THE NEW YORK TIMES, 08/10/06
What should be the Republican strategy during the crucial final month of the campaign? Prominent Republicans and political analysts offer their advice.
1) Face the Wave
By Jennifer Grossman, speechwriter for President George H. W. Bush from 1992 to 1993.
WHAT should be the Republican strategy in November? Duckdive or turtle. Those are the choices surfers have when they can’t scratch over huge closeout waves. And that’s what this election will be for Republicans: a rogue cleanup set that will sweep feeble and indecisive political paddlers to shore.
It becomes clearer every day that House Republicans will fail to take the kinds of measures that might minimize political fallout from the Mark Foley Follies. Like forcing Dennis Hastert’s resignation. Or passing a statute that makes sexual solicitation of a page or intern by an elected congressman immediate grounds for removal.
Such dramatic, emphatic, “I really get it” actions might buy Republicans enough time to credibly return the focus to the economy, or to immigration, or to the fight against radical Islamic nihilism. But at present the party remains stuck in defensive blame shifting — what Jack Welch identified as the third stage of crisis management (after denial and containment). Unless the House can bring itself to face the fourth stage — blood (in this case, Mr. Hastert’s) on the floor — voters will wield the electoral ax themselves. Even that might not be so bad. Remember: from the ashes of the Nixon resignation, Ronald Reagan rose just six years later.
2) Hang Tough
By Mark Salter, chief of staff to Senator John McCain.
CONDEMN the Foley scandal as the egregious abuses of one man, but don’t pretend that the failure to take earlier action wasn’t anyone’s fault. Apologize for sins of omission — but stress that Republicans would never intentionally allow such behavior.
Failure in Iraq would be catastrophic. But if it’s a choice between defeat today or defeat tomorrow, the Democrats’ appeal to quit sooner will seem the more practical plan. Concede obvious errors in prosecuting the war, demand accountability from officials and pledge support for the changes necessary to hold territory and improve security. Commit to expanding the Army and Marine Corps and help pay for this by banning earmarks and changing wasteful procurement policies.
John Bolton has done a good job at the United Nations and will strike voters as the right man for an often feckless institution that welcomes anti-American tirades from petty dictators. Democrats blocked his nomination. Hold them accountable.
We have provided a fence and more border agents, but we must do more to secure our borders while we develop a temporary worker plan and a program to impose responsibilities on illegal aliens in exchange for a place at the rear of the citizenship line.
Shock the voters. Admit we have spent too much of their money. Promise to quit acting like Democrats and start acting like the penny-pinching managers they expect us to be.
Remind voters we remain the party best able to provide effective governance in a time of change, instability and war, and that we have not become just the party of government, valuing power over principles.
3) All Due Respect
By Ari Fleischer, press secretary to President Bush from 2001 to 2003.
TAKE the number of children you have, multiply it by $500 and send the money to Uncle Sam. If you’re married, the marriage penalty is coming back. Your income tax rate? That goes up too. All this, if the Democrats win.
The Bush tax cuts will terminate three years after the next Congress convenes. The $1,000 per child tax credit will drop to $500, marriage-penalty relief goes away, and all income tax rates go up. Republicans have vowed to make the tax cuts permanent. Democrats have pledged to reverse them. If I were running for Congress, that would be part of my message.
I’d remind elderly voters that their increasingly popular new prescription drug benefit was brought to them thanks to a Republican initiative, delivered through private markets, not government controls.
As for war and peace, stand strong. Whether it was the nuclear freeze, opposition to the liberation of Kuwait, or their cut and run proposals in Iraq, Democrats choose wrongly on foreign policy and defense. The country wants to win in Iraq and I’d proudly support our mission, confident we’ll be victorious if we act long-term. Democratic control will lead to retreat.
I’d enjoy clashing with my opponent but, above all, I would treat him or her with respect. At the end of the day, we’re all in this together.
4) Cry 'Pelosi'.
By Lisa Schiffren, speechwriter for Vice President Dan Quayle from 1991 to 1992.
FIRST, get up from that defensive crouch. Until last week no one had ever heard of Mark Foley. He’s been booted. His actions were immoral and perhaps criminal. But lewd e-mail messages don’t have the graphic sexual imagery of, say, cigars or stained dresses. Silently thank Bill Clinton for lowering the moral bar for officeholders.
It’s time to project strength abroad. There is a fine line between “staying the course” and doing the same thing over and over and hoping for a different result. Mr. President, send a lot of troops to Iraq. Next week. Squash some insurgents.
Candidates should incessantly mention that there have been ZERO terrorist attacks since 9/11 — a result of administration policy. And the Bush tax cuts have created a strong economy with two (!) record closings of the Dow this week.
Remind conservatives, who may be annoyed at you, that “sending a message” will make Nancy Pelosi the speaker of the House. Ms. Pelosi’s Democrats have no plan for Iraq, except leaving; they will not contain immigration and their recently clarified position on domestic security is that we shouldn’t wiretap terrorists, but must read the e-mail correspondence of gay congressmen.
As for spending, there should have been much less of it. Your base is livid about this — though it confirms what we think about the evils of government. If someone brings it up, remind voters that, while the Republicans have spent like a drunken sailor, Democrats will do worse, cold sober.
Finally, do not go to the mats for Dennis Hastert. Leak rumors that the next speaker (or, if it comes to that, minority leader) will be more principled and articulate than Mr. Hastert, a former wrestling coach, while having more coach-like skill in keeping the team out of trouble.
5) Back to Basisc.
By Dick Armey, former majority lider of the House of Representatives and chairmen of Freedoms Works.
REPUBLICANS face a disillusioned base that wonders why it has been abandoned. Despite Republican control of the White House, Senate and House, federal spending has increased 45 percent since 2001 and government is more intrusive in the everyday lives of Americans. Meanwhile, even the Bush tax cuts have yet to be made permanent.
Let’s be frank. America is facing a catastrophic fiscal meltdown that has the power to cripple our society. Americans are waiting for a serious, adult debate on retirement security and the appropriate size and scope of government.
Republicans need to return to the ideas that inspire their voters — lower taxes, less government, more freedom. That vision brought us into the majority in the first place. Reining in federal spending, reforming a broken tax code, passing realistic immigration reform and creating an ownership society through entitlement reform are all big ideas that resonate with voters. When conservatives abandon limited government principles, we lose our credibility with voters. It’s an Armey’s Axiom: When we act like us, we win. When we act like them, we lose.
6) Matchbook Strategy.
By Rich Bond, chairman of the Republican National Commitee from 1992 to 1993.
ED KING, a conservative Democrat, defeated Michael Dukakis, the incumbent governor of Massachusetts, in 1978 by going on offense with what he referred to as his “matchbook cover.” Mr. King urged voters to write his core message on the back of their matchbook covers: “Cut taxes, cut spending, kill killers.”
In order not to get burned in the midterm elections, Republicans need to be on offense with a simple, believable, compelling message: “Tough on terror, economic expansion, dangerous Democrats.”
When it comes to terrorism, border security and hanging tough in Iraq are critical. Eliminating the threat posed by a nuclear Iran and North Korea must become a motivating issue among Americans.
On the economy, remind voters of plummeting gas prices, historically low levels of unemployment and a roaring stock market.
On dangerous Democrats, remind voters of the other party’s lack of a constructive alternative agenda. Break the Democrats’ code. When Democrats say revenues, they mean raise taxes; when they refer to government investment they mean higher federal spending; and when they talk about redeployment of the troops they mean leaving Iraq before our job is done.
This simple and direct matchbook cover will win in November.
7) Wake the Speaker.
By Jay Heiler, chief to staff to Gov. Fife Symington of Arizona from 1996 to 1997.
REPUBLICAN hopes in November have been hanging on terror — terror in the hearts of busy suburbanites considering government by Nancy Pelosi as counseled by Howard Dean. But wait: Representative Mark Foley has sent the nation an instant message, lurid enough to make the Pelosi prospect relatively less chilling, and Mr. Dean ever-so-slightly less grating. How, in less than a month, to remove a page from history?
Only nimble adjustments can save the day.
The House speaker, Dennis Hastert, must account for his sluggish repose in the matter. If the House lawyer should explain that the speaker, between the ages of 13 and 15, was overfed, confined and led into indolence by an unnamed clergyman, we’re in trouble.
A serious word of caution to celebratory Democrats: Our tragicomic capital city is low enough in public esteem these days to bring down all players and drive away all kinds of voters. And while Mr. Foley is a Republican, the electoral Rorschach test on sin and morals skews rather against the left. For us the thing is a shame, but for them it’s more or less a policy. In a turned-around way, Mr. Foley’s behavior might remind a lot of conservative people why they need to vote.
8) Safe at Home.
By Tom Campbell, Republican representative from California from 1989 to 1993 and 1995 to 2001.
THE November House elections have now been nationalized. Republicans won’t win by saying, “Elect the incumbent.” They can still win, however, by embracing the national nature of the contest and emphasizing their strengths: protecting us from terrorism; creating a thriving American economy.
First, there have been no terrorist attacks on America since 9/11. The partisan rebuttal by the Democrats is that this is just good luck. The Republicans should vigorously respond that the good luck explanation is dangerously irresponsible. There are debatable aspects of the war on terrorism, but the results are not attributable simply to good luck. They are the direct result of steps taken by the president and supported by Congress.
Second, look at our economy. Real economic growth, real personal take-home income, numbers of those employed — all are at record highs. This is also not the result of good luck. The robust economy stems from actions the Republican president and Congress have taken and (wisely) not taken. Republicans let working men and women keep more of the fruits of what they create. Republicans have not built up unnecessary regulations and costs on those who create jobs.
The contest will then be between the Democrats’ national issues (Iraq and management of the House) versus the Republicans’ national issues (protecting us from terrorism and providing more jobs for Americans). Republicans can win that battle.
9) Out With the Old.
By R. Emmett Tyrrell Jr., founder and editor in chief of the American Spectator.
IN the brevity of this encounter let me say that Republicans striving to maintain control of the House and Senate should be mindful of the two historic conditions of the present moment.
First, the Old Order is passing. The political party that has for three generations favored government solutions for all manner of human discomfort is now down to one desideratum, to wit, banish the sinful Republicans from government and restore virtue to public life, virtue as embodied by Bill and Hillary Clinton, George Soros and various aging rock stars. For most Americans, this is a hard sell.
Second, within the Democratic Party, the 1960’s generation is passing. The Clintons, the Gores and John Forbes Kerry have worn out their welcome with a younger generation of Democrats. This rising generation may have no New Deals to propound, but it cites its colossal anger as reason for the electorate to support it. In prosperous and free America, anger is not a fetching political program.
Given these conditions, the Republicans should affirm the New Order that has made them politically numero uno. Affirm growth economics. Affirm national security. Remind the Republican base of the conservative judges who have been confirmed, and rouse that base with the promise of more to come. Finally, reassure the base that the Republicans’ older generation in leadership is giving way to vigorous advocates of libertarian, conservative policies, like Representatives Mike Pence, John Shadegg and Paul Ryan.