hélas, au regard de l’effroyable catastrophe qui s’est abattue sur le pays.…  Seguir leyendo »

A funeral for villagers killed in an Israeli strike in Maaysrah, Lebanon, September 2024. Louisa Gouliamaki / Reuters

MundoOriente Próximo,

During the past month, Israel has surprised Hezbollah—along with Iran, its sponsor, and the rest of the world—with several high-profile intelligence and military successes. A technically sophisticated sabotage of Hezbollah’s pagers and walkie-talkies enabled Israel to cripple the organization’s communication network. What’s more, Israel claims that its airstrikes have destroyed a significant portion of Hezbollah’s missile stockpiles, which had been intended to deter another destructive cross-border war. And perhaps most consequentially, a broad Israeli assassination campaign has wiped out much of Hezbollah’s senior leadership, including its popular and charismatic leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

Israel’s tactical accomplishments in Lebanon have been widely acknowledged.…  Seguir leyendo »

Smoke billowing in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, Tyre, Lebanon, October 2024. Stringer / Reuters

MundoOriente Próximo,

The Middle East is where clever foreign policy initiatives go to die. This has been the case since at least the Cairo Conference of 1921, at which British Secretary of State for War Winston Churchill—who had to be reminded repeatedly who was Shiite and who was Sunni, and what the difference was between them—devised a plan, in the space of ten days, to ensure long-term British interests in the region. Among other things, he created the state of Iraq, to minimize the cost of occupying the area while protecting British access to India; embraced British mandatory rule over Palestine, to secure the right flank of Egypt and the Suez Canal; and strangled Syrian independence by handing the territory to the French, in exchange for French acquiescence to Britain’s control over Iraq and Palestine.…  Seguir leyendo »

Un homme tenant une béquille regarde avec désespoir les ruines des souks de Nabatiyé, pulvérisés la veille par Israël, le 13 octobre 2024. Mohammad Yassine/L’Orient-Le Jour

MundoOriente Próximo,

Cinquième guerre israélo-libanaise, troisième guerre opposant le Hezbollah à Israël sur le sol libanais, guerre de soutien à Gaza, toutes ces désignations ne font pas honneur au massacre qui achève le Liban sous les yeux du monde. Et ce massacre restera dans les mémoires comme « la guerre de trop ».

« Guerre de trop », car le Liban est déjà exsangue, arrivé à bout après un cycle infernal de cataclysmes, ayant fait le trop-plein de faillites, d’explosions, de délitements et surtout de mépris. « Guerre de trop », car le Liban est en guerre depuis trop longtemps (1975, ou bien 1969, voire 1958 diront certains).…  Seguir leyendo »

Un portrait du chef du Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, au milieu de débris dans le quartier de Roueiss, dans la banlieue sud de Beyrouth, visé par des frappes israéliennes dans la nuit, le 9 octobre 2024. Photo d’illustration/Archives AFP

MundoOriente Próximo,

Alors que la campagne israélienne au Liban se poursuit, plusieurs questions restent sans réponse. Quel est son objectif ultime ? Qu’adviendra-t-il du Hezbollah ? Et comment expliquer le changement de l’attitude américaine vis-à-vis de cette offensive ?

Le premier signe de ce changement est apparu au début du mois d’octobre, lorsque l’envoyé spécial américain Amos Hochstein a déclaré au Premier ministre sortant Nagib Mikati que l’offre qu’il avait transmise aux Libanais en juin dernier – et qui faisait plus ou moins écho à la résolution 1701 du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU – était désormais « hors de discussion », en raison de l’évolution de la situation sur le terrain.…  Seguir leyendo »

In Lebanon, We Took Pride in Our Resilience. Not Anymore.

MundoOriente Próximo

The windows of my apartment in Beirut rattled with the force of the blasts. I heard screams, I heard terror, I heard death. I haven’t properly slept for weeks now. How can anyone sleep, or even rest, with explosions around us and dread within?

For more than three weeks now, Israel has been bombing Beirut and has sent troops into the south in its pursuit of Hezbollah, the militant Lebanese political and paramilitary force that is Israel’s sworn enemy. More than 2,300 people have been killed and more than 10,000 wounded over the past year — most in the past few weeks — and some one million people displaced.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

For Israel, Lebanon is once again a killing field. Air strikes and now an ever-growing ground incursion have exacted an enormous price from Lebanese civilians. But to see Israel’s stated goal of the complete destruction of Hizbullah as a way toward peace is misguided, because it views Hizbullah through too narrow a lens. Instead there is hope, conditional on American pressure, for a durable ceasefire drawing on the plan that put an end to the war with Israel in 2006 and embodied in UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

A conservative government estimate suggests that in the current conflict 1.2m Lebanese people—nearly a quarter of the population—have been displaced.…  Seguir leyendo »

Une peluche calcinée dans la banlieue sud de Beyrouth, le 2 octobre 2024. Photo d'illustration : Mohamed Yassine.

MundoOriente Próximo,

Cela fait des semaines que je tente de te garder à l’abri des nouvelles, de mon anxiété. En vain. Tu ne cesses de me demander ce qui ne va pas. Si seulement je pouvais t’en parler. Mes nuits sont sans sommeil, mes journées sont interminables. Ici, à Paris, le monde est en perpétuel mouvement, mais le mien se fige. J’erre dans les rues, observant tous ces gens qui continuent de vivre. Je ne peux m’empêcher de me demander ce que ce serait de mener une vie normale, de ne pas se faire de mauvais sang pour ceux qu’on aime, de ne pas voir de loin son pays ravagé par les flammes.…  Seguir leyendo »

La banlieue sud de Beyrouth le 1er octobre 2024. Mohammad Yassine/L'Orient-Le Jour

MundoOriente Próximo,

« La seule chose qui permet au mal de triompher est l'inaction des hommes de bien ». Cette citation apocryphe, attribuée à Edmund Burke, prend tout son sens aujourd'hui, alors le monde semble confronté à une pénurie de ces « hommes de bien ». Le Liban subit les bombardements incessants du gouvernement israélien, des civils sont mutilés, déplacés et jetés à la rue, et ce, sans qu’aucune issue à ce drame ne soit en vue. La soi-disant lutte contre le « terrorisme » fait rage dans des quartiers densément peuplés, révélant une dure réalité : l'hypocrisie et le double-standard de l’Occident n'ont jamais été aussi flagrants.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

The ongoing war between Israel and Hizbullah is a chance, perhaps the last, for Lebanon to become a normal state again. What is needed is wholesale defeat of Hizbullah, and a new administration and army in the country’s south.

By any accepted criteria Lebanon is no longer truly a state. Its economy is ruined and food inflation rampant. According to UNICEF 90% of children do not receive regular meals. Electricity and water are available only a few hours a day. Lebanon has no president, only a perpetual caretaker. Corruption has dismantled all its institutions and its weak army lives in fear of Hizbullah, a ruthless terror organisation that is run by Iran.…  Seguir leyendo »