The death of 298 innocent civilians on Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 was the direct result of Vladimir V. Putin’s reckless geopolitical gamble in Eastern Ukraine — as well as the West’s weakness in countering him.
After the Cold War ended, most Western leaders optimistically assumed that Russia would develop like other former Eastern Bloc nations that embraced democracy and the market economy. This attitude was bolstered by new economic opportunities in Russia, particularly in the oil and gas sectors. As a result, European and Russian economic interdependence was encouraged.
When Russia invaded and annexed Crimea earlier this year, the West was by and large taken by surprise. Russia seized the territory of an independent country in violation of the core principles of the postwar global order without facing any serious consequences. It then proceeded to further undermine the sovereignty of Ukraine. Europe, and to a lesser extent America, were so deeply dependent on economic ties with Russia that they seemed unable and unwilling to meet the challenge.
Mr. Putin calculated that he could get away with annexation, considering that he faced no serious consequences after the war against Georgia in 2008, when South Ossetia and Abkhazia came under Russian control and Georgian ambitions to join the European Union and NATO were curtailed. Mr. Putin applied these lessons to Ukraine.
The seizure of Crimea was also made possible by the Russian media’s brainwashing of viewers, and huge increases in the Russian military budget after 2008. After a smooth occupation of Crimea, with overwhelming domestic support, Mr. Putin began destabilizing Ukraine’s eastern regions. Simultaneously, Russia increased its military activity in the Baltic Sea and near Finland, sending messages to its European neighbors to stay out of its sphere of influence.
The Western response mainly consisted of diplomatic lip service and relatively weak sanctions that failed to change Russia’s tactics or dent Mr. Putin’s support at home.
Without Russian intelligence, weaponry, propaganda and political and economic support, entities like the so-called Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk would never have survived more than a few weeks.
By failing to stop Russia from moving men and matériel, including heavy weaponry, across the border the West made the tragedy of Flight 17 possible.
The West must remove its rose-colored glasses and see Russia for what it is: a revanchist power ruled by a political elite whose popularity is based on aggressive anti-Western propaganda and skillful manipulation of the media. Russia views foreign policy as a zero-sum game and uses European energy dependency as a tool to achieve its aims. It is ruled by men who do not respect human life and dignity; to them, the downing of Flight 17 is merely collateral damage in wider geopolitical game.
Expecting full cooperation from Russia in the crash investigation was never reasonable; that would have undermined the perception of strong Russian leadership in the eyes of those who have been fooled into believing in Russia’s renaissance as a renewed world power.
The death of nearly 300 innocent airplane passengers demands more than strong words. The European Union and the United States must take action; further hesitation will only make the situation worse.
First, America and Europe must demand an investigation of who gave the order and who executed the strike on Flight 17.
Second, Russia must immediately shut down its border with Ukraine to any movement of military equipment and international observers should be sent to monitor the border.
Third, Europe and America must support reform in Ukraine. There is money available and Ukrainians could draw on the experience of countries like Poland and Baltic states to assist in their transition.
Fourth, after more stringent anti-Russian sanctions are agreed upon, there must be trans-Atlantic solidarity to mitigate any Russian economic or political pressure on European member states that depend on Russian energy supplies.
Fifth, Europeans must realize that their fading soft power will decrease even faster without a significant increase of their military budgets and hard-power capabilities. A first step would be a stronger and more permanent NATO presence in Poland and the Baltic states.
Finally, the Russian public should be made aware that the West is the last thing they need to worry about. America and Europe pose no threat to them. It is the policies of the current Russian political elite that risk destabilizing Russia’s economy and jeopardizing the prosperity of its people.
The post-Cold War era of high hopes and an interdependent world has sadly come to an end. The downing of Flight 17 must be a turning point. It should serve as a reminder to Russia that the European Union and the United States are capable of enforcing their policies. Failing to do so will make them less powerful and less relevant global players.
Artis Pabriks, a member of the European Parliament, is the former foreign minister and defense minister of Latvia.