Taiwán (Continuación)

MundoAsia,

In 2014, after a 30-year career as an acute-care surgeon, I was elected the first non-party-affiliated mayor of Taipei, Taiwan’s capital, since it became a municipality overseen by the central government. I was re-elected in 2018, amid intense competition between the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT). Over the past quarter century, these rivals have alternately held the reins of executive and legislative power, symbolising a lack of confidence among our citizens in the bipartisan system that had long dominated Taiwanese politics.

Advocating sweeping change, I established the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) in 2019 and now seek the presidency in the election that is to be held on January 13th.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia,

As Taiwan's electorate prepares to cast ballots in the presidential and parliamentary elections on January 13th, voting will once again be taking place under the shadow of hybrid warfare and covert influence from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which is motivated by a desire to sabotage the rules-based international order and expand its global influence.

Starting with its first direct presidential election in 1996, Taiwan has conducted seven rounds of elections for president, with three peaceful changes of governing party. Through the years following Taiwan’s successful transition from authoritarianism to democracy, democratic values have become deeply ingrained in the Taiwanese psyche.…  Seguir leyendo »

Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence

MundoAsia, ,

The growing might of China’s military and its increasingly aggressive posture toward Taiwan have made deterrence in the Taiwan Strait a tougher challenge than ever before. It is incumbent on the United States to support Taiwan’s efforts to develop a defensive “porcupine strategy”. Washington can help Taiwan’s military stockpile and train with coastal defense and air defense weapons, field a robust civil defense force, and create strategic reserves of critical materials such as food and fuel to deter and, if necessary, defeat an invasion or blockade of the island. The U.S. military should also better prepare to cope with China’s expanding arsenal of missiles that pose a threat to U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

Protesters hold Taiwanese flags as they confront supporters of Chinese President Xi Jinping outside the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco on Nov. 15. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images)

MundoAsia, ,

Many in Washington are pointing to last week’s meeting between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping as a sign that the two great powers are growing closer. But on the most important issue in the relationship — Taiwan — Washington and Beijing are moving further apart. Xi’s rhetoric indicates he’s getting impatient with the status quo — and his actions are even more worrisome.

During the two leaders’ private meeting in the San Francisco Bay Area, Xi struck some ominous notes on Taiwan. Regarding Beijing’s long-standing desire to bring the island under its control, Xi said his “preference was for peaceful reunification”, a senior U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

Soldiers marching in Taoyuan, Taiwan July 2023. Ann Wang / Reuters

MundoAsia, ,

As debate over China policy rages in the United States, the discussion in Washington is increasingly focused on the question of how to deter Beijing from invading or blockading Taiwan. This is for good reason: like their predecessors, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his colleagues have signaled a determination to exercise control over Taiwan and will, if necessary, resort to force to do so. Responding to these threats, a growing number of U.S. military leaders—including the former head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Phil Davidson, and Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday—have warned that China could attack Taiwan by 2027.…  Seguir leyendo »

No, Xi Jinping Is Not About to Attack Taiwan

MundoAsia, ,

To some observers, it may seem like Xi Jinping is itching to unify Taiwan with China.

The Chinese president has repeatedly asserted that doing so is vital to achieving his “China Dream” of national rejuvenation. He has instructed the Chinese military to be prepared by 2027 to take Taiwan by force, if necessary, and China increasingly uses its growing military might to intimidate Taiwan’s people into yielding to Chinese control. Last month, it staged large-scale naval drills involving an aircraft carrier in waters east of Taiwan and, days later, flew 103 warplanes toward the island — a single-day record.

But this bluster masks significant misgivings within China’s leadership about whether its largely unproven People’s Liberation Army forces can seize and control Taiwan at an acceptable cost, doubts that have very likely been accentuated by Russia’s military failures in Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia,

No es mucha la atención que prestamos a la vieja Formosa. Y, sin embargo, poco a poco se afianza como uno de los epicentros geopolíticos clave del siglo XXI. Las aguas de su estrecho son de gran importancia para el comercio mundial; sus semiconductores, indispensables pero, sobre todo, su estabilidad y la paz representan el mejor garante de la prosperidad de toda Asia y del resto del mundo.

A tres meses vista de sus elecciones presidenciales y legislativas, la atmósfera política se va caldeando. Internamente, dos bloques, con dos visiones distintas del futuro de la isla, contraponen sus programas. El soberanismo, en torno al actual vicepresidente Lai Ching-te, parte con buenas expectativas.…  Seguir leyendo »

At the annual party conference of the Kuomintang (KMT) in New Taipei City, Taiwan, July 2023. Ann Wang / Reuters

MundoAsia

Taiwan is recognized around the world for its economic development and democratic achievements, its cutting-edge industries, and its vibrant civil society. In recent years, however, this island of 23 million people has been described in international media in darker terms. Some have called it a flashpoint that could start the next world war or even, according to The Economist, “the most dangerous place on earth”. That is because Beijing has grown increasingly assertive in its rhetoric and actions at a time when Taiwan and mainland China have no channel of communication to limit rising tensions. In the view of many observers, the equilibrium in the Taiwan Strait is in danger.…  Seguir leyendo »

Taiwanese Vice President William Lai in Taoyuan, Taiwan, on Friday. (Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters)

MundoAsia, ,

According to Beijing authorities (and some Taipei opposition figures), the potential election of current Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te as president in January could spark the biggest crisis yet in cross-strait relations — and potentially lead to war. But Lai’s recent visit to the United States showed that these warnings are overblown. China is attacking Lai because he is reasonable, not because he’s a hothead. That makes him much harder for Beijing to undermine.

China’s foreign ministry complained loudly before Lai, who is also referred to as William Lai, visited New York City and San Francisco this month — visits referred to by the Americans and the Taiwanese as “transit” stops on his way to and from Peru.…  Seguir leyendo »

Le président Xi Jinping n’a pas fermé la porte à une « réintégration par la force » de l’île, qu’il considère comme une province rebelle, précise l’auteur. Mark Schiefelbein Agence France-Presse

MundoAsia, ,

Taïwan, cette île d’environ 24 millions d’habitants et d’une superficie de 35 980 kilomètres carrés, semble minuscule aux abords de son voisin chinois. Dans les rues de Taipei, la capitale, les gens vaquent à leurs occupations. Sur place, rien ne paraît traduire la haute tension à laquelle l’île fait face : la menace d’une invasion de son puissant voisin chinois, et la possible intervention américaine qui pourrait mener à une guerre ouverte entre les deux superpuissances.

Lors du dernier congrès du Parti communiste chinois, l’actuel président Xi Jinping n’a pas fermé la porte à une « réintégration par la force » de l’île, qu’il considère comme une province rebelle.…  Seguir leyendo »

Hsieh Ying-xuan, left, and Gingle Wang in “Wave Makers.” Courtesy of Netflix

MundoAsia,

In many ways, Taiwan’s a nice place to live.

We say “thank you” and “excuse me” almost like punctuation. We’re exceedingly polite, except when it comes to traffic and elections. We are passionate democrats and are politically progressive compared with many of our East Asian neighbors: We elected an unmarried, childless woman as president and legalized same-sex marriage. We have laws in place for sexual harassment on campuses and in the workplace. And we’re banning plastic straws.

But somewhere along the way, our niceness became something to be exploited.

Taiwan is now reckoning with our long-delayed #MeToo movement, an experience that has shown us just how far women — even in the most progressive and woke places — still have to go to win and preserve their safety and autonomy.…  Seguir leyendo »

A target missile is launched during a Taiwanese military live-firing exercise in Pingtung County on July 4.

MundoAsia,

With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine showing that large-scale war involving great powers is a 21st-century reality, the Taiwan Strait has reemerged as one of the most dangerous front lines in the world. Recent visits to Beijing by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen opened a more promising pathway for U.S.-China relations than has existed in the past few years, but as long as the future of Taiwan remains fraught, there cannot be stability in those relations nor assurance of the peace that the people of Taiwan deserve.

Beijing, Washington and Taipei share responsibility for the current state of confrontation.…  Seguir leyendo »

A news broadcast about Taiwan, Beijing, August 2022. Thomas Peter / Reuters

MundoAsia,

For half a century, peace has held in the Taiwan Strait. This has been due to a combination of creative diplomacy, military deterrence, and self-restraint on the part of China, Taiwan and the United States. But the factors that kept the peace in previous decades may not continue to do so in the future. The sources of instability are growing in one of the world’s most dangerous hot spots: diplomacy is fraying, deterrence is eroding, and China’s risk tolerance is increasing.

The most significant and destabilizing changes emanate from Beijing. Under President Xi Jinping, China is implementing a persistent and escalating campaign of coercion against Taiwan.…  Seguir leyendo »

Members of the Chinese military in Beijing, October 2022. Florence Lo / Reuters

MundoAsia, ,

The risk of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait is becoming dire. On Feb. 2, CIA Director William Burns stated that Chinese President Xi Jinping had ordered China’s military to be “ready by 2027 to conduct a successful invasion” of Taiwan. Although Burns added that this did not mean that Xi has decided to invade Taiwan, he described Xi’s move as “a reminder of the seriousness of his focus and his ambition”.

But the main factor that will determine whether Washington and Beijing come to blows over Taiwan is not necessarily Xi’s strategy for unification but the idiosyncrasies of China’s political system.…  Seguir leyendo »

In Taiwan, Friends Are Starting to Turn Against Each Other

MundoAsia, ,

A friend of mine in Taipei recently wrote a passionate Facebook post urging young people in Taiwan to prepare for war with China. The only way to respond to Chinese threats to seize the island was, he argued, with strength; anything else was a delusion. Despite being in his 60s, he vowed to take up arms if necessary.

It’s become a troublingly common sentiment in Taiwan, and I messaged him privately to say that strength should be only a part of Taiwan’s strategy, that our politicians and other public figures should show true courage by reaching out to China to somehow de-escalate.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, ,

Las maniobras militares chinas y estadounidenses alrededor de la gran isla de Taiwán no presagian una guerra inminente. Todo lo contrario. Me parece, más bien, que exhiben su poder para no tener que utilizarlo. Todo el mundo conoce el coste de la guerra, que siempre es superior a lo previsto, y nadie calcula de antemano los beneficios que se derivarán de ella. Del lado estadounidense, por tanto, la estrategia es claramente defensiva: exhibe su equipo y su determinación verbal. En esa lógica, se refuerzan alianzas con vecinos a los que China amenaza, como Corea del Sur, Japón, Filipinas, Australia e India.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, ,

La tensión militar ha vuelto al estrecho de Taiwán. El contexto evoca lo sucedido en agosto último. Si entonces el desencadenante fue la visita a la isla de la presidenta de la Cámara de Representantes Nancy Pelosi, ahora fue el encuentro de su sucesor, Kevin McCarthy, con la presidenta Tsai Ing-wen en suelo estadounidense, algo que ocurre por primera vez desde la ruptura de relaciones diplomáticas en 1979.

Mucho del devenir de la política en Taiwán pasa por Estados Unidos. Acaba de iniciar su visita a este país Ko Wen-je, líder del Partido Popular de la isla, que se postula a las elecciones presidenciales de 2024 y busca la credencial o el plácet de Washington.…  Seguir leyendo »

¿Vale la pena defender a Taiwán?

MundoAsia, ,

Nadie parece saber cómo reaccionaría Estados Unidos si China invadiera Taiwán. Durante décadas, los líderes norteamericanos hicieron todo lo posible para evitar esta cuestión. Luego, en septiembre del año pasado, el presidente Joe Biden pareció haber puesto fin a la política de “ambigüedad estratégica” de Washington cuando dijo que las tropas estadounidenses defenderían la isla en caso de “un ataque sin precedentes”. Pero casi inmediatamente después de que hablara Biden, los funcionarios de la Casa Blanca se retractaron e insistieron en que la política de Estados Unidos hacia Taiwán no había cambiado.

Mientras que el Tratado de Seguridad de Estados Unidos y Japón de 1960 obliga a Estados Unidos a entrar en guerra si el territorio japonés es atacado, Estados Unidos no tiene un tratado semejante con Taiwán.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Taiwanese flag, Taipei, December 2022. Ann Wang / Reuters

MundoAsia, ,

In the West and parts of Asia, concern is mounting that China might invade Taiwan to distract from mounting domestic challenges or because Chinese leaders imagine that their window of opportunity to seize the island is closing. Facing an economic slowdown and rising unemployment, some analysts argue, Beijing might be tempted to launch a military offensive to rally popular support. In January 2023, for instance, Taiwan’s foreign minister, Joseph Wu, speculated that Chinese President Xi Jinping might create an external crisis “to divert domestic attention or to show to the Chinese that he has accomplished something”.

Other analysts warn of an impending war because China’s rise is slowing.…  Seguir leyendo »

Annette Lu, center, a former vice president of Taiwan, at a pro-peace rally in Taipei. Chiang Ying-Ying/Associated Press

MundoAsia, ,

Three months after Russia invaded Ukraine, Annette Lu, a former vice president of Taiwan, stood before reporters to promote a wildly unpopular idea. China and Taiwan, she said, should form a commonwealth that would be integrated economically, like the European Union, but remain separate politically. She called it One Zhonghua — a word that means “Chinese” in a cultural, ethnic or literary sense but is distinct from the word that refers to China in a political sense. It was a wink at the Chinese Communist Party’s insistence that there is only one China and that Taiwan is an inextricable part of it.…  Seguir leyendo »