Taiwán (Continuación)

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En las últimas semanas, se han producido dos hechos relevantes con respecto a Taiwan: por una parte, la presidenta de la Cámara de Representantes norteamericana, Nancy Pelosi, ha cursado una visita oficial a la isla, con lo que parece que su país ha abandonado la strategic ambiguity y se ha comprometido con su defensa; y por otro lado, la República Popular China ha realizado unas largas maniobras militares con imponente exhibición de poderío naval, misiles y fuego real.

En un artículo publicado en El Debate recientemente, anotaba cinco tropiezos en el año pasado de la diplomacia norteamericana, que reflejan su actual debilidad estratégica: la salida de Afganistán, el parón absoluto en el proceso de desnuclearización de Corea del Norte, los avances del castrismo-chavismo en Iberoamérica, el fracaso de la opción Guaidó en Venezuela y la guerra de Ucrania.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Taiwanese military outpost on Shi islet is seen past anti-landing spikes placed along the coast of Lieyu island on Taiwan’s Kinmen islands, which lie just 2 miles from the coast of mainland China, on Aug. 10. SAM YEH/AFP via Getty Images

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When a major Washington think tank earlier this month released the details of a sophisticated simulation of a war pitting China against the United States and its allies over Taiwan, some of the media coverage took comfort in what was at best a tentative conclusion: that with U.S. help, that island’s government could successfully defend itself against an attempted armed takeover by Beijing.

In an uncanny bit of coincidental timing, Beijing has been busy lately, in the wake of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent Taiwan visit, trying to send the opposite message. It has done this by running its own war simulation—not of the board game-like variety common to modern wargames but by actually carrying out the largest ever deployment of Chinese forces around Taiwan, hoping to impress observers not just by the quantity and quality of its military means but also by its greatly improved capacity for joint operations among the various branches of its armed forces.…  Seguir leyendo »

A night market in Taipei. More than 80% of Taiwanese people favour the democratic status quo. Photograph: stockinasia/Getty Images

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The American sinologist Lucian Pye famously said that China is a “civilisation pretending to be a nation-state”. But it is precisely the opposite: China is a modern nation-state that pretends to be an ancient civilisation – when it suits its expansionist ambitions.

Nowhere is this clearer than it the way it talks about Taiwan, which it claims has been part of China since time immemorial. The government recently published a white paper – released in the context of unprecedented live-fire drills aimed at intimidating Taiwan after Nancy Pelosi’s visit – which begins by referencing the dispatching of troops to Taiwan by the Sui Dynasty (581–618).…  Seguir leyendo »

A flag-lowering ceremony takes place at Liberty Square on Aug. 9 in Taipei, Taiwan. (Annabelle Chih/Getty Images)

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China’s bellicose response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) historic visit to Taiwan proves the paramount necessity for the international community to be vocal about its support for Taiwan — now more than ever.

Since Pelosi’s visit, China has escalated tensions through unprecedented and disproportionate military actions, economic coercion and diplomatic sanctions. The shift is severe enough that some analysts have called it the most dangerous development in the Taiwan Strait since the 1996 missile crisis.

In Taiwan, threats from China have been a part of daily life for decades. But at this moment, we face a deeper, existential question: Can the world really afford to lose Taiwan, an integral member of the world’s liberal democratic order?…  Seguir leyendo »

A Chinese soldier watches military exercises on Aug. 5, as Taiwan's frigate Lan Yang is seen in the background. (Lin Jian/Xinhua News Agency/AP)

MundoAméricaMundoAsia, , ,

China’s overreaction and retaliation toward Taiwan following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) visit shows that the leadership in Beijing is now focusing on taking the island by force, not through peaceful reunification as it has long claimed. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s strategy has moved from winning Taiwanese hearts and minds to inciting fear and loathing.

Although China seems to be finally winding down its military exercises around Taiwan, a week after Pelosi visited the democratic island, China’s drastic responses and ongoing punishments mark the beginning of new era of heightened danger. China canceled three military-to-military dialogues and suspended several bilateral cooperation programs on topics ranging from climate change to counternarcotics.…  Seguir leyendo »

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In the afternoon of August 4th, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) kicked off the largest and most sophisticated military exercises it has ever conducted. Over the course of a week, the Chinese launched dozens of missiles and conducted drills near Taiwan with 100 aircraft, ten destroyers and support vessels. Submarines and aircraft-carriers also played a role. The display has made the third Taiwan Strait crisis, which occurred between 1995-96, when China conducted four rounds of tests over the course of several months, with barrages of no more than six missiles, look like child’s play.

Part of the rationale for the latest exercise was to signal Beijing’s anger over Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.…  Seguir leyendo »

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En 1950, las tropas de Mao Zedong estaban preparadas para invadir Taiwán. Era el último territorio bajo control de Chiang Kai-shek, líder nacionalista contra el que habían luchado los comunistas en la guerra civil china. Entonces, Corea del Norte, apoyada por Stalin, decidió invadir Corea del Sur. Mao tuvo que mover sus tropas desde Taiwán hasta la frontera sino-coreana. La reunificación nacional china quedó abortada. Taiwán se consolidó como el gran bastión estadounidense de la Guerra Fría desde el que se quería reconquistar China de manos del comunismo. La isla se convirtió en el punto de tensión más duradero e importante entre Pekín y Washington.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ilustración que muestra la bandera china y la taiwanesa. Reuters

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1. Rusia y China reivindican Ucrania y Taiwán como parte irrenunciable de su territorio. Miran al pasado para conquistar el futuro. Excitan el nacionalismo y los sentimientos identitarios de sus ciudadanos. Son dos claros ejemplos de populismo. Sus reivindicaciones se remontan a Catalina la grande y al emperador Qin Shi Huang. Las dos revoluciones marxistas, las de Lenin y Mao Zedong, lo cambiaron todo.

2. Rusia necesita los recursos minerales y agrícolas de Ucrania, así como su posición estratégica (por su salida al Mediterráneo). China necesita los recursos pesqueros y petrolíferos, actualmente en disputa, de las aguas que comparte con Taiwán.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, ,

La visita a Taiwán de la Presidenta de la Cámara de Representantes estadounidense Nancy Pelosi, que generó tantos titulares noticiosos, ha recordado al mundo cuánto le importa la isla a China. Pero también debería importarle al mundo democrático.

No es ningún secreto el que el Partido Comunista de China (PCC) tiene la firme intención de unificar Taiwán (al que ve como una provincia secesionista) con el continente. Estados Unidos reconoció formalmente a la República Popular China como el único gobierno legal de China en 1979, y desde entonces las potencias occidentales se han abstenido de reconocer a Taiwán como un país distinto.…  Seguir leyendo »

Taiwan, entre el águila y el dragón

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El jueves al menos 11 misiles chinos cayeron en aguas al norte, sur y este de Taiwan. Cinco de ellos, según Japón, en la zona económica exclusiva (ZEE) japonesa próxima a Okinawa, donde se encuentra una de las principales bases militares estadounidenses del Pacífico. China no reconoce esa ZEE como japonesa. Con estas maniobras, que incluyen las prácticas más intensas de fuego artillero en su frontera con Taiwan, China cerró prácticamente el espacio aéreo y marítimo de seis zonas alrededor de la isla. El mando militar chino de oriente, que cubre Taiwan, anunció tras la visita dePelosi a Taipei la movilización de más de 100 aviones de combate, bombarderos y otros aparatos, y de más de 10 destructores y fragatas.…  Seguir leyendo »

A PLA plane refuels in mid-air. The Chinese have sent a record number of warplanes across the median line in the Taiwan Strait in protest at Pelosi’s visit © Eastern Theatre Command/Handout/Reuters

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For two days straight, Chinese military officials have been delivering a message of triumph to the public. The exercises with which the People’s Liberation Army is punishing Taiwan for hosting US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi feature “multiple firsts”, they gloated on state television.

“Our firepower covers all of Taiwan, and we can strike wherever we want”, said Zhang Junshe, a researcher at the PLA Navy Research Institute. “We got really close to Taiwan. We encircled Taiwan. And we demonstrated that we can effectively stop intervention by foreign forces”.

The Pelosi visit to Taipei, the first in 25 years by a Speaker of the House, was designed to demonstrate support for the country in the face of what many in the US believe to be a growing threat of a Chinese invasion.…  Seguir leyendo »

I’m Taiwanese, and I Want to Thank Nancy Pelosi

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As a Taiwanese, I’m sometimes asked what it’s like living in “the most dangerous place on earth”.

That’s what The Economist labeled Taiwan last year, and not without reason. Taiwan’s people have lived for decades under Chinese rhetorical threats to absorb the island. And as our huge Communist-ruled neighbor has developed into a military power, those threats now have teeth, which China has repeatedly bared in recent years through military exercises and violations of our air space in an escalating bullying campaign.

We are bracing for more pressure now after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s whirlwind visit to Taipei. China often reacts furiously when any U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Taiwan has been an inseparable part of China’s territory for 1,800 years. In 1943, the leaders of China, the United States and Britain issued the Cairo Declaration, which clearly states that all territories Japan stole from the Chinese, such as Taiwan, shall be restored to China. The Potsdam Declaration of 1945 affirmed that the terms of the Cairo Declaration would be carried out. United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758, passed in 1971, recognized that the representatives of the government of the People’s Republic of China are the only lawful representatives of China to the United Nations.

When China and the United States established diplomatic relations on Jan.…  Seguir leyendo »

Tourists watch as a Chinese military helicopter flies past China's Pingtan Island on Aug. 4. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images) (Afp Contributor#afp/AFP/Getty Images)

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How did the world’s two most powerful nations find themselves in a hair-raising crisis that could spill into a military conflict? The strangest aspect of the current conflict over Taiwan is how predictable it was.

Taiwan has been known to be the most sensitive issue for both the United States and China, one that has been carefully managed for five decades. And House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) recent visit to the island — which triggered the current conflict — was something she signaled she intended to do months ago.

On the American side, several errors — many of them tactical and driven by domestic politics — have resulted in a dangerous reality: There is no serious working relationship between the 21st century’s two most powerful actors.…  Seguir leyendo »

US Speaker of the House Of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, poses with Taiwan President, Tsai Ing-wen, in Taipei, Taiwan on 3 August 2022. Photo: Handout/Getty Images.

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China’s fading ties with Washington?

Dr Yu Jie

US House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi’s, visit to Taiwan has plunged China-US relations into a new low as the reservoir of trust forged between the two sides over the last 40 years appears to be almost exhausted.

However, her move will likely not result in the full-scale crisis across the Taiwan strait that some hawkish voices in both Beijing and Washington believe. Instead, Beijing will most likely offer a combination of military posturing toward the US navy and economic sanctions on Taiwanese agricultural and manufacturing products in order to send a clear bellwether to any future potential visits by high-level Western political figures.…  Seguir leyendo »

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La calculada visita de la presidenta de la Cámara de Representantes de Estados Unidos, Nancy Pelosi, a Taiwán va a marcar el inicio de una nueva etapa en el estado de las relaciones entre Washington y Pekín. A tres meses de la celebración del XX Congreso Nacional del Partido Comunista de China, que seguramente reafirmará a Xi Jinping en un tercer mandato, la intensa agenda de Estados Unidos en el Indo-Pacífico incorpora activamente a Taiwán en una compleja estrategia de la que todo el tablero geoestratégico de esa región será testigo.

Al permanente estado de alerta en el que se encuentra el estrecho de Taiwán hay que añadirle la mención del presidente Biden hasta en tres ocasiones durante sus dos años de mandato del compromiso de Estados Unidos de involucrarse militarmente en su defensa.…  Seguir leyendo »

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The russian invasion of Ukraine has been a wake-up call for Taiwan. Every day images of destruction flash across Taiwanese television screens. They bring to mind Taiwan’s own potential future. Late-night talk-show hosts in Taipei, the capital, have shifted from discussing political gossip to analysing military tactics and ruminating on how the war in Ukraine will unfold, and what it all means. That faraway conflict has drawn attention to the existential threat facing Taiwan.

Under General Secretary Xi Jinping’s command, the Chinese Community Party (CCP) has systematically strengthened its armed forces and prepared for an attack on Taiwan. The island’s government, its armed forces and its citizens must also prepare.…  Seguir leyendo »

In this photo released by the Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi walks with Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, left, as she arrives in Taipei Aug. 2.Associated Press

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The risk of a crisis emerging from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan this week is uncomfortably high. A crisis is not inevitable if Washington and Beijing engage in deft diplomacy, but the visit will probably lock in place an even more confrontational dynamic, increasing the chances of US-China conflict over Taiwan in the future.

No matter what immediate tit-for-tat reactions there are to the visit, the troubling long-term implication points to the urgent need for the Biden administration and Congress to better coordinate their handling of the Taiwan issue.

On Tuesday Pelosi arrived in Taiwan, the first time since 1997 that a US official of her seniority — second in the line of presidential succession — has visited the island.…  Seguir leyendo »

Taiwanese military personnel participating in an amphibious landing drill last week. Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times

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Vladimir Putin’s brutal attack on his Ukrainian neighbors has sparked global outrage — and forged unprecedented unity — among the democratic nations of the world. Not so with Xi Jinping, the hypernationalist president of the People’s Republic of China. Rather, he is no doubt taking notes and learning lessons from Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine to apply to his plans for Taiwan.

The United States and our partners in the international community need to do the same to develop and put in place a new and more resilient strategy for Taiwan while there is still time.

A clear lesson from the war in Ukraine is that authoritarian leaders have been emboldened in recent years by dysfunctional democracies and hesitant international institutions.…  Seguir leyendo »

Pelosi no podía retroceder ante China

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La visita de Nancy Pelosi a Taiwán acarrea riesgos indiscutibles.

Pekín podría responder hostigando a los barcos y aviones de la Marina estadounidense en el área, con un claro potencial de choque o confrontación. Podría apoderarse de la isla taiwanesa de Kinmen —en buena medida desmilitarizada, y más conocida por los entusiastas de la Guerra Fría como Quemoy—, que se encuentra a solo unos cuantos kilómetros de la costa de Fujian. Podría ayudar a Moscú en la guerra en Ucrania, tal vez al venderle el tipo de municiones de precisión que, según los informes, se están agotando en el ejército ruso.…  Seguir leyendo »