Pakistán

A Pakistani paramilitary ranger frisks a motorcyclist at a checkpoint a day after attacks by separatist militants on the outskirts of Quetta on 27 August 2024. Photo by BANARAS KHAN/AFP via Getty Images.

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On 25-26 August, more than 70 people – including 23 civilians – were reported killed and key infrastructure damaged in a series of attacks across Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan. The armed separatist group, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), has claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Created in the early 2000s, the BLA, together with other militant groups, has waged a decades-long campaign against Pakistan’s government which is accused of unfairly appropriating Balochistan’s rich gas and mineral reserves. Severe economic deprivation has compounded these grievances. Balochistan is the largest and least populated of Pakistan’s provinces and the most impoverished, with an estimated 70 per cent per cent of its population classed as ‘multidimensionally poor’.…  Seguir leyendo »

Un nuevo terremoto juvenil

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Seis meses atrás, el poder de la primera ministra Sheikh Hasina en Bangladés parecía inquebrantable; la Liga Awami, el partido gobernante, terminaba de ganar el cuarto período sucesivo en elecciones indiscutibles, lo que le permitía continuar ejerciendo un control total sobre las instituciones del país. Dado que los periodistas, defensores de los derechos humanos, miembros de la oposición y otros críticos enfrentaban persecuciones políticas, la prisión, el exilio y la desaparición forzosa, el continuo descenso del país hacia el autoritarismo parecía confirmado.

Pero el mes pasado, de repente, estallaron protestas estudiantiles en todo el país, impulsadas por la indignación que generó un sistema de cuotas que asigna empleos públicos a los aliados del partido gobernante.…  Seguir leyendo »

¿A India todavía le importa Pakistán?

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Entre las muchas cuestiones que enfrentará el gobierno que surja de la próxima elección general en India -que se llevará a cabo del 19 de abril al 1 de junio-, una de las más importantes será qué hacer con la relación desgastada del país con Pakistán, su vecino convulsionado. La respuesta puede ser simple: no demasiado.

Hasta hace poco, reinaba cierta esperanza de que las elecciones en ambos países en el primer semestre de 2024 pudieran crear una oportunidad para un nuevo comienzo. Pero cualquier optimismo sobre el futuro de la relación bilateral rápidamente se disipó después de la controvertida elección de Pakistán en febrero: al no habérsele permitido presentarse al popular ex primer ministro Imran Khan y a su partido Pakistán Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movimiento por la Justicia de Pakistán), la legitimidad del nuevo gobierno está ampliamente cuestionada.…  Seguir leyendo »

There’s Trouble Inside Pakistan’s Military

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For decades, Pakistan’s military has been the country’s most vital institution. Although it frequently intervened to oust elected governments, many Pakistanis saw this as salvation from the country’s blundering politicians. The army, it was thought, was the only force capable of holding the country together.

The question now is whether the generals can keep themselves together.

The military has suffered a catastrophic loss of prestige after the populist former prime minister Imran Khan directly challenged its influence. In response, Mr. Khan was ousted, jailed and his party — despite winning the most parliamentary seats in a divisive February election — was shut out of a new civilian government that took power this month with the blessing of the military leadership.…  Seguir leyendo »

People walking past a banner of Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan in Lahore, Pakistan, February 2024. Navesh Chitrakar / Reuters

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Pakistani voters want change. On February 8, they delivered a surprising rebuke to the powers that be in national elections. Independent candidates aligned with the imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) won a plurality of parliamentary seats, dealing a blow to the incumbent Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and its allies as well as to the military, which supported the PML-N in the runup to the voting. Since then, the PML-N and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) have come together to form a coalition government, with Shahbaz Sharif of the PML-N elected to serve a second term as prime minister on March 3.…  Seguir leyendo »

Supporters of former prime minister Imran Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) stage a protest against the results of the 8 February elections, in Islamabad, Pakistan on 17 February 2024. Photo by Muhammed Semih Ugurlu/Anadolu via Getty Images.

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After days of intense political bargaining following one of the most contested elections in Pakistan’s history, agreement was reached this week on a five-party minority coalition government led by former interim prime minister, Shahbaz Sharif, of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

The protracted negotiations between the centre-right PML-N and the centre-left Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) were complicated by a split mandate that failed – against all expectations – to produce a clear winning majority for the PML-N. Its credibility, and by extension the standing of the coalition, has been strongly challenged by former prime minister Imran Khan, leader of the Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), which denounced the coalition as ‘mandate thieves’.…  Seguir leyendo »

La ira de la clase media paquistaní contra el régimen militar

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Las elecciones generales paquistaníes del 8 de febrero, arruinadas por acusaciones de irregularidades generalizadas, tuvieron como resultado la paralización parlamentaria y la formación de un gobierno de coalición por los dos principales partidos dinásticos del país. De todas formas, el resultado representa una aplastante derrota para los poderosos militares del país, ya que los candidatos respaldados por el Movimiento por la Justicia de Pakistán (Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI) —partido político del ex primer ministro Imran Khan, ahora en prisión— consiguieron más escaños en el parlamento que cualquier otro bloque político, a pesar de la campaña en contra de sus votantes y partidarios que lleva ya dos años.…  Seguir leyendo »

Supporters of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) protest outside a temporary election commission office in Peshawar on February 10, 2024. (Photo by ABDUL MAJEED/AFP via Getty Images)

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The dust has yet to settle on Pakistan’s election. The official results show that independent candidates aligned to the PTI – the party of Imran Khan – have performed better than anticipated despite Khan’s arrest and conviction. This belies the initial belief that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) – the party of the Sharif brothers (Nawaz and Shehbaz) – would lead the next government.

The PTI and PML-N both claim victory, but neither has yet secured the requisite numbers to form a government on its own. This increases the probability that a messy coalition government is formed after an extended period of horse-trading.…  Seguir leyendo »

‘Candidates loyal to Imran Khan stunned outside observers – and even Pakistan’s political elite – by winning the most seats in last week’s election.’ Photograph: Abdul Majeed/AFP/Getty Images

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Since the founding of Pakistan in 1947, not a single prime minister has served the full five-year term. If this fact betokens a country marked by instability and sudden changes in the political mood then last week’s remarkable elections have done little to change that reputation. The electoral analysts were proved wrong, as candidates loyal to the imprisoned former prime minister, Imran Khan, stunned outside observers – and even the country’s political elite – by winning the most seats. One thing can now be predicted with confidence: a new period of political turmoil.

Nearly 60 million people turned out to vote on 8 February.…  Seguir leyendo »

Pakistanis Like Me Are Losing Faith in Democracy

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This is a critical week for Pakistanis. On Thursday we will vote in federal and provincial elections, with the future of our democracy in question. We are not the only country facing such a moment this year. National elections will be held in more than 60 countries, which account for nearly half the global population.

But I suspect that millions of voters around the world are, like me, wondering whether they even believe in the promise of democracy anymore. Pakistan has never been able to get it right; next door in India, the world’s biggest democracy, elections a couple of months from now are likely to extend the grip of Narendra Modi’s Hindu-supremacist government, and Donald Trump is on the upswing again in America, which votes in November.…  Seguir leyendo »

Flags of Pakistan's political parties are displayed for sale at a market in Lahore on 13 January 2024 ahead of the country's general elections. Photo by ARIF ALI/AFP via Getty Images.

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Pakistan faces formidable economic and political challenges, but without a credible result in the elections scheduled for 8 February it stands little chance of overcoming them. The repercussions could extend beyond Pakistan’s borders, affecting regional stability and increasing pressure on Western governments as a growing number of Pakistanis leave their country in search of a more secure future abroad.

Questions about the integrity of the polls come amid widespread allegations of interference in the electoral process by Pakistan’s powerful military establishment, said to be keen to engineer its preferred outcome.

The military is reported to be working in concert with the judiciary to keep former prime minister – and its former protégé – Imran Khan, out of the elections.…  Seguir leyendo »

A local resident shows a mountain at the Koh-e-Sabz area of Pakistan's south-west Baluchistan province where Iran launched an airstrike, on 18 January 2024. Photo by BANARAS KHAN/AFP via Getty Images.

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A local resident shows a mountain at the Koh-e-Sabz area of Pakistan's south-west Baluchistan province where Iran launched an airstrike, on 18 January 2024. Photo by BANARAS KHAN/AFP via Getty Images.

The recent escalation of tensions between Iran and Pakistan has fuelled concerns of a potential spillover of conflict from the Middle East into South Asia. Events in recent months have highlighted Iran’s role as a volatile geopolitical actor through its support for regional proxies like Hamas and the Houthis.

But on 16 January, Iran took direct action and carried out attacks on alleged strongholds of the militant group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) in the Pakistani province of Baluchistan, which borders Iran.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Pakistan’s next general election, scheduled for February 8th, is unlikely to resolve problems rooted in the country’s troubled history. Carved out from the Muslim-majority portions of British India, Pakistan has spent the best part of its life competing with India. In the process, the country has developed nuclear weapons and boasts the world’s sixth-largest standing army. But it has faced repeated economic failures and persistently poor human-development indicators.

Pakistan’s greatest failure, however, has been in developing a workable political system. For more than two decades after its creation in 1947, the country struggled to agree on a constitution and failed to hold general elections.…  Seguir leyendo »

Children at a camp for Afghan refugees in Nowshera, Pakistan, November 2023. Fayaz Aziz / Reuters

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The Pakistani state is notoriously lackadaisical in its habits of governance, but it has acted with surprising vigor in recent months. In October, the country’s military-backed caretaker government announced that all “illegal foreigners”—a thinly disguised reference to millions of Afghan refugees who reside in Pakistan—were to leave the country by November 1 or face arrest and expulsion. In theory, not every Afghan refugee will be affected, at least for now: one million Afghans have renewable permits that allow them to stay in the country, while an estimated 800,000 hold so-called Afghan Citizen Cards that grant them the temporary right to stay but not the full protections due to refugees under international law.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Today Pakistan is being ruled by caretaker governments at both the federal level and provincial level. These administrations are constitutionally illegal because elections were not held within 90 days of parliamentary assemblies being dissolved.

The public is hearing that elections will supposedly be held on February 8th. But having been denied the same in two provinces, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, over the past year—despite a Supreme Court order last March that those votes should be held within three months—they are right to be sceptical about whether the national vote will take place.

The country’s election commission has been tainted by its bizarre actions.…  Seguir leyendo »

An Indian Border Security Force soldier (center left) shakes hands with a Pakistan Rangers soldier during a ceremony to celebrate Pakistan’s 75th Independence Day at the Wagah border post between the two countries on Aug. 14, 2022. Narinder Nanu/AFP via Getty Images

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As Pakistan lurches from one crisis to another, it needs a fundamental rethink of its geopolitical and economic strategy. Without it, any International Monetary Fund program—the most recent being a “stand-by arrangement” for around $3 billion, approved on July 12—only buys some time before the next cataclysm.

Pakistan must start putting sustainable and inclusive economic growth above all else, especially its elite-focused policies that have created a cycle of profligacy and austerity. Average annual economic growth between 2010 and 2022 has been lackluster, around 4 percent, and has been accompanied by a rise in Pakistan’s total debt as a share of its GDP, from 55 percent to 76 percent.…  Seguir leyendo »

Pakistani Prime Minister Anwaar ul-Haq Kakar at the U.N. General Assembly last week in New York. (Bryan R. Smith/AFP/Getty Images)

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The war in Ukraine and rising tensions with China are reshaping many U.S. relationships, and Pakistan is no exception. Pakistan’s caretaker prime minister told me that his country is focusing on its own interests and does not want to choose sides in the great power competition. But the lack of real attention to the U.S.-Pakistan relationship threatens to drive Pakistan further into China’s orbit.

Anwar ul-Haq Kakar became temporary leader of the government in Islamabad in August. His main mission is to help ensure that Pakistan holds new elections, which have been tentatively scheduled for January. (This being Pakistan, the military is always suspected to have the final say.)…  Seguir leyendo »

Imran Khan, then prime minister of Pakistan, at a military parade in Islamabad, March 2019. Akhtar Soomro / Reuters

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The ultimate truth of Pakistan’s politics is deceptively simple: power flows through the barrel of the gun. Regardless of who holds the reigns of the government in Islamabad, the military has always been and continues to be the de facto arbiter of politics in the country. Short of a coup, the generals have typically maintained their supremacy and control by cobbling together “king’s parties”—alliances of convenience and opportunity among the country’s politicians—to counter any civilian challengers. The military puts these concocted factions in power by engineering elections. It then ruthlessly discards its erstwhile partners if they fail to toe the line.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Pakistan is adrift in a sea of troubles. Its economy is in a tailspin. GDP growth in the past year shriveled to only 0.29 percent. Annual inflation has soared to 36 percent, and annual inflation in food prices stands at a whopping 48 percent. The country faces a balance-of-payments crisis, and negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over a bailout have stalled. Catastrophic floods in 2022 have forced the country, until recently a wheat exporter, to import wheat.

Compounding the economic misery is the ongoing security threat posed by the Pakistani Taliban, a militant group that has grown increasingly brazen in its attacks on civilian and military targets across the country.…  Seguir leyendo »

A military parade in Islamabad, Pakistan, March 2019. Akhtar Soomro / Reuters

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In the summer of 2021, the world learned that China was dramatically expanding its nuclear arsenal. Satellite imagery showed Beijing building as many as 300 new ballistic missile silos. The Pentagon now projects that China’s stockpile of nuclear weapons, which had for years rested in the low hundreds, could spike to 1,500 warheads by 2035, confirming suspicions that Beijing has decided to join Russia and the United States in the front rank of nuclear powers.

Security experts are only beginning to sort through the implications of China’s nuclear breakout. They would do well to consider Ashley Tellis’s new book, Striking Asymmetries, which assesses the implications of Beijing’s actions from the vantage point of the rivalries between South Asia’s three nuclear powers: China, India, and Pakistan.…  Seguir leyendo »