Procesos electorales (Continuación)

MundoOriente Próximo,

Despite yesterday's tumultuous events, millions of Egyptians will nevertheless head to the polls this weekend to pick their first post-revolution president. Egypt's constitutional court has invalidated the recent parliamentary election but has allowed Hosni Mubarak's former PM, Ahmed Shafiq, to continue to stand for president . As the only other remaining candidate, I alone represent an unequivocal departure from the old regime that was toppled by the revolution of 2011.

I was nominated and elected by constituents – parties, groups, and individuals – who marched the streets of Egypt calling for change. I was jailed by the old regime. I belong to the middle classes that were sold out by the old establishment.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica,

Dicen que las elecciones no se ganan ni se pierden: se explican. Y se explican en muy buena medida por los costos que suponen para el partido en el poder, justo lo que parece estarle ocurriendo al Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), la formación que ha gobernado México durante estos años, y que está contra las cuerdas de cara a las presidenciales del próximo 1 de julio.

Para tratar de entender el fenómeno, muchos observadores de la política mexicana se preguntan por qué un partido de innegable tradición democrática como el PAN, que logró una alternancia histórica tras la prolongada hegemonía del PRI en el siglo XXI, puede ser tan rápidamente relevado por el mismo partido al que destronó apenas 12 años atrás.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión Europea,

“Politics will eventually be replaced by imagery. The politician will be only too happy to abdicate in favor of his image, because the image will be much more powerful than he could ever be.” Were he viewing the political scene in France, all that Marshall McLuhan, the prophet of the irresistible rise of image, would add to this prescient remark is: “Or she could ever be.”

Marine Le Pen is the latest victim, or beneficiary, in a French firefight over images. During a recent concert in Tel Aviv, as Madonna launched into her song “Nobody Knows Me, ” a series of images flashed across the huge screen behind her, including shots of Hu Jintao and Sarah Palin.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica,

Si la historia fuera predecible muchos momentos de tensión, crímenes, barbaridades y sorpresas nunca hubieran sucedido.

En las elecciones mexicanas siempre ha podido, puede y podrá pasar de todo. Lo que no estaba claro es si pese a tener todos los datos de corrupción, conocer los nombres de los corruptos, ver cómo los corruptos suben los datos de corrupción propia a Facebook, padecer el fracaso y el colapso total del sistema judicial mexicano y la impunidad, era posible esperar una verdadera reacción de alguien.

Resulta difícil saber qué pasó por las mentes de los nietos de Mubarak aquél día de enero del año pasado cuando se pusieron a jugar con sus teléfonos inteligentes para pedir libertad.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

After the first competitive elections in Egypt's history, many Egyptians find themselves straddling the divide between the deposed regime of Hosni Mubarak and its 84-year-old Islamist adversary, the Muslim Brotherhood. Polarization has long been a problem for Egypt. Now there is more of it than ever.

The two candidates who received the most votes will face off in the second round in mid-June. The Brotherhood's candidate, Mohamed Morsi, is trying to get liberals and leftists to hold their noses and vote for him. Ahmed Shafiq, the last prime minister of the old regime, promises to save Egypt from the "dark forces" of Islamism.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, ,

On the surface, the first round of the Egyptian presidential election seemed to show that the Muslim Brotherhood and the remnants of the Mubarak regime are locked in mortal combat for the political soul of Egypt -- as Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi faces pro-military candidate Ahmed Shafik in a second round of voting in June.

Buying into this simplistic formula, however, would be a total misreading of the far more complex picture. To understand the political reality of Egypt and the strengths and weaknesses of the major political forces operating in the country, one needs to look more closely at all of the electoral results.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoÁfrica,

Las autoridades habían prometido una primavera propiamente argelina, tranquila, sin sobresaltos ni violencias. En el cartel oficial de las elecciones, un árbol con la bandera argelina brota de una urna electoral, rodeado de un campo de flores. En Sétif, lugar de una terrible matanza colonial, el presidente Abdelaziz Buteflika llamó a votar masivamente el 8 de mayo, aprovechando los tres días de reflexión, al tiempo que anunciaba, para gran sorpresa, que “había llegado el final de su generación” y la hora de que “los jóvenes asumieran sus responsabilidades”.

Una serie de novedades animaban a creer en un cambio pacífico: la cuota femenina, la misión de observación de la UE, urnas transparentes en lugar de cartón, la supervisión judicial, la legalización de partidos, la reaparición del Frente de Fuerzas Socialistas FFS y de Yaballah, etc.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, , ,

When it comes to the Muslim Brotherhood, even the irreligious evince a sudden interest in what lies within the inner reaches of the Islamists' souls. Are they really democrats? What do they really believe? It is time for analysts to leave those questions to a higher authority. For now, it is much more important to ask what they intend to do and what they could do in office.

If balloting is free in the run-off in mid-June, Brotherhood presidential candidate Mohammed Morsi is the favourite to beat Ahmed Shafiq, President Mubarak's last prime minister. If that happens, Egypt's major democratic institutions, the parliament and the presidency, will be in Islamist hands.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica,

Cuando supe que Mitt Romney había llevado a cabo, a los 18 años, actos de matonismo contra un compañero de curso, lo primero que me vino a la memoria, como seguramente le sucedió a muchos otros lectores de la noticia, fueron mis propias experiencias con este tipo de asalto, como víctima y también como practicante.

Ninguna de ellas alcanzó la brutalidad con que obró el presunto candidato presidencial republicano, pero abren una eventual ventana sobre este tipo de incidente, la posibilidad de entender quizás sus alcances.

Fue en 1953 y en Nueva York que adquirí, a los 11 años de edad, conciencia de lo que significa el bullying, palabra de moda ahora en Estados Unidos para denunciar las agresiones malignas que sufren jóvenes de sus semejantes en los lugares públicos.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa, ,

Another war is brewing in the Balkans. Recently, Serbia’s voters elected a new president. Ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic narrowly defeated the liberal, pro-European Union incumbent, Boris Tadic. Mr. Nikolic’s victory means the Balkans may be plunged into ethnic violence again.

Mr. Nikolic won on his appeal as a crusading populist and hard-line Serbian nationalist. He campaigned against the rampant corruption and economic mismanagement that characterized Mr. Tadic’s government. Serbia faces an economic and social crisis. It is plagued by massive high unemployment, stagnating growth, soaring debt and rising poverty. Mr. Nikolic vowed to tackle the country’s problems and impose honest government. In particular, he has pledged to stand up to Serbia’s venal ruling class - a promise that struck a chord with many Serbs.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The apartment blocks on my street in downtown Cairo have accommodated many cycles of Egypt's political tumult in the past 18 months. A stone's throw from Tahrir Square, they have been enveloped in teargas, pockmarked by Molotov cocktails, pressed into use as urban barricades by both revolutionaries and pro-Mubarak militias, and provided the backdrop for some of the post-Mubarak military generals' most violent assaults on the citizens they swore to protect. They gaze over the gardens of the Egyptian Museum – a regular home for one of the army's pop-up torture and detention centres where those still daring to rally for meaningful change have been brutally acquainted with the realities of a junta-curated "transition" to democratic rule.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, , , ,

As Egyptians prepare for their milestone presidential election this week, thousands of activist youths who spearheaded the revolution -- the very ones who made the election possible -- will not be casting a vote. Instead, they are in prison, facing military trials.

On May 4, more than 350 protesters, including 16 women and 10 children, were arrested near Defense Ministry in the Abbaseya neighborhood of Cairo, adding to the approximately 12,000 political prisoners detained since the Revolution.

The Abbaseya protesters fortunate enough to be released from detention have revealed horrific stories of torture and abuse at the hands of military officers.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica,

The Mexican version of the old Soviet Politburo is poised to make a comeback, with potentially disastrous consequences for North America. In 2000, the world hailed the end of more than 70 years of rule by the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, as a sign of democratic transition. Today, the PRI's presidential candidate in the July 1 election, Enrique Peña Nieto, threatens to bring back the authoritarian ways of the past.

The PRI has not cleaned up its act or modernized over the last 12 years. To the contrary, it has deepened its networks of corruption and illegality in the territories it still controls.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

A few days ago, I watched a debate between Amr Moussa and Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, two of the leading candidates among the 13 running for president of Egypt. This stunning debate went on for more than four hours and was watched by millions of Egyptians and other Arabs. Contrary to the perception around the world that Egypt is inexorably sinking into chaos and intolerance, this debate in many ways reflects the hope for a new Egypt following last year’s revolution.

From the time of Ramses II, the strong pharaoh who ruled Egypt thousands of years ago, until last year when Hosni Mubarak’s reign ended, Egyptians were never able to witness a debate over who should take over the democratic reins in the highest office of the land.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión Europea,

Uno de los resultados de las elecciones francesas más comentado por los medios y los analistas ha sido el ascenso del Front National hasta obtener un porcentaje de voto que ha sido calificado de histórico, de ruptura de su techo político o de aldabonazo electoral. Lo cierto es que, si comparamos el 17,9% de los sufragios que ha obtenido en estas elecciones con el 10% de 2007, el avance parece merecer tales calificativos.

Sin embargo, si ampliamos la perspectiva, podemos comprobar que el panorama cambia considerablemente ya que ese 17,9% no queda tan lejos del 14% de 1988, del 15% de 1995 o el 17% de la primera vuelta de 2002.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión Europea,

La elección presidencial ha revelado algo latente en Francia: una profunda crisis de confianza de la mayoría del pueblo ante las elites que lo representan. Más allá de la victoria de François Hollande, que no es una victoria del programa del Partido Socialista, y de la derrota de Nicolas Sarkozy, que es sobre todo un rechazo a su persona, debemos extraer tres lecciones. En primer lugar, la emergencia, en la primera vuelta, de un voto de protesta, tribunicio, que recuerda a los años 50, 60 y 70 del siglo pasado, cuando el Partido Comunista Francés representaba a toda una parte de las clases populares explotadas sin esperanza alguna de acceder al poder.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica,

Es comúnmente aceptado que los resultados de las elecciones estadounidenses dependen en buena medida de la situación de la economía. Si ello es así, debería ser fácil hacer pronósticos. Pero no es el caso. No sabemos en qué situación estará la economía en noviembre. Según algunos pronósticos, crecerá este año un 2,5%-2,8%, bastante más que en Europa o Japón. Pero no es seguro pues podrían interponerse todo tipo de factores y circunstancias.

¿Quién debería llevar las riendas del país en tal coyuntura? Según la mayoría de sondeos de opinión, el presidente Obama le lleva de 4 a 6 puntos porcentuales de ventaja a Romney.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión Europea,

The clear winner of the recent Greek elections is Syriza, a coalition of leftwing organisations active for several years. The fascist Golden Dawn party has also made stunning gains but its rise, disturbing as it might be, is neither the main outcome of the elections, nor yet a major threat to Greek society. Political momentum belongs to Syriza. If it gets its act together, it could help resolve the crisis and give a boost to the European anti-austerity movement.

The two staple parties of Greek government – Pasok and New Democracy – have been trounced for bringing the country to this pass over four decades, and for implementing the bailout agreements.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión Europea,

Forty-Five years ago, on April 21, 1967, a right-wing group of colonels seized power in Greece. Tanks rolled into the center of Athens; politicians, artists and journalists were arrested; and the ensuing military dictatorship lasted for seven years.

Decades after the restoration of democracy, we are again hearing echoes of the junta and its aftermath. Nationalistic slogans are uttered by right and left. The rising phoenix — the colonels’ emblem — has been featured on some candidate posters for the far-right-wing party Golden Dawn, and its leader, Nikos Michaloliakos, has glorified the period. It would be easy to dismiss him as a fringe voice were it not for the fact that his party gained parliamentary representation in last weekend’s elections for the first time.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente PróximoEuropaUnión Europea, ,

In the run-up to the French presidential election, the Iranian newspaper Tehran Emrooz wrote that “emphasis must be given to the advantages of a victory by François Hollande.”

Widely reported in the French press and blog world, the comment came from a publication described as run by the mayor of Tehran, who is reportedly close to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Some French bloggers treated it as Loony Tunes stuff from Mullahland. But the editorial had a matter-of-fact, non-hysterical tone.

“A victory will lead to a softening of Paris’ policies toward Iran,” it said. “France under Sarkozy was the strong voice in the European Union against Iran.…  Seguir leyendo »