Ucrania (Continuación)

The War in Ukraine Will End, and That’s When We’ll See the True Tensions in Europe

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Europe these days reminds me of the early weeks of the pandemic: We are living with a sense that the end of the world is just around the corner. But this time, anxiety over Russia’s nuclear weapons has replaced talk of the virus.

European media is plastered with grim headlines about energy shortages, disruptions and blackouts. Analysts agree that inflation and the escalating cost of living could easily bring millions to the streets in protest. The number of migrants that have come to the European Union this year is already much higher than the number that came from Syria in 2015.…  Seguir leyendo »

Rusia, Ucrania y la sensación del fin del mundo en Europa

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Europa me recuerda últimamente a las primeras semanas de la pandemia: vivimos con la sensación de que el fin del mundo está a la vuelta de la esquina. Ahora la zozobra en torno a las armas nucleares de Rusia ha sustituido al virus en la conversación pública.

Los medios europeos están repletos de titulares funestos sobre escaseces de energía, alteraciones y apagones. Los analistas coinciden en que la inflación y el creciente costo de la vida podrían llevar fácilmente a millones de personas a protestar en las calles. La cifra de inmigrantes que han llegado a la Unión Europea este año es ya muy superior a la de llegadas desde Siria en 2015.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Vladimir Putin’s power rests on the impression that he is invincible and implacable — that the Russian president can’t be defeated and will stop at nothing to achieve his objectives.

The first myth has already been dispelled in Ukraine, where the Russian military has suffered heavy losses without coming close to achieving his ultimate objective of destroying Ukrainian independence. But the second myth lives on: It is leading some in the West to argue that the United States should use its leverage to force Kyiv to the bargaining table, because the Ukrainians will never succeed in regaining all of their lost territory.…  Seguir leyendo »

A man carrying bottles with water in Avdiivka, Ukraine, November 2022. Oleksandr Ratushniak / Reuters

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Since mid-October, Russia has repeatedly targeted civilian infrastructure across Ukraine, taking out the vital organs of the Ukrainian economy. The man newly in charge of Russian forces in Ukraine—General Sergei Surovikin, so ruthless that even his colleagues call him “General Armageddon”—has shown no signs of relenting. Russia has successfully attacked 40 percent of Ukraine’s power grids with a combination of missiles and Iranian drones. It has bombed energy facilities, including hydroelectric dams, leaving more than one million Ukrainians without electricity. In Kyiv, 80 percent of residents are without water, according to the city’s mayor. Economists project that Kyiv’s economy will shrink by at least 35 percent in 2022, and the United Nations estimates that nine of ten Ukrainians could be impoverished by Christmas.…  Seguir leyendo »

A fire caused by a Russian drone strike in Ukraine, October 2022. State Emergency Service of Ukraine / Reuters

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National leaders who are losing wars sometimes resort to desperate gambles. Defeat or even lack of victory might threaten their hold on power, and they are sometimes willing to take daring or outside-the-box moves to try to turn things around. This is the great fear about the war in Ukraine: if Russian President Vladimir Putin judges that his back is up against the wall, he may decide to take catastrophic action.

If he does so, he certainly has some nasty tools he could use. In the weeks since Ukraine’s dramatic September offensive, Putin has already demonstrated his willingness to order conventional airstrikes and missile strikes against civilian targets, including population centers and power-grid infrastructure in many parts of Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

Zelenskiy at the UN in September. ‘As Ukraine’s primary arms supplier and funder, Washington needs to call for immediate negotiations to begin that process.’ Photograph: Mike Segar/Reuters

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War and democracy have always been more comfortable bedfellows than they should be. Our own history makes that perfectly clear.

During the second world war, the US sent Japanese Americans to internment camps. During Vietnam, the FBI surveilled and attacked anti-war and civil rights movements. And the “war on terror” led to a massive assault on civil liberties, especially of Muslim and Arab communities.

The longer wars continue, the harder it is to reclaim those lost liberties. More than 20 years after the US invasion of Afghanistan, the 2001 Patriot Act’s attacks on civil liberties remain and US police departments are more militarized than ever.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Si echamos un vistazo rápido a la información, una mañana cualquiera, podemos encontrar un ensayo de ataque nuclear masivo de Putin, un podcast sobre el uso del frío com arma de guerra contra la población ucrania o las imágenes del último bombardeo programado en áreas civiles antes de darle el primer sorbo al café. La antes impensable “amenaza nuclear” se ha convertido en un fantasma cotidiano. El mundo se desmorona ante nuestros ojos y el agujero negro de la guerra es más grande cada día. Pero, por alguna extraña razón, mientras todo esto sucede, no protestamos. Y yo me pregunto ¿Dónde están las manifestaciones?…  Seguir leyendo »

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Ha vuelto. El conflicto total que nadie deseó está amenazando de nuevo a Europa. Y al orbe entero. Ya lo anunció el año pasado Ken Follett en una sobrecogedora ficción que se ha revelado profética. En su novela Nunca (2021), el escritor galés presentaba la aterradora posibilidad de una reedición de la guerra planetaria, pero caracterizada por un estilo bélico más directo que el desplegado en las anteriores entregas: el apocalipsis atómico universal.

Lo ha vuelto a hacer. La guerra que nadie quiso ha regresado. Así ocurrió la última vez, en 1914 y, nuevamente, en 1939, cuando las dos mayores confrontaciones armadas de la historia devastaron el mundo.…  Seguir leyendo »

Rusia y Ucrania deben negociar

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La guerra en Ucrania está escalando de manera peligrosa. Ucrania está avanzando en el campo de batalla y cada vez está más determinada a expulsar al ejército ruso. Mientras tanto, el Kremlin robustece a sus fuerzas diezmadas en el este de Ucrania, ataca con fuerza las ciudades y la infraestructura crítica del país e insinúa que podría usar armas nucleares. Por su parte, Estados Unidos y sus aliados se apresuran a enviar más armas a Ucrania, preparados, como declararon hace poco, las democracias del G7, para “mantenerse firmes con Ucrania durante el tiempo que sea necesario”.

Ucrania, con la ayuda de Occidente, ha hecho una defensa firme e inspiradora de su soberanía.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Dos superpotencias nucleares enfrentadas sin una vía de salida evidente. Un líder ruso errático que utiliza un lenguaje apocalíptico. Bronca en Naciones Unidas con reproches de estar jugando con el juicio final de un armagedón… La era moderna empezó hace justo sesenta años cuando el mundo se asomó primero al abismo de la destrucción mutua asegurada antes de engañarse durante la 'posguerra fría' con la idea de que las armas nucleares eran algo del pasado, irrelevantes y condenadas a desaparecer por sí mismas.

Durante trece días del mes de octubre de 1962, ante el despliegue soviético de armas nucleares en la isla de Cuba, Washington y Moscú llevaron su antagonismo hasta el límite.…  Seguir leyendo »

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El legendario jefe del estado mayor prusiano Helmuth von Moltke el Viejo decía que ningún plan de batalla sobrevive al primer contacto con el enemigo. Se refería a que los comandantes que ganan las guerras no necesariamente son los que tienen los mejores planes iniciales, sino aquellos que se adaptan rápidamente a la nueva información y a las condiciones en el terreno.

La brillante contraofensiva del ejército ucraniano, que ha obligado a las tropas rusas a retirarse en Kyiv, en el este y en el sur de Ucrania, es un buen ejemplo. Un ejemplo menos brillante es el esfuerzo de Occidente por utilizar sanciones comerciales y financieras para dificultar la capacidad de Rusia de llevar adelante la guerra.…  Seguir leyendo »

It’s Time to Bring Russia and Ukraine to the Negotiating Table

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The war in Ukraine is dangerously escalating. Ukraine is advancing on the battlefield and is growing only more determined to expel Russian troops. In the meantime, the Kremlin reinforces its beleaguered forces in eastern Ukraine, pounds Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, and hints at the possible use of nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the United States and its allies are speeding more weapons to Ukraine, prepared, as the Group of 7 leading democracies recently stated, to “stand firmly with Ukraine for as long as it takes”.

Ukraine, with the West’s help, has put up a staunch and inspiring defense of its sovereignty. But the risk of a wider war between NATO and Russia is rising by the day, as is the risk that economic blowback from a prolonged war could undermine Western democracy.…  Seguir leyendo »

Pekín no abandonará a Moscú

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En los últimos años, China y Rusia han hecho todo lo posible por mostrar la cercanía de su relación. No hay mejor ejemplo de ello que la declaración conjunta emitida el 4 de febrero por Xi Jinping y Vladímir Putin durante los Juegos Olímpicos de Invierno de 2022 en Pekín, apenas unas semanas antes de que Putin iniciara su guerra contra Ucrania. Xi ha llamado a Putin su “mejor y más íntimo amigo”. Se han reunido casi 40 veces desde 2013. Las dos partes disfrutan de una “amistad sin límites” y consideran que su “asociación estratégica integral de coordinación para la nueva era” es un factor positivo en la escena internacional.…  Seguir leyendo »

Natalia Horban and her daughter Alina spent two hours in an elevator in their building when the power went out. (Natalia Horban)

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Millions of ordinary Ukrainians are fighting a new war this month, far from the front lines. They’re fighting cold and darkness rather than enemy soldiers and bullets and artillery. But if the first results are any indication, they’ll be up to the task.

To see what this war looks like for many of us, you just have to step into an elevator. Natalia Horban, 36, and her 18-month-old daughter Alina returned to their apartment building after a late morning walk last week. They arrived 10 minutes before noon, when a scheduled blackout was supposed to start. But no sooner had they entered their elevator than the power gave out.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks with soldiers at a military training area in the Ryazan region in Russia on Oct. 20. (Mikhail Klimentyev/AP)

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Civilians don’t talk much about military doctrine, but military professionals know how important it is. This is the intellectual concept that governs the training and equipping of military forces. Get the doctrine right and troops have a major edge in battle. Get it wrong and they have a major, possibly insuperable disadvantage.

The U.S. Army got it very much right before the 1991 Gulf War. Its AirLand Battle doctrine, adopted in 1982, anticipated fast-moving operations by ground forces supported by air forces using precision-guided munitions. The U.S. Army had been planning to fight such a conflict on the plains of Europe against the Red Army, but it proved ideally suited for fighting the Soviet-equipped Iraqi Army in the deserts of Arabia.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, June 2022. Mikhail Metzel / Sputnik/ Reuters

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Can Russian President Vladimir Putin lose the war in Ukraine and retain power? As Ukraine’s driving counteroffensive erodes Russia’s position on the battlefield, that question is getting increasing attention. Discussion has focused on the possibility of a coup, whether an armed insurrection by disgruntled Russian generals or a mutiny by Kremlin insiders. Although not impossible, neither of these is currently very likely. In fact, a different danger is more plausible: a comprehensive meltdown of the regime, as multiple challenges overwhelm its capacity to react and dysfunction drains confidence in Putin’s leadership.

NO COUP FOR YOU

Losing a war is rarely a smart career move.…  Seguir leyendo »

In front of the Motherland Monument in central Kyiv, Ukraine. Lynsey Addario for The New York Times

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How did people imagine Ukraine before Feb. 24, 2022? If pressed, some might have conjured mail-order brides and shaven-head gangsters roaming one big post-Soviet Chernobyl. But most probably didn’t think even that; instead, they didn’t imagine Ukraine at all. The country popped up on most people’s radar only in connection to Western political scandals and Russian war making. Few Westerners visited it, and those who did might have concluded — as one Western journalist confessed to me recently — that “Ukraine was just like Russia but without all the crap”.

How do people imagine Ukrainians today? As brave fighters who are standing up to a bully, perhaps, defiant modern-day Cossacks in their colorful embroidered shirts, a bit wild but still safely European.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Si algo ha quedado claro con la invasión rusa de Ucrania es el despotismo y el descaro con el que están actuando las tropas del ejército federal. La soberbia con la que se planeó y ejecutó la invasión les ha hecho ignorar cualquier medida para ocultar los crímenes que, desde el primer día, están cometiendo contra la población ucraniana.

Pero estos crímenes son susceptibles de ser perseguidos por la Corte Penal Internacional (CPI) ya que, si bien ni Rusia ni Ucrania son parte, el 8 de septiembre de 2015 Ucrania presentó una declaración por la que aceptaba la jurisdicción de la CPI, lo que convierte los actos allí desarrollados en competencia directa de este tribunal.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russia’s Dangerous Decline

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At a White House ceremony on August 9, days after the U.S. Senate agreed in a near-unanimous vote to ratify the expansion of NATO to include Finland and Sweden, U.S. President Joe Biden highlighted how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had backfired on Russian President Vladimir Putin. “He’s getting exactly what he did not want”, Biden announced. “He wanted the Finlandization of NATO, but he’s getting the NATOization of Finland, along with Sweden”. Indeed, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a massive strategic blunder, leaving Russia militarily, economically, and geopolitically weaker.

Ukraine’s offensive in Kharkiv in September underscored the magnitude of Putin’s error.…  Seguir leyendo »

Las ambigüedades del Papa

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Si el Diablo existe, seguro que se parece a Vladímir Putin; solo el Papa Francisco parece dudar a la hora de reconocerlo. ¿No tiene Putin los atributos del Mal y va sembrando mal por mal, despreciando completamente la verdad, la realidad, con especial predilección por el asesinato de mujeres y niños? Como Lenin en su época –una tradición del Partido Comunista Ruso, sin duda–, Putin pide que se masacre a los inocentes, a la población civil, para asustar al mayor número de gente. Poco importa si esos inocentes son rusos o ucranianos, civiles o militares. ¿Qué dice el Papa? Poca cosa.…  Seguir leyendo »