Nuri al-Maliki’s decision to stand down as prime minister of Iraq is a welcome development. Maliki was a divisive figure. He bears large responsibility for undermining Iraq’s nascent democratic institutions, fabricating accusations to force rivals out of the political process, alienating Sunnis, Kurds and Sadrists, and subverting the command and control of the Iraqi security forces. The prime minister-designate, Haidar al-Abadi, will have to overcome tremendous hurdles to prevent the tragic and bloody disintegration of the country.
But Maliki alone is not to blame for Iraq’s problems. After 2003, US officials and returning Iraqi exiles created the current system based on ethnic and sectarian politics, which resulted in dysfunctional government lacking any political programme and the weakening of national identity. Abadi will have the opportunity to broker a new agreement among Iraq’s elites on how the country should be governed. Power needs to be moved away from the centre to regional and provincial levels.
Given the autonomy exercised by Kurdistan, there needs to be a new framework for the relationship between Baghdad and Erbil. The rest of Iraq needs radical decentralisation of power that would serve to revive more natural local cultures and de-emphasise the destructive solidarities caused by sectarian polarisation. For instance, Anbar is different from Mosul socially and culturally. And given the resources, both could focus on systems of governance to deal with their particular needs. The same can be said about the sociocultural differences between Shia religious cities, such as Karbala and Najaf, and Shia southern cities where tribalism is still strong. The insistence on viewing Shias and Sunnis as monolithic groups prevented many from seeing and investing in the multiple rich identities of Iraqi people.
Some argue that Iraq should be divided into three ethno-sectarian regions. But how would issues of boundaries, oil and water be resolved? In fact, this might be a formula to exacerbate and perpetuate existing conflicts.
It could lead to an impoverished Sunni region that threatens its neighbours, with never-ending conflict between its radical groups, landlords and tribal chiefs; the Shia region could become an Iranian protectorate, with its huge oil wealth a further source of resentment fuelling sectarian divides; and Kurdistan would be a territorially closed state with no access to the sea and dependent on Turkey.
Any new deal should consider ways of distributing oil wealth away from the centre and build a more diverse and viable local economy.
In the meantime, Iraq is faced with the growing threat of Islamic State (formerly known as Isis), which controls about a third of Iraq’s territory. The US and Baghdad are providing the Kurdish peshmerga with air support, weapons and ammunition to help contain the advance of Isis and to protect the Yezidis and Christians. The new prime minister needs to build a consensus among the country’s elite on how to confront Isis and win the support of Iraq’s diverse peoples.
In the end, Isis can only be defeated by Sunnis. To gain their support, the new Iraqi government needs to be inclusive, address the legitimate Sunni grievances and allow the recruitment of local Sunni forces as part of the Iraqi security forces.
The challenges facing the new Iraqi government are huge. It is certain to be a long uphill struggle. Abadi needs to show the people of Iraq and the region that the choice is not simply between an Iranian-backed sectarian regime or Isis. Rather, the best option is power-sharing among elites and decentralised government. And to help him succeed, Abadi will need the support of the US and UK, as well as all of Iraq’s neighbours.
Harith al-Qarawee is a fellow at Harvard's Radcliffe Institute. Emma Sky is a senior fellow at Yale's Jackson Institute. She was governorate coordinator of Kirkuk for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, 2003-2004.