Relaciones Transatlánticas

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrives back at Downing Street in London on November 10, 2020 after chairing the weekly cabinet meeting held at the nearby Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP) (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images)

The UK government will have to work hard to insert itself into the Biden team’s plans for a renewed transatlantic partnership as many of the new US administration’s priorities, such as sanctions towards Russia, trade relations with China, taxation, and regulation of US technology companies will be US–EU negotiations with the UK excluded.

A US–UK trade deal also now appears less likely in the near term, and any failure to reach a compromise with the EU on the status of Northern Ireland could have severe repercussions for relations with the US, given the warnings from the president-elect.

But opportunities certainly exist, as both governments want to see a successful climate summit in Glasgow in November 2021, both want to bring Iran back into a negotiation over its nuclear programme, and both want to strengthen NATO especially in cybersecurity where the UK is a world leader.…  Seguir leyendo »

La agenda de la reunificación transatlántica

A lo largo de cuatro años, la administración del Presidente estadounidense Donald Trump demostró que le importaban poco las alianzas. Sin embargo, persiste la realidad de que la colaboración entre EE. UU. y Alemania es indispensable y seguirá siéndolo. Las negociaciones “2+4” que lograron volver a unir a Alemania del Este y Alemania Occidental tras décadas de separación por la Cortina de Hierro son apenas un ejemplo de cómo los estadounidenses y los alemanes han permanecido hombro a hombro durante el periodo posterior a la Segunda Guerra Mundial.

Como en toda relación, ha habido altibajos, y la presidencia de Trump marca un punto bajo casi sin precedentes.…  Seguir leyendo »

El próximo 3 de noviembre Estados Unidos se juega su futuro en una de las elecciones más cruciales de su historia reciente. La cifra récord de votos anticipados ―alrededor de 80 millones de ciudadanos ya habían votado este jueves― da una dimensión de la trascendencia de la contienda electoral entre el actual presidente, el republicano Donald Trump, y el candidato demócrata, Joe Biden. Los siete directores de los medios que conforman la Alianza de Periódicos Líderes en Europa (LENA, por sus siglas en inglés) describen la importancia que tendrá para sus respectivos países el resultado de los comicios.
Maurizio Molinari, director de La Repubblica (Italia)

El resultado electoral tendrá un fuerte impacto en Europa e Italia por tres razones convergentes.…  Seguir leyendo »

Entre el creciente drama sino-norteamericano y la persistente crisis del COVID-19, el mundo sin duda está atravesando un cambio histórico fundamental. Estructuras aparentemente inmutables que se crearon a lo largo de muchas décadas de repente exhiben un alto grado de maleabilidad, o simplemente están desapareciendo.

En el pasado remoto, los acontecimientos sin precedentes de hoy habrían puesto a la gente en guardia ante señales de un inminente apocalipsis. Además de la pandemia y de las tensiones geopolíticas, el mundo también enfrenta la crisis climática, la balcanización de la economía global y las disrupciones tecnológicas de amplio alcance generadas por la digitalización y la inteligencia artificial.…  Seguir leyendo »

Fresh allegations of Russian meddling in the upcoming US Presidential election shine a harsh spotlight on the dangerous deadlock between the nuclear-tipped powers. In a reprise of 2016, Moscow is apparently pushing hard for Donald Trump to win the White House. But is a Trump second term really in the Kremlin’s best interest? Or would a Joe Biden win actually be the more pragmatic outcome for Russia?

On the surface, a stable Biden presidency, including a strong, no-nonsense Vice President Kamala Harris, would seem unpalatable to Moscow. Biden is well-acquainted with Russian President Vladimir Putin from before and during his tenure as vice president in the Obama administration.…  Seguir leyendo »

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, speaks to Donald Trump during the G7 meeting in Quebec, 2018. Photograph: Reuters

Making his celebrated return from exile in April 1917 to take up the reins of the Russian revolution, Vladimir Lenin caught a ferry to Sweden from Sassnitz, a small Baltic coastal town in north-east Germany, before taking the train to Finland station in Petrograd, the city that became Leningrad and is now St Petersburg. Sassnitz’s moment in the historical spotlight was fleeting. Now, thanks to Donald Trump’s blundering buddies, it’s back there again.

A trio of Republican senators – Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton and Ron Johnson – are threatening to wreak terrible punishment on Sassnitz, its elected officials and residents who make their living from the port.…  Seguir leyendo »

Illustration by The New York Times; photographs by Erin Schaff/The New York Times, Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times and Michael Sohn/Associated Press

Last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a speech that many likened to a declaration of a Cold War against China. Gone, he said, was “the old paradigm of blind engagement” that had prevailed since the Nixon administration. “If we want to have a free 21st century,” he continued, “the free world must triumph over this new tyranny.”

Mr. Pompeo’s speech made plain that the relationship between the two superpowers had reached a nadir in recent months, strained by escalating rounds of diplomatic sanctions and retaliations over territory, intellectual property, trade, the coronavirus, allegations of espionage and the repression in Hong Kong, among other disputes.…  Seguir leyendo »

Firefighters responding to a fire at the Chinese Consulate in Houston on July 21. Credit Mark Mulligan/Houston Chronicle, via Associated Press

We’ll probably never know exactly what sorts of documents were incinerated at China’s Consulate in Houston in the days before the United States forced it to close on Friday, after accusing it of being a hub of espionage. We may also never know what caused this month’s catastrophic fire aboard the U.S.S. Bonhomme Richard, a massive amphibious assault ship that was being fitted out to double as a small aircraft carrier, in the port of San Diego.

What we should know is that the two fires are actually one. We are racing toward a conflict with China we may be ill-prepared to wage.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) ruled last week on the Schrems II case, and invalidated the Privacy Shield agreement by which the United States and the European Union regulate transatlantic flows of personal data for commercial purposes. While the judgment appears to apply only to a specific subset of personal data and only to E.U.-U.S. data flows, its implications are global.

The ruling doesn’t affect all data

The court’s July 16 ruling limits transfer to the United States of E.U. citizens’ “personal data,” not other data flows. Within this category of personal data, the judgment is further limited, as it does not apply to “necessary” data transfers to the United States, such as emails or online travel or hotel bookings.…  Seguir leyendo »

En su discurso de apertura en la reunión anual del Consejo Europeo de Relaciones Exteriores (ECFR por su sigla en inglés), el ministro de Asuntos Exteriores alemán, Heiko Maas, dijo que más allá del resultado de la elección presidencial de Estados Unidos en noviembre, los europeos “tendrán que pensar en cómo contener mejor los conflictos en la vecindad de Europa, aún sin Estados Unidos”.

Su punto de vista es popular. Muchos expertos europeos, como Janan Ganesh y Wolfgang Münchau del Financial Times, han venido sosteniendo que las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y la UE no cambiarían significativamente aún si un demócrata derrotara al presidente norteamericano, Donald Trump.…  Seguir leyendo »

A man walks past a bag printed with the portrait of China's revolutionary leader Mao Tse-tung on display outside a shop in Hong Kong. Photo by PHILIPPE LOPEZ/AFP via Getty Images.

Harder Line Could Accelerate Animosity with China

Coronavirus has dramatically reshaped the political and economic context for the US foreign policy debate. With more than 20 million Americans unemployed – and an unemployment rate above 13% – more than 125,000 deaths and the rate of infections continuing to climb across the south and south-west, and President Donald Trump polling more than 8% behind Joe Biden, it is hardly surprising that China and its role both in the pandemic and in the US economy continues to dominate foreign policy discussions.

In both the United States and Europe, the severity of the health and economic crisis driven by the pandemic has raised the stakes for policy on China and – especially in the UK, Germany, France and the wider EU – is tipping the balance towards those who advocate for a harder line on China.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iraqi students pose for selfies with a member of the security forces during anti-government protests in Diwaniyah. Photo by HAIDAR HAMDANI/AFP via Getty Images.

After the drone assassinations of senior Iraqi politician Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian general Qassim Soleimani, Washington hopes that agreeing issues of mutual economic interest will result in Iraqi calls for immediate troop withdraw to disappear.

But the hype surrounding these talks overlooks profound problems in the relationship. US foreign policy under Donald Trump is frankly incoherent and, beyond the bluster, focused on reducing US commitments across the Middle East, which has led to a rapid decrease in America’s diplomatic presence in Baghdad.

Added to this is that Iran has steadily increased its influence over Iraq’s ruling elite to the point where there is a distinct lack of freedom of action.…  Seguir leyendo »

Riot police in front of a luxury goods store in Hong Kong on the day Chinese lawmakers approve a proposal for sweeping new national security legislation in the city. Photo by Roy Liu/Bloomberg via Getty Images.

The decision by China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) to create new national security legislation for Hong Kong has seen criticism erupt in parts of the Hong Kong community and internationally. The US has raised the stakes in response, saying it will no longer treat Hong Kong as ‘autonomous’.

Many critics have attacked the process set out by Beijing, arguing that any national security legislation should be considered by Hong Kong’s legislature. That was indeed the original intention when the Basic Law was promulgated in 1990 but, since an aborted attempt to introduce legislation in 2003 and consistent lobbying against reviving it, Beijing seems to have concluded an alternative approach is needed.…  Seguir leyendo »

Trabajadores de una fábrica en la provincia de Anhui, en China, cosen pancartas para la campaña de reelección de Donald Trump.Credit...Aly Song/Reuters

¿Cuándo comenzó la Segunda Guerra Fría? Los historiadores del futuro dirán que fue en 2019.

Algunos insistirán en que la nueva Guerra Fría ya había comenzado —con Rusia— en 2014, cuando Moscú envió sus tropas a Ucrania. Pero el deterioro de las relaciones ruso-estadounidenses palidece en comparación con el ascenso del antagonismo chino- estadounidense que se ha desarrollado en los últimos años. Y aunque Estados Unidos y China probablemente pueden evitar una guerra “caliente”, una segunda Guerra Fría todavía es una posibilidad desalentadora.

Algunos académicos pedantes tal vez digan que la nueva Guerra Fría comenzó con la elección de Donald Trump en noviembre de 2016 o en enero de 2018, con su imposición inicial de aranceles a lavadoras y paneles solares importados, muchos de los cuales se fabrican en China.…  Seguir leyendo »

A United Nations staff member moving the flags of Iran and the United States after a group photo during the 2015 Iran Nuclear talks.Credit...Carlos Barria/Reuters

The momentous protests in Iran this autumn came at a delicate time in a tense standoff between the United States and Iran. Despite the recent prisoner swap, officials in Washington may see the prospects for diplomacy dimming. But that would be wrong. Iranian elections are coming, and without any American agreement to relent on sanctions, the current relatively conciliatory government might well lose all its influence in favor of far more confrontational hard-liners.

That calculus makes this exactly the time to take diplomacy seriously. While the opportunity for success may be slim, failing to reverse rising tensions now risks a serious escalation in frictions that would be more impervious to diplomacy down the road.…  Seguir leyendo »

En 1991 llegué a Detroit para realizar mi primera visita a Estados Unidos. Mis anfitriones, de la ya extinta Agencia de Información de EE UU, estaban decididos a mostrarme a mí y a los demás búlgaros del grupo no solo el sueño americano, sino sus puntos débiles. Antes de recorrer la ciudad, nos dieron instrucciones sobre cómo conducirnos en lugares supuestamente peligrosos. Nuestros anfitriones dejaron claro que, si no queríamos convertirnos en víctimas, no debíamos actuar como tales. Caminar por en medio de la calle y mirar nerviosamente a nuestro alrededor con la esperanza de encontrar un policía solo aumentaría la probabilidad de un atraco.…  Seguir leyendo »

Même l’Amérique de Trump peut avoir raison contre l’Europe

L’administration américaine a annoncé le 3 octobre, une série de mesures protectionnistes portant sur une liste de produits européens emblématiques : des taxes additionnelles de 10 % sur les avions civils, et même de 25 % sur un grand nombre de produits couvrant fromages italiens et anglais, whiskys irlandais et écossais, vins français, outils allemands et olives espagnoles, etc.

On pourrait voir là une nouvelle manifestation de la stratégie du président Donald Trump, prônant des guerres commerciales « bénéfiques et faciles à gagner ». C’est au contraire le retour à une certaine normalité des relations internationales en termes d’échanges commerciaux que nous signale cet épisode, ce dont il faut certainement se féliciter.…  Seguir leyendo »

Donald Trump walks from Marine One to Air Force One at Ocala International Airport on 3 October. Photo: Getty Images.

A tactical approach to Turkey has failed

Lindsay Newman

The US approach to Turkey under President Donald Trump has been tactical, consisting of a series of mixed signals.

In August 2018, the US imposed sanctions on several Turkish officials to pressure for the release of detained American pastor Andrew Brunson. With the Turkish lira plummeting, Brunson was released in October of that year.

In a separate incident, after squeezing Turkey economically, the US offered to work with Turkey in the investigation into the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. But later, the White House considered reopening the case of the extradition of Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, long sought by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a bid to convince Turkey to reduce pressure on Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi killing.…  Seguir leyendo »

Last week, President Trump ordered an investigation into France’s new tax on Apple, Facebook, Google and other large digital companies. The administration is considering strong retaliatory measures, on the grounds that it unfairly targets U.S. companies.

This is the latest stage in a long-running battle. France introduced its “digital services tax” because it felt that the Group of 20 nations weren’t making progress toward a new global agreement on taxing technology companies. Britain, Spain, Italy and others are pursuing similar taxes.

Some commentators view the Trump probe as just “a new angle of attack” in an ongoing transatlantic rift between the United States and Europe.…  Seguir leyendo »

Relations between the United States and the European Union are at an all-time low. Since becoming president, Donald Trump has done everything possible to undermine the unity of the bloc and question its principles. He has walked away from agreements on climate change, the Iran nuclear deal and trade. He pours scorn on the E.U.’s antitrust regulations, claiming they are about hurting U.S. tech companies. He supports Brexit and praises the populist, anti-migration policies of Hungary and Poland.

Much of his criticism targets Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel. He blames her for Europe’s migration crisis and accuses her of using trade policies to boost German exports, especially cars to the U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »