Europe sighed in relief on Sunday night when the news broke that Germany’s Social Democratic Party had agreed to negotiate another coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats. Since the inconclusive national elections in September, it had been unclear how long the country with the largest economy in the European Union — and until now, the anchor of its political stability — would need to form a new government.
Hold your breath for a few more months. The relief is premature.
Whatever might come out of the negotiations between Ms. Merkel and Martin Schulz, the leader of the Social Democrats, in the weeks ahead, the government they form is doomed to be the weakest and most unstable Germany has had in decades. The center-left Social Democrats, for one, are in the middle of an existential crisis, and large factions within the party will continue to worry that another coalition will keep them from some much-needed soul-searching.
The second, and more important, driver of insecurity is the chancellor herself. If power is defined by the ability to make others do what they’d rather not, it is becoming clearer by the day that her power is fading.
Some Christian Democrats have become silently rebellious, while others publicly take a significantly tougher stance than the chancellor on issues like migration. A senior cabinet member, who wished not to be named, has told journalists that the race for Ms. Merkel’s successor within the ranks has already begun. (As long as the negotiations continue, the Christian Democrats can replace Ms. Merkel as their choice for chancellor at any time.)
Especially to people outside Germany, who were just getting used to the talk about Ms. Merkel as the new “leader of the free world,” this may come as a shock. Even Germans find the sudden shift surprising. What happened?
Ms. Merkel has long governed slowly, quietly and pragmatically — what Germans call “merkeling through.” But these times call for initiative. She plays her cards close to the vest, at a time when the world welcomes leaders who if anything overshare, but also understand how to communicate with a 24-hour, networked public. It doesn’t help that last year two of Germany’s neighbors, Austria and France, elected younger, more ambitious and more charismatic heads of government.
Some Christian Democrats have become silently rebellious, while others publicly take a significantly tougher stance than the chancellor on issues like migration. A senior cabinet member, who wished not to be named, has told journalists that the race for Ms. Merkel’s successor within the ranks has already begun. (As long as the negotiations continue, the Christian Democrats can replace Ms. Merkel as their choice for chancellor at any time.)
Especially to people outside Germany, who were just getting used to the talk about Ms. Merkel as the new “leader of the free world,” this may come as a shock. Even Germans find the sudden shift surprising. What happened?
Ms. Merkel has long governed slowly, quietly and pragmatically — what Germans call “merkeling through.” But these times call for initiative. She plays her cards close to the vest, at a time when the world welcomes leaders who if anything overshare, but also understand how to communicate with a 24-hour, networked public. It doesn’t help that last year two of Germany’s neighbors, Austria and France, elected younger, more ambitious and more charismatic heads of government.
Then came the negotiations after last year’s elections. Several politicians from the Green Party and the pro-business Liberal Party, with whom the Christian Democrats tried to form a government, raised questions over whether Ms. Merkel was the right fit for Germany’s rapidly shifting political landscape, in which smaller, consensus-seeking “Volksparteien” (people’s parties) are in decline and uncustomary alliances among parties like theirs are the future.
During the coalition talks, a prominent Green Party member, Robert Habeck, recalls in a new book, “There was an astonishing lack of authority.” Instead of addressing conflicts, Ms. Merkel let the negotiators be lulled into complacency. “In the decisive talks,” he said, “nothing was decided.”
Maybe it’s not about her per se — maybe 12 years as a chancellor is too long not to become complacent, no matter who you are. Ms. Merkel’s first comment after Election Day, when her party came in first but also racked up its largest decline in votes ever, was that she was “not disappointed” and that she could not see what needed to change now.
No wonder the public is no longer sure whether Ms. Merkel herself still knows the difference between serenity and fatigue. If one European, after all, has reason to be tired, it is Ms. Merkel.
She certainly has been confusing two things for far too long: quiet and silence. While one might still think it wise for a head of government to stay away from the hastiness of Twitter, to rarely speak to the public at all is the other extreme. With the exception of dutiful TV appearances during the election campaigns, Ms. Merkel speaks so little to the Germans that it appears she doesn’t have anything to say, or doesn’t see a reason to explain herself or doesn’t deem it necessary to convince anyone of her sapience.
All this merges into the impression that she feels she herself embodies the country, similar to a monarch who makes rareness a sign of authority. It conveys a whiff of arrogance to tell the Germans, during the migration crisis, “We will manage this,” and then to switch back to loaded silence instead of explaining exactly how “this” will be managed.
That the lady’s not for talking is a particular disappointment to reporters and politicians who have interacted with her in background conversations, where she is outspoken and charming. Had Ms. Merkel displayed more of the talent publicly, she could have spared Germany a good part of the rise of right-wing populism.
In times like these, it is simply not enough for the chancellor to be the country’s first civil servant, particularly not when the electorate calls for action. That is what is on offer from President Emmanuel Macron of France and Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of Austria. Whatever one thinks of their aims (and in Mr. Kurz’s case, of his far-right coalition partner), both manage to convey ambition. During a recent 24-hour stint in Berlin, Mr. Kurz delivered more clear ideas on migration than Ms. Merkel did in the past 24 months. You may take issue with his policies — which are more restrictive than many Germans would like — but at least they are clear.
Ms. Merkel has lost her message over too many issues. There is no reason to believe this is going to change in a shaky coalition with the Social Democrats, unless the chancellor is planning a surprise. After all, she has indicated that this is her last spin on the Berlin merry-go-round. And nobody knows yet how she’ll behave, freed of the pressure to win — or lose — another election. The lady was not for talking. But perhaps, now, for turning?
Jochen Bittner is a political editor for the weekly newspaper Die Zeit and a contributing opinion writer.