Even if Erdogan is defeated, Turkey is still up for grabs

A girl applauds as supporters of presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu attend a rally on Thursday in Bursa, Turkey, ahead of Sunday's election. (Murad Sezer/Reuters)
A girl applauds as supporters of presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu attend a rally on Thursday in Bursa, Turkey, ahead of Sunday's election. (Murad Sezer/Reuters)

The fall of populist President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, should it come in Sunday’s closely watched and closely contested election, could put Turkey firmly back on a democratic path. But Turkey’s actual geopolitical orientation is still up in the air. Western partners have an opportunity to help steer a post-Erdogan Turkey in the right direction.

They have the tools to do it.

In his first days as president, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), has promised to reestablish the rule of law. His broad six-party coalition has committed to releasing those wrongfully jailed under Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and to lift restrictions on key freedoms. It has also promised to repair the autonomy of various institutions that have come under pressure from Erdogan’s government, including the judiciary. Given the Biden administration’s commitment to supporting democracies against autocracy, all of these changes would no doubt be warmly welcomed.

But the geopolitical calculus is less clear. Over the past decade, Erdogan has gradually steered Turkey away from the United States and Europe. Especially since the 2016 failed coup attempt in Turkey, he has formed a bond with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the two leaders often meeting and agreeing on power-sharing deals in Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus. And although Turkey has provided drones and other military hardware to Ukraine, Erdogan has refused to participate in U.S.-led sanctions targeting Russia, providing the latter with valuable access to global markets.

Kilicdaroglu is no friend of Russia. In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, he said that Ankara would comply with Western decisions on sanctions. He has also pledged to steer Turkey closer to NATO and the European Union. He vowed to approve Sweden’s NATO accession — held up by Erdogan — before the alliance’s summit in July.

But Turkey’s deep economic bonds with Russia could prevent it from aligning completely with the West. In the Wall Street Journal interview, Kilicdaroglu gave a hint of how difficult this balancing act would be. He said that he would try to maintain Turkish investments in Russia, while supporting the broader Russia sanctions policy. Business realities would clearly limit his room for maneuver.

The prospect of U.S.-Turkish rapprochement is sure to upset Putin, who will be tempted to derail a Kilicdaroglu presidency. However, expect Putin to avoid directly confronting Turkey. Historically speaking, when Russia threatens the Turks, the latter fully align with the West.

Instead, Putin is likely to turn to his commercial weapon to target Turkey’s economy. Putin might ban tourist visits to Turkey (probably citing “security concerns”) and could seek to limit agricultural imports. He might also demand immediate payment of Ankara’s delayed energy bills — perhaps up to $4 billion — and impose higher prices on natural gas exports to Turkey. These steps would cost Turkey’s already fragile economy tens of billion dollars, probably triggering a currency crisis.

All of this has to be in the forefront of Kilicdaroglu’s mind. He knows that no coalition government has finished its full term since the country’s first coalition-led administration appeared on the scene in the 1960s. An economic meltdown, combined with coalition squabbling, would render his administration feeble and ineffective in the eyes of the electorate. These developments could allow Erdogan to stage a political comeback in the fashion of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The E.U. and the United States could, however, help make Turkey’s transition to democracy irreversible.

Since the 1995 customs union, which covers only industrial goods, economic ties have formed the bedrock of E.U.-Turkey relations. Kilicdaroglu wants to deepen the union to also cover services. The E.U. should signal at the onset of a Kilicdaroglu presidency its willingness to do just that.

Washington could also play a key role — by restoring defense ties, the bedrock of U.S.-Turkey relations. One of the festering issues in the relationship centers on Erdogan’s decision to purchase the S-400 missile defense system from Russia. The United States expelled Turkey from its F-35 fighter jet program in 2019, and the next year slapped sanctions on Turkey’s defense industry.

The Biden administration ought to work hard on a way out of this impasse. If Kilicdaroglu would commit to not activating the S-400s, and agree to putting them under eventual joint custody with NATO, Washington ought to green-light Ankara’s request to purchase F-16 and F-35 fighter planes.

Gestures such as these won’t remove all friction between Turkey and its partners. For example, the United States’ support for the Syria-based Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) is sure to remain a sticking point in the relationship.

But taken together, both moves would send powerful signals to markets. Global investors have been paying close attention to Turkey’s geopolitical orientation, worried about what a drift into Russia’s orbit means for long-term returns. Showing that Turkey is firmly back in the transatlantic fold would invite large cash inflows — inflows that could help offset any critical losses Putin might inflict.

Although a Kilicdaroglu presidency is packed with uncertainties, if Turkey’s citizens pick democracy over autocracy, the United States and Europe must support this choice. A more democratic Turkey is within reach, and would benefit everyone.

Soner Cagaptay is the author of “A Sultan in Autumn: Erdogan Faces Turkey’s Uncontainable Forces”.

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