Procesos electorales (Continuación)

MundoOriente Próximo, ,

This time the Islamist revolution was peaceful and power was captured through the ballot box, but the anti-Islamists overturned the will of the people with the backing of the military.

The echoes of the violent counter-revolution will reverberate through much of the Arab and Islamic worlds. Egypt is a pivotal state and what happens inside its borders matters well outside it. It is not the Islamists who have warned that Islam is not compatible with democracy. Rather, their opponents have demonstrated that democracy cannot be reconciled with political Islam even when it is peaceful.

In December 1991, Islamists won the first round of elections in Algeria and were poised to win the second round in early 1992, but were prevented from taking office and exercising power by the military which stepped in.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Varios observadores, incluido The New York Times, se han mostrado exultantes por la victoria, en las recientes elecciones presidenciales, de un candidato “moderado”, Hasan Rohaní. Opinan que podemos estar ante una nueva era en la política iraní.

Tal vez, pero tal vez no.

Cuando hablamos de Irán, aferrarnos a la esperanza en lugar de guiarnos por la experiencia es ser unos ilusos.

No olvidemos tres hechos.

En primer lugar, para ser candidato a la presidencia, Rohaní tuvo que superar la prueba ideológica del líder supremo, Ali Jameneí y su entorno. De decenas de aspirantes a candidatos, solo seis entraron en la papeleta.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente PróximoInternacionalTerrorismo Internacional,

The election of Hassan Rowhani as Iran’s new president has created a sense that there are new possibilities of progress on the nuclear issue; we need to respond, but warily. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, allowed Mr. Rowhani to win the election recognizing that he had run against current Iranian policies that have isolated the country and invited economically disastrous sanctions. But it isn’t clear why Mr. Khamenei allowed such an outcome, and here are some theories that have been proposed:

He believes that Mr. Rowhani’s election could provide a safety valve for the great discontent within Iran.

He believes that Mr.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Iranians closed the page on the tumultuous eight-year tenure of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when they went to the polls on June 14 to pick a new president. In a national election marked by tremendous fervor and massive turnout (some 75 percent of Iran’s roughly 50 million eligible voters are estimated to have participated), the victor was Hasan Rowhani, a soft-spoken cleric widely billed as a “moderate” among Iran’s field of presidential contenders.

Predictably, Mr. Rowhani’s election has fanned hopes among many of a more pragmatic tilt to Iranian politics — and of a new potential partner in Tehran for the long-running international negotiations over the Iranian regime’s stubborn nuclear effort.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaMundoOriente Próximo, , ,

Para un observador occidental, la política de Oriente Medio ha vuelto a estar totalmente transtornada. Los ulemas teocráticos permitieron la elección de Hasán Ruhaní, quien en su primer discurso como Presidente electo anunció que la suya es “la victoria de la sensatez, la moderación y la conciencia sobre el fanatismo y el mal comportamiento”.

Los iraníes, al parecer sorprendidos de que el candidato al que una mayoría de ellos había respaldado (frente a seis intransigentes) hubiera ganado, salieron en masa a las calles a gritar victoria “para el pueblo”. Desde luego, fueron unas elecciones cuidadosamente controladas: todos los candidatos que podrían haber desafiado de verdad la autoridad del Dirigente Supremo Ayatolá Alí Jamenei quedaron descalificados de antemano, pero, dentro de esos límites, el Gobierno permitió el recuento de los votos del pueblo.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

La victoria de Hassan Rohani en la elección presidencial iraní fue un hecho totalmente inesperado. Es probable que su triunfo en primera ronda (después de una campaña que empezó con ocho candidatos) haya sido una sorpresa bastante grande incluso para el Líder Supremo, el ayatolá Alí Jamenei. A partir de este resultado, las negociaciones con Irán acerca de su programa nuclear, lo mismo que la guerra civil en Siria, pueden adquirir una nueva dinámica. Es que las cosas en Oriente Próximo son así: uno nunca sabe qué puede haber a la vuelta de la esquina.

Este año se cumple el décimo aniversario del inicio de negociaciones sobre el programa nuclear iraní entre los ministerios de asuntos exteriores de Irán y de un triunvirato europeo formado por Alemania, Francia y el Reino Unido.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

La elección de Hasan Rohani a la presidencia iraní ha levantado el entusiasmo de los iraníes y ha sido bien acogida en el resto del mundo. Antes de los comicios, los electores iraníes podían esperar lo peor: la lista de candidatos autorizados a presentarse para suceder a Mahmud Ahmadineyad había sido controlada estrechamente y sólo se podía escoger entre un abanico extremadamente limitado de opciones.

Los iraníes aspiran a un cambio. En un país en el que dos tercios de la población tienen menos de 35 años, la rigidez del sistema es cada vez menos tolerado. Los iraníes están descontentos por la falta de libertades políticas y sociales.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Is Iran about to change? Is there a chance that the conflict with the West over Iran’s nuclear program will now end?

The June 14 presidential election resulted in victory for Hassan Rouhani, a man many are labeling a “moderate” and even a “reformer.” Rouhani, a Shiite cleric, has made mostly conciliatory statements since becoming president-elect.

Undoubtedly, Rouhani can be labeled a moderate only by the standards of the Islamic Republic of Iran. He is a cleric who has been a regime insider, a member of the “Expediency Council” and has very close relations with the most conservative among the regime powerful, including the Supreme Leader.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Si el sha de Irán hubiera sido un buen demócrata, un hombre que hubiera amado y respetado a su pueblo, habría evitado a este país la dramática república islámica. Pero la mayoría de los líderes se preocupan prioritariamente de su ego, de sus propios intereses, y se esfuerzan más por mantenerse en el poder que por servir a su pueblo. Un viejo problema que no sólo afecta a Irán. Pero el hecho es que 35 años después de la caída del sha y de la llegada triunfal de Jomeini, Irán sufre y vive en una lamentable esquizofrenia. Porque más de la mitad de los iraníes ya no quieren este régimen y desafían las prohibiciones para poder vivir de otra manera.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

El pueblo iraní ha hablado y ha sido escuchado. Más del 70% de los electores acudió a las urnas para elegir al más moderado de los ocho candidatos. El Consejo de los Guardianes, órgano encargado de aceptar o no a los candidatos presidenciales, había vetado el resto de candidaturas. La inesperada victoria de Hasan Rohaní despierta esperanzas, tanto para la diplomacia como para la economía iraní, muy dañada por las sanciones.

Esta apertura es sin duda importante, pero las posibilidades de cambio tras la victoria de Rohaní no son, ni mucho menos, ilimitadas ni seguras. Recordemos que el nuevo presidente iraní no liderará el país a solas: el líder supremo Alí Jamenei sigue siendo el mismo.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Iranians went to the polls on Friday in what turned out to be — against all expectations — a peaceful, if not entirely fair, presidential election.

The international media, analysts and even Western government officials had dismissed the election in advance as a farce, with the outcome to be determined by only one man — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — or saw it as a tightly controlled contest among a half-dozen handpicked, indistinguishable candidates servile to the supreme leader’s wishes.

Many Iranians, too, initially saw their elections in much the same way.

But people have a funny way of defying expectations, sometimes even their own.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The stunning election of a pragmatic former Iranian nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rowhani, has offered the Obama administration a once-in-a-lifetime chance to end the atomic stalemate with Iran.

In the West, Mr. Rowhani is widely seen as a turbaned politico from inside the establishment. One of us has worked for him directly, as his deputy in nuclear talks. The other has conducted research at the think tank he runs. We can attest that he is wary of a purely ideological approach to foreign policy and is driven by more than simple expediency in pursuit of the national interest. After seeing the nuclear deal he was attempting to negotiate with the European Union fall apart in 2005, Mr.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

El 17 de junio, en su primera conferencia de prensa como Presidente electo del Irán, Hasán Ruhaní, abrió pocas vías nuevas en las relaciones de la República Islámica con Occidente. Sobre la política nuclear, dijo que la “época de la suspensión ha[bía] concluido”: el Irán no aceptará la suspensión del enriquecimiento de uranio en negociaciones futuras, pero procurará mostrar más transparencia sobre sus actividades nucleares para crear confianza internacional. Además, el Irán acogería con beneplácito nuevas negociaciones con los Estados Unidos, si éstos dejaran de intentar inmiscuirse en los asuntos internos del Irán y abandonasen su “actitud intimidatoria”.

Ninguna de esas afirmaciones es nueva.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Hassan Rowhani’s election as the new Iranian president augurs well not only for that country but also for a world tired of the senseless rhetoric from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

When, at a campaign speech, Rowhani stated, “We have no option rather than moderation,” he was also defining what will be one of the main characteristics of his government: a more conciliatory approach to the world and an end to the country’s international isolation.

Rowhani has a special appeal to the country’s youth — two-thirds of Iran’s 70 million people are under 35 — whose wishes for a freer, more open country were dashed under Ahmadinejad.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

By electing Hassan Rowhani, the moderate candidate, to be its next president, the Iranian people have in effect reached a provisional compromise with the nation's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the ultraconservative establishment.

At first glance, Rowhani's landslide victory might seem baffling. Why should an otherwise subordinate and overly cautious candidate, who was once Iran's lead nuclear negotiator, generate so much enthusiasm and support among a beleaguered public? Rowhani largely kept out of the postelection upheavals in 2009, and his campaign platform did not offer anything remotely resembling a reformist agenda. To the extent that he challenged any establishment views, his criticisms and proposals were mainly directed against the irascible style and tactless temperament of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, an easy target.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The recent presidential election in Iran proved that the Islamic Republic’s instinct for self-preservation trumps its ideology. Hassan Rouhani, the current representative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the Supreme National Security Council and former head nuclear negotiator, won the election in the first round, a total surprise for both international observers and domestic critics of the regime. Despite his establishment credentials and his status as a cleric, Rouhani was not regarded as Khamenei’s favorite candidate. Saeed Jalili, the chief nuclear negotiator; Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, former chief of the national police and current mayor of Tehran; and Ali Akbar Velayati, former minister of foreign affairs and Khamenei’s advisor on international affairs, were expected to have Khamenei’s support in this election.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The election of Hassan Rouhani as Iran’s next president has prompted two sorts of reactions among U.S. officials and Iran analysts. Some see in Rouhani’s victory a reformist resurgence and are urging the Obama administration to reach out in an effort to “strengthen” him, much as the Clinton administration sought to do after the election of Mohammad Khatami in 1997. Others see a wily trick by Iran’s supreme leader, seeking to slough off the pressure of sanctions by presenting a smiling face to the world and buy more time with diplomacy while expanding Iran’s nuclear activities in the background.

The challenge for the Obama administration is that it cannot yet know which interpretation is correct.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

As soon as the results of the Iranian elections were announced, the world’s media proclaimed that a “moderate and reformist” cleric, Hasan Rowhani, would become the new president of Iran.

Not so. Mr. Rowhani is every bit as brutal and deceitful as the clerical regime that has murderously cracked down on its people for decades.

For 33 years, the mullahs who dominate Iran have masterfully played leaders of the West as fools over the regime’s illicit nuclear weapons program. Now with the election of Mr. Rowhani, which was preordained by the supreme leader, they are going to try it again.

The president-elect, a Shiite Islamic scholar, attended religious seminaries in the city of Qom, the hotbed of radical clerics.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

As Iranians vote on Friday they are faced with a choice of six potential presidents, two having dropped out of the running in the final few days. One of these was the last overtly reformist candidate, Mohammad Reza Aref, who withdrew in favour of a moderate, Hassan Rouhani. But the election campaign has not caught fire in the way it did in 2009, when the Green movement arose and seemed for a time to be on the point of transforming the Islamic Republic. That is no accident.

Televised debates last week revolved around the economy and the nuclear question. With unemployment at more than 20%, inflation well over 40%, Iran defying the US and its allies over the nuclear question and suffering sanctions that amount to an economic blockade, these debates could have been fierce.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Iran's presidential election on June 14 will be neither free nor fair. The candidates on the ballot have been preselected in a politically motivated vetting process that has little purpose other than ensuring the election of a compliant president who will be loyal to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Regardless of the outcome of the vote, the most urgent challenge for both the next president and Ayatollah Khamenei will be to confront a rising tide of discontent resulting from a rapidly deteriorating economic situation.

The outside world is primarily focused on whether the election will signal a shift in the Iranian regime’s stand on the nuclear issue.…  Seguir leyendo »