Hopes of replacing violence with dialogue in Somalia are focusing on a much-delayed national reconciliation congress now scheduled to take place in Mogadishu next week. But diplomats and officials admit the nascent peace process could be stillborn if what Lord Triesman, Britain's minister for Africa, describes as "wreckers and spoilers" inside and outside the country prevail.
Speaking after a meeting in London this week of the international contact group for Somalia, Jendayi Frazer, the assistant US secretary of state for African affairs, said Eritrea was leading the pack of outsider ne'er-do-wells, harbouring "extremist elements" linked to violent Islamist groups inside Somalia. Hardline Islamists have threatened to wage an Iraq-style insurgency and have started using suicide bombers.
Eritrea is an old foe of Ethiopia, whose troops invaded Somalia last winter with tacit US backing to oust the Somali Council of Islamic Courts (SCIC), which had taken control of much of the country. Ms Frazer added that the Islamists, whom the US says have links to al-Qaida, were also getting help from sympathisers from the Somali diaspora, including in the US, and from some Gulf states.
Ethiopia's continuing troop presence is resented by Somalia's Muslim majority, which views it as an occupation and questions Addis Ababa's long-term intentions. Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's prime minister, had promised a quick in-and-out operation, but an upsurge in resistance in the spring and the failure of the African Union (AU) to deploy sufficient peacekeepers dispelled that notion.
Ethiopia maintains "the vast majority" of its troops have already withdrawn. Those remaining in Mogadishu are engaged in tracking down remaining "mujahideen and al-Shabaab extremists", disarmament of clan militias and police training, it said in a recent statement. "Generally, the rest of Somalia is enjoying the fruits of peace."
But that optimistic assessment was belied by this week's attempted assassination of Ali Mohammad Gedi, prime minister of the western-backed transitional federal government (TFG), and by the latest UN figures indicating that 300,000 people from Mogadishu have yet to return to their homes and 850,000 nationwide remain dependent on international food aid.
Visiting Mogadishu this week, Mr Meles urged the TFG and clan elders to turn the reconciliation congress into a watershed. "If you make peace, I will withdraw my troops as soon as possible," he was quoted as saying. Speaking in London, Lord Triesman said the contact group believed the Ethiopians would leave as soon as additional AU peacekeepers deployed. "Ethiopia has no desire to stay but cannot afford the power vacuum if it simply left," he said.
In a communique issued after its meeting, the contact group - which includes the US, Britain, the EU, the AU and former colonial power Italy - said planning for a follow-on UN peacekeeping force and additional funding for the AU soldiers already there were matters of urgency. It also undertook to pay for the reconciliation congress.
Ms Frazer said the US would provide more than $100m in assistance to Somalia this year, including $57m for the AU force. But she suggested that internal and external "wreckers" aside, Somalia's mainstream political factions could be their own worst enemies. The US envoy said her government was particularly "disheartened" by the TFG's arrest this week of Abdi Iman, a senior member of Mogadishu's influential Hawiye clan and the closure of three local broadcasters for allegedly "supporting terrorism".
The contact group said next week's congress, originally scheduled for April, was "the primary vehicle [for the TFG] to demonstrate an inclusive approach to governance, help deliver security and advance political reconciliation". But Lord Triesman stressed that only those who "renounce violence" should participate in the process - and outsiders with their own agendas should steer clear. "We can do without anybody fighting their proxy wars on Somalian territory," he said.
Somalia's foreign minister, Hussein Badyill, had given a personal pledge that the congress would go ahead on time, his spokesman said today. British sources said the London talks had taken place in "a more positive atmosphere" than in the past and that a stronger consensus on the way forward was emerging.
But the big test will be whether the various clans, sub-clans and religious and other factions can share power instead of fighting over it. "The TFG people know that some of them are going to have move aside," a diplomat said. "All the people of Somalia must have a share in the process."
Simon Tisdall