Relaciones Transatlánticas (Continuación)

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meeting U.S President Joe Biden in Jeddah, July 2022 Bandar Algaloud / Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court / Reuters

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Last week, Saudi Arabia joined Russia and other petroleum-producing nations in the cartel known as OPEC+ in voting to slash oil production at a moment of historically high energy prices and rising inflation. The timing appears designed not only to fuel Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war machine but also to reverse the aggressive work that the U.S. Congress and the Biden administration have done to counter high inflation rates and bring down gas prices. But this hostile action by Washington’s putative friends in Riyadh did offer one silver lining: it showed that the United States has considerable leverage to correct what has become a fundamentally lopsided relationship.…  Seguir leyendo »

Chinese military conducted live-fire military exercises to intimidate Taiwan after a high-profile visit by Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, to Taipei in August. Lai Qiaoquan/Xinhua, via Associated Press

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Competition and conflict between the United States and China have continued to intensify. On Aug. 2, the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan to showcase congressional support for the self-governing island, defying Chinese protests that her visit was inconsistent with the “one China” policy of the United States. China responded by ringing the island with live-fire military exercises, missile tests and other operations in the Taiwan Strait.

On Oct. 7, the Biden administration ordered sweeping export controls to prevent China from acquiring the most advanced semiconductors and the equipment required to manufacture them, and forbidding any American or foreign company to sell to China any such equipment that uses American technology.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Global flows of students, scholars and ideas have soared over the past two decades, proving to be one of the most resilient aspects of globalisation. By 2019 the number of higher-education students in a foreign country hit 6m, triple the number from 2000, while almost one-quarter of all scientific publications had cross-border co-authors, up from 18.6% in 2011. This exchange has created incalculable value in interpersonal connections, economic benefits and such fruits of collaborative research as the Human Genome Project and covid-19 vaccines.

Nowhere has the growth in global academic exchange been more visible than in that between America and China.…  Seguir leyendo »

‘The Saudi prince has inflicted political damage on the Biden administration a month before the US midterm elections.’ Photograph: Saudi Royal Court/Reuters

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In July, Joe Biden traveled to Saudi Arabia and shared a fist bump with the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman. As a presidential candidate, Biden had promised to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” for its human rights abuses and its seven-year war against Yemen. But a devastating global pandemic and Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine forced him to set these concerns aside in favor of realpolitik. Biden needed the Saudis to increase oil production in order to lower gasoline prices for American consumers, so he swallowed his pride and treated the crown prince as the world leader he aspires to be.…  Seguir leyendo »

U.S. President Joe Biden (left) is welcomed by Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at Alsalam Royal Palace in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on July 15. Royal Court of Saudi Arabia /Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

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U.S. President Joe Biden was never enthusiastic about making a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia to make up with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. And three months after the  fist bump that went ’round the world, it’s easy to see why.

Last week, that fist bump was replaced by a Saudi sucker punch as OPEC+, a cartel of top oil producers, decided to cut its oil production by as much as 2 million barrels per day (though  oil analysts say the cut may prove to be significantly lower). There’s no doubt that the primary motive was to keep prices high and maintain Russian-Saudi and OPEC+ cohesion in anticipation of further economic downturns and perhaps a U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

What the U.S. Gets Wrong About Iran

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Ibn Khaldun, the 14th-century North African scholar, wrote that empires tended not to last beyond three generations. The founders of the first-generation are rough men united by hardship, grit and group solidarity, a concept he called asabiyyah. The next generation preserve the achievements of their forebears. By the third or fourth generation, however, the comforts of wealth and status erode ambition and unity, leaving them vulnerable to a new generation of power seekers with fire in their bellies.

In the 1979 Iranian revolution, religious fundamentalists with fire in their bellies transformed the country into an anti-American Islamist theocracy. Today Iran is still led by one of its first-generation revolutionaries — 83-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ruled since 1989.…  Seguir leyendo »

Biden's Middle East trip shows the long game is his aim

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Under pressure at home for high energy prices and his willingness to sacrifice principles for national interests, President Joe Biden’s Middle East trip – with visits to Israel and Saudi Arabia which included participation in a meeting with nine Arab leaders in Riyadh – came at a critical time for the region.

This attempt by the US president at a reset of relations frames his efforts to manage tensions with Iran, support greater regional security cooperation, and manage geopolitical competition in the Middle East – all of which also benefit America’s British and European partners.

Regional concerns have long been mounting over Washington’s strategy to revive the Iran nuclear agreement – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – and over the distraction of American domestic politics and US geopolitical repositioning.…  Seguir leyendo »

Joe Biden tiene un problema saudita

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Atacar a Arabia Saudita durante la campaña electoral para la presidencia es casi una tradición en Estados Unidos, y el presidente Joe Biden no fue la excepción. Envalentonado por la indignación en el país por el asesinato del periodista Jamal Khashoggi y la intervención encabezada por Arabia Saudita en Yemen, Biden fue más atrevido que sus predecesores al llamar a Arabia Saudita un “Estado paria”. Fue un paso mal calculado.

Ahora que la guerra en Ucrania eleva los precios de la energía y China consolida más alianzas en el Medio Oriente, Biden viaja miles de kilómetros para intentar reparar una relación que ha llegado a su punto más bajo en sus 80 años de historia, quizá aún peor que después de los ataques del 11 de septiembre de 2001.…  Seguir leyendo »

From left to right, Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita, and Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan pose for a group photo following their Negev meeting in the Israeli kibbutz of Sde Boker on March 28. JACQUELYN MARTIN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

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Reports indicate that Washington is presenting the United Arab Emirates with a formal defense agreement containing U.S. security guarantees for Abu Dhabi. If true, it would be the first of its kind for the region—and a step back for U.S. interests.

The Biden administration has reportedly already sent a draft agreement to the UAE, accompanied by a visit from White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk, to discuss the subject. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati academic and former advisor to the UAE’s leadership, recently stated that the two countries are close to signing a “comprehensive and binding” partnership that “no country in the region has obtained so far”.…  Seguir leyendo »

La víctima cultural de la guerra de Putin en Ucrania

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La guerra en Ucrania es una catástrofe interminable. Las fuerzas rusas, concentradas en el este, siguen infligiendo un daño terrible en los soldados y civiles ucranianos. Una infinidad de vidas han sido perdidas y trastornadas. Una vez más, el mundo debe afrontar la posibilidad de una guerra nuclear y lidiar con unas crisis de refugiados y del costo del nivel de vida que están empeorando. Este no es el “fin de la historia” que habíamos esperado.

Se está dando otra transformación, aunque menos violenta: luego de tres décadas de intercambio, interacción e involucramiento, la puerta entre Rusia y Estados Unidos se está cerrando.…  Seguir leyendo »

Tractores y mercancías estadounidenses del Plan Marshall llegan a los Países Bajos. Foto: U.S. Embassy The Hague

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El 5 de junio se celebró el 75 aniversario del discurso del secretario de Estado George Marshall en la Universidad de Harvard, en el que anunció las grandes líneas del plan que lleva su nombre, que propició el desarrollo económico y la integración europea y sentó las bases de la relación transatlántica tal como hoy la conocemos.

Setenta y cinco años después, tanto la integración europea como la asociación transatlántica necesitan un impulso renovado, adaptado al nuevo contexto internacional. Resulta necesario ofrecer un proyecto movilizador a las respectivas opiniones públicas, pues de lo contrario podrían caer en la tentación de cerrarse sobre sí mismas.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Door Between Russia and America Is Slamming Shut

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The war in Ukraine is a never-ending catastrophe. Russian forces, concentrated in the east, continue to inflict terrible damage on Ukrainian soldiers and civilians alike. Countless lives have been lost and upended. Once again, the world must confront the possibility of nuclear war and grapple with a compounding refugee and cost of living crisis. This isn’t the “end of history” that we hoped for.

Less violently, another transformation is taking place: After three decades of exchange, interaction and engagement, the door between Russia and America is slamming shut. Practically every day another American company — including the most symbolic of them all, McDonald’s, whose golden arches heralded a new era 30 years ago — pulls out of Russia.…  Seguir leyendo »

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La agresión rusa contra Ucrania ha tenido una respuesta inmediata y coordinada de EEUU y la UE en apoyo al restablecimiento de la legalidad internacional y de la independencia, integridad territorial y soberanía ucraniana. Esta coordinación ha sido tanto más destacable cuanto que la relación transatlántica había salido hacía poco más de un año de un período de desconfianza mutua, en el que el anterior presidente estadounidense había calificado a la UE de rival en el terreno comercial, había mostrado su simpatía por el Brexit y había sembrado serias dudas acerca de la solidez del compromiso de EEUU con la seguridad europea en el marco de la OTAN (organización que calificó de “obsoleta”).…  Seguir leyendo »

U.S. Navy Capt. David Bretz (right) shakes hands with Vietnamese military officials during the arrival of the USNS Mercy in Nha Trang in central Vietnam on May 17, 2018. LINH PHAM/AFP via Getty Images

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Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is making his first visit to the United States later this week for the U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit. Since the mid-1990s, when U.S. President Bill Clinton and a cohort of bipartisan allies reestablished relations with Vietnam, the two countries have achieved remarkable things. Hanoi is now one of Washington’s top trading partners in the region, and the United States has invested billions of dollars in Agent Orange remediation and other remaining war legacy issues, showing how, with persistence and trust, former adversaries can turn into partners.

U.S. officials, including most recently U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam Marc Knapper, are calling for an official upgrade to a “strategic partnership” from the current status of “comprehensive partnership” to recognize the remarkable success of the relationship.…  Seguir leyendo »

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast of a military parade held in Pyongyang, North Korea, at a railway station in Seoul on April 26. Jung Yeon-Je/AFP via Getty Images

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The United States has “high expectations for working with the Yoon administration on issues related to the Korean Peninsula”, the United States’ top envoy for North Korea stated while in Seoul last week. But those expectations may be misplaced, given that Washington appears unwilling to prioritize stabilization through a more flexible diplomatic strategy.

To be sure, Seoul is taking a similar line. South Korea’s incoming conservative president Yoon Suk-yeol has promised to be tough on North Korea. Pledging to “teach [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un] some manners”, the Yoon administration brings with it hopes of a more pliant North, in contrast with South Korea’s outgoing Moon Jae-in administration, which was more focused on dialogue and engagement.…  Seguir leyendo »

US President Joe Biden (right) and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a press conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on February 7.

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For the first time since President George H.W. Bush's 1989 offer to Germany for a "partnership in leadership", there is a realistic chance that Germans and Americans will come together as one. That opportunity needs to be seized urgently, as it will enable the rebuilding of a resilient free world.

While Europeans have enjoyed blaming successive American leaders for transatlantic discord, as evident, for instance, in the breakdown of transatlantic trust during the Obama-era NSA snooping in Europe, they all too often forget a simple fact.

Their own latent anti-Americanism and distrust of hard power has prevented a resurgence of a united Atlantic world, just as much as have American actions.…  Seguir leyendo »

It’s Time for a U.S.-Pakistan Policy Reset

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For decades, U.S. policy toward Pakistan has been predicated on America’s goals in Afghanistan. Pakistan both helped and hindered the U.S. war on terror, making for a notoriously dysfunctional relationship. Now the United States is out of Afghanistan, and the relationship is on shaky footing. It’s time to reimagine it.

The United States must treat Pakistan as a country in its own right, not as a fulcrum for U.S. policy on Afghanistan. That starts with America disentangling itself from the close military relationship with Pakistan.

A reset won’t be easy: Resentment is rife. America sees Pakistan’s support for the Taliban as one reason it lost in Afghanistan; Pakistan sees the Taliban insurgency it faced at home as blowback for partnering with America next door.…  Seguir leyendo »

A sticker of US president Joe Biden satirically placed at a gas station pointing at the price of gasoline. Photo by Ty O'Neil/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images.

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A short and productive November meeting saw OPEC+ quickly trot out a series of eloquently crafted messages which emphasized that, in spite of rising oil prices and short-term growth demand, the group would be holding firm to its current production plans.

Each communique chimed soundly with the chief cheerleader Saudi energy minister Abdelaziz bin Salman Al Saud’s (AbS) lengthy exposition of the meeting where he made it clear OPEC+ would only increase production by 400kbd per month – as agreed in July – and resist the pressure from the US or other major consuming countries to pump more.

AbS argued that because global demand will ease off and inventories start to fill in December and Q1 of 2022, the market will find a natural balance to serve interests of producers and consumers alike.…  Seguir leyendo »

El presidente de Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, con el presidente de Francia, Emmanuel Macron, en el Palacio del Eliseo (París) el 30 de octubre de 2021. White House

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La vida política transita a gran velocidad. Hace apenas un año que los europeos recibieron con entusiasmo la elección de Joe Biden como 46º presidente de los Estados Unidos. Un año después, la relación transatlántica no vive sus mejores momentos. El acuerdo AUKUS, la salida apresurada de Afganistán, la revisión estratégica de la OTAN o el giro asiático han revelado una agenda poco generosa con las expectativas europeas, que con toda probabilidad habían sobredimensionado el interés de la nueva presidencia por los asuntos continentales.

En la práctica, el ejercicio del presidente Biden ha contribuido a revelar las tensiones internas tanto en el seno de las instituciones comunitarias como entre los propios países.…  Seguir leyendo »

When It Comes to China, Don’t Call It a ‘Cold War’

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A new idea is gaining currency among some politicians and policymakers in Washington: The United States is in a “Cold War” with China. It’s a bad idea — bad on history, bad on politics, bad for our future.

The Biden administration has wisely pushed back on the framing. But the president’s actions suggest that his strategy for dealing with China may indeed suffer from Cold War thinking, which locks our minds into the traditional two-dimensional chess model.

Competition with China, though, is a three-dimensional game. And if we continue to play two-dimensional chess, we will lose.

While neither the conflict with the Soviet Union nor the current competition with China has led to all-out combat, the games are very different.…  Seguir leyendo »