Iran’s dictator gives up pretence of democracy

Just before noon on Friday, June 19, the Islamic republic died in Iran. Its death was announced by its “supreme guide”, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had come to praise the system but buried it instead. Khamenei was addressing supporters on the campus of Tehran University, transformed into a mosque for the occasion. Many had expected him to speak as a guide, an arbiter of disputes – a voice for national reconciliation. Instead, he spoke as a rabble rouser and a tinpot despot.

At issue was the June 12 presidential election that millions of Iranians, perhaps a majority, believe was rigged to ensure the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with a two-thirds majority. Since its inception in 1979, the Islamic republic has organised 31 elections at different levels. All have been carefully scripted, with candidates pre-approved by the regime and no independent mechanism for oversight.

Nevertheless, the results were never contested because most Iranians believed the regime would not cheat within the limits set by itself. Elections in the Islamic republic resembled primaries in American political parties in which all candidates are from the same political family but the contest is free and fair. The June 12 election was exceptional because three of the four candidates challenged the results.

Once the initial shock had passed, everyone looked to the supreme leader to find a way out of the impasse. Instead, Khamenei came out with a long lyrical monologue, hailing the election as a “miracle” and a “triumph for Islam”. Never before had Khamenei commented on the results of elections beyond accepting them as an expression of the popular will. The Khomeinist system was supposed to be 80% theocracy and 20% democracy, regardless of how bizarre the combination looked.

On Friday, the 20% democratic part disappeared, as Iran was transformed from an Islamic republic into an Islamic emirate headed by the Emir al-Momeneen (Commander of the Faithful) Ali Khamenei. As Iranians marched in the street in support of more freedom and democracy, Khamenei served notice that he was determined to lead the country in the opposite direction.

A sign that the self-appointed emir wanted to jettison the republican part of the system was there for all to see. The diminutive Ahmadinejad was relegated to the third rung of the faithful praying behind Khamenei. Sandwiched between two mullahs with giant turbans, he was almost hidden from public view. For almost a week the usually voluble Ahmadinejad has been kept off the airwaves. Suddenly the office of the president has become irrelevant. Ahmadinejad is there not because the people wanted him but because the emir found “his views closer to mine than the views of others”.

Khamenei’s decision to kill the Islamic republic may lead Iran into uncharted waters. The move has split the establishment as never before. All prominent figures of the “loyal opposition”, including former presidents Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, boycotted the Friday gathering. Nearly half the members of the Majlis, Iran’s ersatz parliament, were absent – along with most members of the Assembly of Experts, a body of 92 mullahs supposed to supervise the work of the supreme leader. Many senior figures of the military/security establishment were significantly absent, too.

If Khamenei had hoped to intimidate the protesters into accepting the results, he was quickly disappointed. No sooner had the “emirate” been born than millions of people throughout Iran were on the rooftops shouting, “I will die, but won’t accept humiliation!” A week of nationwide protests has claimed at least seven lives. Khamenei’s intervention has been followed by a wave of arrests. The supreme leader has tried to divide the opposition by offering public assurances to Rafsanjani and Ali Akbar Nateq-Nuri, the former parliamentary Speaker, that they would not be prosecuted on corruption charges as threatened by Ahmadinejad. Nevertheless, both men still refuse to endorse Ahmadinejad’s re-election.

As the principal face of the opposition, Mir Hossein Mousavi has come under pressure to wind up the movement. Yesterday Abbas Mohtaj, the head of Iran’s security council, issued a veiled death threat. Zahra Rahnavard, Mousavi’s wife and principal campaign manager, has retaliated by publishing a poem through Twitter and SMS sent to millions of Iranians: “Let the wolves know that in our tribe / If the father dies, his gun will remain / Even if all the men of the tribe are killed / A baby son will remain in the wooden cradle”.

For the past three days the regime has held back its security forces while tightening the lasso around the opposition leadership, especially Mousavi. He is under virtual house arrest.

Today there are two Irans. One is prepared to support Khamenei’s bid to transform the republic into an emirate in the service of the Islamic cause. Then there is a second Iran – one that wishes to cease to be a cause and yearns to be an ordinary nation. This Iran has not yet found its ultimate leaders. For now, it is prepared to bet on Mousavi. The fight over Iran’s future is only beginning.

Amir Taheri, an Iranian journalist.